2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#301 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:18 am

CyclonicFury wrote:Remember that many very active to even hyperactive seasons don't even have their first hurricane until August. 2017 did not have a single hurricane until August 9. 2004 did not have its first hurricane until

Environmental conditions could suggest a more active early season than usual, but there's a high chance the Atlantic doesn't have its first hurricane until August 3. Although 2010 had Hurricane Alex in late June/early July, it did not have its second hurricane until August 23. From June to mid-August, SAL outbreaks over the MDR are quite common, and trade winds are often quite strong, which is why we typically don't see significant MDR activity until late August. I can almost guarantee you there will be some season cancelling on this thread in 3-4 months, it happens every year. Even then, that does not mean the season will be quiet.

I still think the season will likely be above average to possibly well above average, but history says it's unlikely we will come close to 1933 or 2005 level activity in terms of ACE.

A season like 1933 or even 2005 is the least likely to happen in terms of ACE but track wise it they might be good analog years. In terms of ACE a season like 2004 or 2017 which featured similar total ACE units 227 and 225 respectively isn’t out of the realm of possibilities but especially the closer we get to the La Niña threshold and depending on how favorable the Atlantic is overall besides the current state of the SST anomalies.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#302 Postby JPmia » Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:50 am

Anyone want to go out on a limb to talk about potential steering set ups? I know it's early.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#303 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:14 pm

JPmia wrote:Anyone want to go out on a limb to talk about potential steering set ups? I know it's early.

Most are saying a blend of 1933 and 2005, or even 2008. Which would be a west-based season with high Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico activity.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#304 Postby crownweather » Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:51 pm

JPmia wrote:Anyone want to go out on a limb to talk about potential steering set ups? I know it's early.


This is what I came up with for ***possible*** steering ideas (white arrows) when I released my forecast last month.

Image
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#305 Postby Camerooski » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:16 pm

crownweather wrote:
JPmia wrote:Anyone want to go out on a limb to talk about potential steering set ups? I know it's early.


This is what I came up with for ***possible*** steering ideas (white arrows) when I released my forecast last month.

https://i.imgur.com/alxMFPn.png


Wow way to go out of limb there, anyone from the whole Caribbean, Gulf Coast States, and east coast up to NC can get hit. Can we just stop with the click baiting, no one knows how steering is going to be setup. Let's just start with how the ENSO will setup and we will worry about steering when we get there.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#306 Postby crownweather » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:32 pm

Camerooski wrote:
crownweather wrote:
JPmia wrote:Anyone want to go out on a limb to talk about potential steering set ups? I know it's early.


This is what I came up with for ***possible*** steering ideas (white arrows) when I released my forecast last month.

https://i.imgur.com/alxMFPn.png


Wow way to go out of limb there, anyone from the whole Caribbean, Gulf Coast States, and east coast up to NC can get hit. Can we just stop with the click baiting, no one knows how steering is going to be setup. Let's just start with how the ENSO will setup and we will worry about steering when we get there.


If you actually ***read*** the forecast behind that map, you would see it's not click-bait & it's based on model guidance & analog data. Also, someone asked what some of us thought of steering currents this season. But, whatever.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#307 Postby toad strangler » Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:57 pm

crownweather wrote:
Camerooski wrote:
crownweather wrote:
This is what I came up with for ***possible*** steering ideas (white arrows) when I released my forecast last month.

https://i.imgur.com/alxMFPn.png


Wow way to go out of limb there, anyone from the whole Caribbean, Gulf Coast States, and east coast up to NC can get hit. Can we just stop with the click baiting, no one knows how steering is going to be setup. Let's just start with how the ENSO will setup and we will worry about steering when we get there.


If you actually ***read*** the forecast behind that map, you would see it's not click-bait & it's based on model guidance & analog data. Also, someone asked what some of us thought of steering currents this season. But, whatever.


Don't let the noise keep you from posting your thoughts. It's what this thread is supposed to be ..
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#308 Postby crownweather » Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:23 pm

toad strangler wrote:
crownweather wrote:
Camerooski wrote:
Wow way to go out of limb there, anyone from the whole Caribbean, Gulf Coast States, and east coast up to NC can get hit. Can we just stop with the click baiting, no one knows how steering is going to be setup. Let's just start with how the ENSO will setup and we will worry about steering when we get there.



If you actually ***read*** the forecast behind that map, you would see it's not click-bait & it's based on model guidance & analog data. Also, someone asked what some of us thought of steering currents this season. But, whatever.


Don't let the noise keep you from posting your thoughts. It's what this thread is supposed to be ..



Thanks!! I'm sorry for having to be so snarky and rude with my response, but I take great offense to anyone accusing me of putting out click bait. I spent weeks trying to come up with a seasonal forecast and a lot goes into putting together that forecast.

Anyways, I always thought that all opinions on what the season would be like were welcome in this topic.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#309 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:35 pm

While I don't necessarily agree with these pre-season predictions of where storms are gonna go no need to get snarky about it. Pretty much if you are in the Atlantic Basin from Nova Scotia south you need to be on guard every single year. Too many little windows for storms to sneak into and take a track right to your area. Most active years will have impacts many places can't really narrow it down to one.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#310 Postby crownweather » Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:27 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:While I don't necessarily agree with these pre-season predictions of where storms are gonna go no need to get snarky about it. Pretty much if you are in the Atlantic Basin from Nova Scotia south you need to be on guard every single year. Too many little windows for storms to sneak into and take a track right to your area. Most active years will have impacts many places can't really narrow it down to one.


