2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1270740329579319300

[AutoPenalti]

Yikes.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1270736950492889089

Wouldn't that amplify SAL outbreaks?

[weathaguyry]

The ITCZ will move north, and the SAL outbreaks will be stronger and more widespread going into July, it happens every year. It all depends on what happens as we move out of July and into August. Will strong SAL outbreaks persist into August and force dry, sinking air over the MDR/Caribbean, or will they wane quickly and allow for favorable conditions to setup over the MDR/Caribbean around mid-August? The answer to this question will likely be a significant factor in whether we have a season with slightly above normal conditions, or a hyperactive one.

[Hammy]

The ITCZ will move north, and the SAL outbreaks will be stronger and more widespread going into July, it happens every year. It all depends on what happens as we move out of July and into August. Will strong SAL outbreaks persist into August and force dry, sinking air over the MDR/Caribbean, or will they wane quickly and allow for favorable conditions to setup over the MDR/Caribbean around mid-August? The answer to this question will likely be a significant factor in whether we have a season with slightly above normal conditions, or a hyperactive one.

It's been abnormally far north the last two hurricane seasons which has resulted in largely quiet July/August. If it's starting out farther south this year that might translate to July being quiet but having an earlier start (late Jul/early Aug?) to the MDR and less dust overall compared to the last few seasons.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1270771793800892417

[CyclonicFury]

New month, same old Euro.

[captainbarbossa19]

I posted this list last year, and I think it's time to do so again because the cycle has started again.

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

[TheStormExpert]

New month, same old Euro.
https://i.imgur.com/LsETdqr_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

So it shows a La Niña with an unfavorable Atlantic?

[SFLcane]

Euro and it’s dry bias are out to lunch.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 64705?s=21

[TheStormExpert]

Euro and it’s dry bias are out to lunch.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 64705?s=21

The UKMET too looks a little biased like the Euro as it doesn’t look as favorable as the NMME.

[SFLcane]

Euro and it’s dry bias are out to lunch.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 64705?s=21

The UKMET too looks a little biased like the Euro as it doesn’t look as favorable as the NMME.

That could mean the NMME is too high. UKMET, like Euro, doesn't show the Atlantic warming much. Actually cools a little. That could cap things from getting too crazy if it happens.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro and it’s dry bias are out to lunch.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 64705?s=21

The UKMET too looks a little biased like the Euro as it doesn’t look as favorable as the NMME.

That could mean the NMME is too high. UKMET, like Euro, doesn't show the Atlantic warming much. Actually cools a little. That could cap things from getting too crazy if it happens.

Would make sense considering the NAO is going positive and is expected to stay mostly positive for a extended period, so some cooling should be expected. How much is yet to be seen though. Still think this season is definitely above average but likely below the hyperactive threshold in terms of ACE. In other words the NMME is probably too bullish while the Euro is not bullish enough, so a compromise seems likely.

[MarioProtVI]

The fact we had an AOI in the MDR from a tropical wave in June is a bit alarming, to say the least. Possible indicator of a more favorable/active MDR this season?

[CyclonicFury]

The June UKMET run for ASO showed a much wetter MDR than its May run, FWIW.

May run


June run

[TheStormExpert]

The June UKMET run for ASO showed a much wetter MDR than its May run, FWIW.

May run
https://i.imgur.com/60MoZ5z.png

June run
https://i.imgur.com/VZFZJIK.png

What really sticks out is that dry tongue is gone near the equator off the west coast of Africa.

[hurricanes1234]

http://imgur.com/a/Zy0LcXr

The Parade of the Waves

By the way, how do I make this into an image instead of a URL?

[StruThiO]

http://imgur.com/a/Zy0LcXr

The Parade of the Waves

By the way, how do I make this into an image instead of a URL?

[ img ]https://i.imgur.com/aCIZOmw.jpg[ /img ]

[cycloneye]

I am waiting for the one that will emerge on the 15th that some models are hinting.

http://imgur.com/a/Zy0LcXr

The Parade of the Waves

By the way, how do I make this into an image instead of a URL?

[cycloneye]

Umm 2005, 2017.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1271242900647620614

[TheStormExpert]

Umm 2005, 2017.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1271242900647620614

Either he's all in or he's not bullish at all on an Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Does anyone recall what he was saying about the 2017 season at this time of year?