BoB: AMPHAN - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/sWf7GsK.png

https://i.imgur.com/eTZfLEJ.png

I see an eye starting to pop out. This thing is taking off really quickly. It’ll easily reach the JTWC’s peak of 85 kt sometime today at this rate.

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/sWf7GsK.png

https://i.imgur.com/eTZfLEJ.png

I see an eye starting to pop out. This thing is taking off really quickly. It’ll easily reach the JTWC’s peak of 85 kt sometime today at this rate.

In this case I don't think it's an eye quite yet. To me, it looks like an area of sink right next to the dominant hot tower

[Highteeld]

Latest met8. Very cold convection

[TorSkk]

01B ONE 200516 1200 10.3N 86.0E IO 40 995

Up to 40 knots

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/sWf7GsK.png

https://i.imgur.com/eTZfLEJ.png

I see an eye starting to pop out. This thing is taking off really quickly. It’ll easily reach the JTWC’s peak of 85 kt sometime today at this rate.

In this case I don't think it's an eye quite yet. To me, it looks like an area of sink right next to the dominant hot tower

Well, I betting we’ll get one soon. Amphan is already very well organized with its center located well within that insanely cold (<-90 C) CDO, and its outflow is excellent as well.

[1900hurricane]

SMAP had 47 kt (10 minute? Don't know if NRL converts them or not) winds over 12 hours ago at 00Z.

[Highteeld]

Looks like Nesdis isn't doing any dvorak fixes. Did they get shutdown due to Coronavirus?

[1900hurricane]

Gotta love your ~90 mb tropopauses.

[Highteeld]

Gotta love your ~90 mb tropopauses.

https://i.imgur.com/QUZTm0l.gif

3000+ j/kg is nothing to sneeze at, either

[TorSkk]

Now named 'Amphan'

[Nancy Smar]

FKIN20 VIDP 161500
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20200516/1200Z
TC: AMPHAN
NR: 03
PSN: N1054 E08618
MOV: NNW03KT
C: 996HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 16/1800Z N1106 E08606
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 040 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 17/0000Z N1142 E08600
FCST MAX WIND +12HRS: 045 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 17/0600Z N1212 E08600
FCST MAX WIND +18HRS: 050 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 17/1200Z N1248 E08600
FCST MAX WIND +24HRS: 060 KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200516/2100Z
TOO: 162030HRS IST

[Abdullah]

You can find them here, on the RSMC New Delhi's website. Advisories are issued every three hours at at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 UTC

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

Thanks for the link! I assume the three hour update is for full cyclones, though, right? For the invest, no update has been published since 6:00 UTC using data from 3:00 UTC of May 15. How often do we receive updates for invests?

A Tropical Weather Outlook is issued once a day at 6Z when there is no cyclone in the AOR. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook is issued twice a day (6Z and 15Z) when there is a Depression, and five times a day (3Z, 6Z, 9Z, 15Z, 21Z) when the Depression has intensified into a Deep Depression or is expected to intensify into one shortly. The previously mentioned Advisories are issued when it reaches cyclonic storm (TS) intensity

Thank you for the detailed response! As our last update was given at 15Z, we should have our next one by 21Z, now, right?

It's expected to be a deep depression by then.

[doomhaMwx]

This would've been named "Nisarga" if IMD hadn't underestimated TS 07A last season. That name is eerily reminiscent of Nargis(2008).
Ugh hopefully I'm just overthinking.

[TorSkk]

Thanks for the link! I assume the three hour update is for full cyclones, though, right? For the invest, no update has been published since 6:00 UTC using data from 3:00 UTC of May 15. How often do we receive updates for invests?

A Tropical Weather Outlook is issued once a day at 6Z when there is no cyclone in the AOR. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook is issued twice a day (6Z and 15Z) when there is a Depression, and five times a day (3Z, 6Z, 9Z, 15Z, 21Z) when the Depression has intensified into a Deep Depression or is expected to intensify into one shortly. The previously mentioned Advisories are issued when it reaches cyclonic storm (TS) intensity

Thank you for the detailed response! As our last update was given at 15Z, we should have our next one by 21Z, now, right?

It's expected to be a deep depression by then.

It's been upgraded to a Cyclonic Storm and therefore the next advisory is scheduled for 18Z

[Yellow Evan]

TPIO10 PGTW 161513

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (E OF INDIA)

B. 16/1415Z

C. 10.99N

D. 86.11E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. T2.5/2.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .40 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.5 DT. MET YIELDS A 2.0 AND PT YIELDS A 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1038Z 9.98N 86.07E SSMS
16/1109Z 9.98N 86.38E SSMS
16/1204Z 10.47N 86.22E MMHS


BERMEA

DT should be T3.5. Not sure what the JTWC is doing.

[Yellow Evan]

[Hayabusa]

[BYG Jacob]

UKMET killing 5 or 6 digit figures of people in their runs I see.

[aspen]

Where’s a good recent microwave pass when you need one? I really want to see how Amphan’s eyewall is coming out.

[Crostorm]