And I completely respect your opinion. Trying to figure out the generalized steering flow & threat areas is something that I've been working on for several years. Some years have been less than stellar with a landfall risk forecast in my seasonal forecast. Other years I've done very well in where areas that were impacted. I think it's a seasonal forecast "problem" that can be solved. I think that eventually we'll be able to get an idea at a seasonal level which parts of the coast & which islands may have a higher risk of a landfall.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#311 Postby USTropics » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:49 am

Using the same composites from my previous post last week, here are some comparisons to seasonal forecasts for this season. Again, this is just looking at the months of June-July only. Below was my original post.

I've created 2 subsets of composites for the months of June and July only. The first subset will be active years, particularly weighted towards active MDR seasons that had at least one MDR storm before August (see list below for details). This has also been weighted towards the modern satellite era. The second subset will be inactive years that had very limited MDR activity or early season activity. The first image will always be the active years selected, followed by inactive years selected.

Active years selected (10 total)
1959 - 5 tropical systems (3 hurricanes) developed before August
1966 - Record 4 hurricanes developed before August
1969 - 4th most active Atlantic season, 2 MDR systems before August
1989 - Active early MDR (2 hurricanes)
1990 - 8 hurricanes total in season and active MDR before August
1995 - 2 hurricanes and 5 total storms before August
2003 - 2 hurricanes and 7 total storms before August
2005 - Most active Atlantic season, 3 hurricanes (2 major) before August
2008 - 2 hurricanes (1 MDR) before August
2010 - 3rd most active Atlantic season, heavy MDR activity

Inactive years selected (10 total)
1977, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1987, 1992, 1994, 2002, 2006, 2014


Sea Surface Temperature
Image

Precipitation
Image

Velocity Potential
Image

Mean Sea Level Pressure
Image

850mb Zonal Wind
Image

200mb Zonal Wind
Image

500mb Heights
Image

Africa Precipitation
Image

Sources:
CFS/CanSIPS Seasonal Forecasts - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
CFS Seasonal Forecasts - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... onal.shtml
ECMWF/CMC/NCEP/UKMO Seasonal Forecasts - https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/
JMA Seasonal Forecasts - https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produ ... zpcmap.php
Composite Images made at - https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#312 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:24 am

A question was asked and an opinion was given regarding steering. Anyone is free to post their thoughts and reasoning behind it. It is fine to disagree, but disrespectful comments will not be tolerated.


Post away
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#313 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:52 pm

Also I'm not sure why there's frustration targeted over people's potential areas of impact graphics (see Bastardi's in the 2020 professional forecasts thread). Because these people have 2005 and 2017 as their analogs.. And where did all these systems go in 2005 and 2017? Not OTS. So while it's tough times right now, the 2020 hurricane season setup is what it is.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#314 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:54 pm

:uarrow: Overall regardless of what happens the message is to prepare for this season now with the COVID-19 virus in mind!
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#315 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:48 pm

This was already mentioned earlier in the thread via a tweet from Eric Webb, but it's probably worth watching for some pre-season Atlantic activity by mid-late May. By then the MJO will be in town, and a rising cell/standing wave will have set itself up over the basin. Would not be surprised at all if we get something out of this (and no, I don't mean those long-range GFS ghost storms :lol:)

Image
Image
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#316 Postby toad strangler » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:04 pm

I'm waiting for NOAA on 5/21 for sure but the train keeps a rollin

 http://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1254465384469745664


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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#317 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:34 pm

toad strangler wrote:I'm waiting for NOAA on 5/21 for sure but the train keeps a rollin

http://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1254465384469745664?s=20

It's interesting that it is showing such a strong trade burst and a strong typhoon at the same time.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#318 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:02 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
toad strangler wrote:I'm waiting for NOAA on 5/21 for sure but the train keeps a rollin

http://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1254465384469745664?s=20

It's interesting that it is showing such a strong trade burst and a strong typhoon at the same time.


Why is interesting having the WB and a Typhoon at the same time?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#319 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:08 am

The MDR has recently cooled down significantly, despite a near-neutral NAO. The expansion of the Hadley cells due to climate change may mean that even a neutral or negative NAO may yield relatively stronger easterlies over the MDR than in the past, particularly during the height of late summer or early fall, as wavelengths also lengthen seasonally. So, contrary to popular expectations, the MDR may not warm substantially or even cool down quite a bit between now and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, depending in part on the state of the NAO. We do know that climate change tends to promote greater stability over the MDR, due in part to the expansion of the Hadley cells, but also related to the warming of the subtropical as well as the tropical North Atlantic, given that the subtropics tend to warm up even faster than the tropics, at least in the Atlantic basin. Overall, the NAO and climate change, along with the absence of La Niña by ASO, may serve to temper not just overall numbers in 2020, but also ACE and the risk of landfalls, given a weaker -PDO signature during neutral ENSO vs. La Niña.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#320 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:46 am

Shell Mound wrote:The MDR has recently cooled down significantly, despite a near-neutral NAO. The expansion of the Hadley cells due to climate change may mean that even a neutral or negative NAO may yield relatively stronger easterlies over the MDR than in the past, particularly during the height of late summer or early fall, as wavelengths also lengthen seasonally. So, contrary to popular expectations, the MDR may not warm substantially or even cool down quite a bit between now and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, depending in part on the state of the NAO. We do know that climate change tends to promote greater stability over the MDR, due in part to the expansion of the Hadley cells, but also related to the warming of the subtropical as well as the tropical North Atlantic, given that the subtropics tend to warm up even faster than the tropics, at least in the Atlantic basin. Overall, the NAO and climate change, along with the absence of La Niña by ASO, may serve to temper not just overall numbers in 2020, but also ACE and the risk of landfalls, given a weaker -PDO signature during neutral ENSO vs. La Niña.
So pretty much flipped from active to less active season
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