NIO: NISARGA - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2398
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
- Contact:
Re: NIO: 93A - Deep Depression
This is on the verge of becoming a tropical/cyclonic storm if it isn't one yet. The system appears to have established dual outflow channels, and model guidance continue to show quick strengthening to strong TS or if it stays a bit more over water, into a minimal cyclone (hurricane/typhoon) prior to landfall. Fortunately, it's also running out of time for anything more than that with just about 24hrs away from landfall.
0 likes
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.
- Nancy Smar
- Category 5
- Posts: 1081
- Age: 23
- Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Cyclonic Storm
FKIN20 VIDP 020906
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20200602/0600Z
TC: NISARGA
NR: 06
PSN: N1536 E07112
MOV: N07KT
C: 0998HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 02/1200Z N1618 E07118
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 45 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 02/1800Z N1700 E07130
FCST MAX WIND +12HRS: 50 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 03/0000Z N1742 E07200
FCST MAX WIND +18HRS: 55 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 03/0600Z N1830 E07242
FCST MAX WIND +24HRS: 55 KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200602/1500Z
TOO: 021420HRS IST
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20200602/0600Z
TC: NISARGA
NR: 06
PSN: N1536 E07112
MOV: N07KT
C: 0998HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 02/1200Z N1618 E07118
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 45 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 02/1800Z N1700 E07130
FCST MAX WIND +12HRS: 50 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 03/0000Z N1742 E07200
FCST MAX WIND +18HRS: 55 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 03/0600Z N1830 E07242
FCST MAX WIND +24HRS: 55 KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200602/1500Z
TOO: 021420HRS IST
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2398
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
- Contact:
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Cyclonic Storm
Looks like IMD upgraded while I was making the post above. This must be one of the rare cases that IMD upgrades to a TS/CS first before JTWC.
1 likes
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.
- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2398
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
- Contact:
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Cyclonic Storm
It's organizing fast. Probably something like 50kts now.
0 likes
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.
- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2398
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
- Contact:
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Cyclonic Storm
Whoa still no upgrade from JTWC. They reissued the TCFA instead.
93A INVEST 200602 1200 16.1N 71.5E IO 30 999
WTIO21 PGTW 021400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93A) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZJUN2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 71.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 185
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 021056Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED
AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93A WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93A) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZJUN2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 71.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 185
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 021056Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED
AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93A WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
0 likes
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Cyclonic Storm
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Whoa still no upgrade from JTWC. They reissued the TCFA instead.
I don't know what the JTWC is waiting for. That looks better than one or two hurricanes. I can't believe that is not at least a tropical depression, and most likely a tropical storm.
0 likes
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Cyclonic Storm
al78 wrote:Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Whoa still no upgrade from JTWC. They reissued the TCFA instead.
I don't know what the JTWC is waiting for. That looks better than one or two hurricanes. I can't believe that is not at least a tropical depression, and most likely a tropical storm.
The JTWC has realized they’ve been too good lately so they’re trying to balance things out by being absolute **** with this storm.
2 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15441
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Cyclonic Storm
aspen wrote:al78 wrote:Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Whoa still no upgrade from JTWC. They reissued the TCFA instead.
I don't know what the JTWC is waiting for. That looks better than one or two hurricanes. I can't believe that is not at least a tropical depression, and most likely a tropical storm.
The JTWC has realized they’ve been too good lately so they’re trying to balance things out by being absolute **** with this storm.
Lmao. You're right. It's so sad.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Cyclonic Storm
Kingarabian wrote:aspen wrote:al78 wrote:
I don't know what the JTWC is waiting for. That looks better than one or two hurricanes. I can't believe that is not at least a tropical depression, and most likely a tropical storm.
The JTWC has realized they’ve been too good lately so they’re trying to balance things out by being absolute **** with this storm.
Lmao. You're right. It's so sad.
Well, here’s another plus of the Euro blowing it with Nisarga: the JTWC won’t call a Cat 3+ storm a 40-50 kt TS.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2299
- Age: 28
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Cyclonic Storm
When was the last time Mumbai got hit by a cyclone? Seems like Nisarga is hitting a part of India that doesn't usually get hit.
0 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2398
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
- Contact:
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Severe Cyclonic Storm
02A NISARGA 200603 0000 17.2N 72.1E IO 55 986
0 likes
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.
- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2398
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
- Contact:
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Severe Cyclonic Storm
It's likely to hit land as a cyclone at this rate. Latest SATCON estimate is already at 60kts, but that was about 5hrs ago.
Fortunately for Mumbai, looks like the strongest winds will miss the city.
Fortunately for Mumbai, looks like the strongest winds will miss the city.
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 06022115
SATCON: MSLP = 982 hPa MSW = 59 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 58.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 61 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 155 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA
Date (mmddhhmm): 06022115
SATCON: MSLP = 982 hPa MSW = 59 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 58.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 61 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 155 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA
0 likes
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Severe Cyclonic Storm
The 2048Z ATMS estimate was almost double the initial 1800Z JTWC analysis.
1 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3614
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Severe Cyclonic Storm
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2398
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
- Contact:
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Severe Cyclonic Storm
The eye of Nisarga is now crossing the Maharashtra coast about 120km south of Mumbai city this Wednesday afternoon IST. Now 75kts per JTWC. This one really pulled it off in the last 24 hours! Sadly, IMD is underestimating it as they only have it as a 55kts SCS as of 06Z.
02A NISARGA 200603 0600 17.9N 72.9E IO 75 975
0 likes
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3614
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Severe Cyclonic Storm
3 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2398
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
- Contact:
- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2398
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
- Contact:
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Cyclonic Storm
galaxy401 wrote:When was the last time Mumbai got hit by a cyclone? Seems like Nisarga is hitting a part of India that doesn't usually get hit.
If Nisarga directly hit Mumbai, but fortunately it did not, it would definitely be the strongest tropical cyclone to do so in a very long time. Many Indian media outlets have called for Nisarga to be the first tropical cyclone (I presume defined by them as at least 35kts) to hit Mumbai since record keeping began in 1891 (at least in the month of June) with reference to IMD's Cyclone Atlas. However, there are mentions of a "severe storm" in November 1948 that appears to have caused substantial impacts to the city. According to this article, analysis of IMD data shows that the 1948 system could have been at least a 65kt cyclone that passed within 100km of Mumbai, and there were similar others in 1903 and 1940.
The storm tracks below are based on JTWC data from 1979-2015. JTWC's records for the NIO does not go back as far as IMD's, but it's also clear here that Mumbai is rarely struck by tropical storms, let alone cyclones (≥65kts). Actually, the whole west coast of India rarely sees landfall probably with the exception of Gujarat state.
Image source
0 likes
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3614
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Severe Cyclonic Storm
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: NIO: NISARGA - Severe Cyclonic Storm
I maintain the Tropical Storm Risk website which gets its real time tropical cyclone data from the JTWC and the NHC. As expected, I have received several e-mails to the helpdesk yesterday as to why we haven't issued any alerts or put the storm on our website. Thanks JTWC, better late than never I suppose, at least it is on there at the time of landfall.
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 64 guests