2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JonathanBelles/status/1271503417710706692

[TheStormExpert]

Surprised nobody is talking about the complete lack of Bermuda High this spring and summer so far albeit the past couple of days has featured decent easterly “trades” across Southern Florida and the Keys, though ephemeral which will end this weekend. Looking at the models this lack of Bermuda High feature looks to continue. The pattern is somewhat similar to last year as well but last year at this time we saw a pretty decent high building in. The pattern resembles nothing like 2015-2018 by this time so far, the years of persistent western Atlantic ridging (i.e. strong Bermuda High).

I will agree that the Bermuda High was absent from the beginning of April through about mid-May but since then it has been showing up more frequently to the point that even the NWS: Miami has mentioned it in their forecasts discussions over the past several weeks as stated in the Florida weather thread. It may not be as strong as the previous four years but it is stronger in my opinion when compared to the string of active years in 2010-2012.

[TheStormExpert]

Surprised nobody is talking about the complete lack of Bermuda High this spring and summer so far albeit the past couple of days has featured decent easterly “trades” across Southern Florida and the Keys, though ephemeral which will end this weekend. Looking at the models this lack of Bermuda High feature looks to continue. The pattern is somewhat similar to last year as well but last year at this time we saw a pretty decent high building in. The pattern resembles nothing like 2015-2018 by this time so far, the years of persistent western Atlantic ridging (i.e. strong Bermuda High).

Perhaps thw NAO can give us some clues. Starting in April, there have been 2 big dips into negative territory while the remainder of the time it has been hovering near 0. If we see prolonged positive NAO, it could cause the Bermuda High to build back in

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200612/4e056d25c7197b5fe6a405aaaf556820.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well the NAO is likely to stay positive for at least the next two weeks. Even during a -NAO season we can get hit from so-called backdoor hurricanes in the Western Caribbean in October so we’re not off the hook even if the NAO goes negative in ASO.

[Kingarabian]

EPS has a decent active CCKW/MJO combo entering the WATL around June 20th. Shows it lasting through the end of the month and into July. So although June is typically a slow month, we could see more systems develop and maybe new records set. Especially with all these impressive waves emerging off of west Africa.

[cycloneye]

EPS has a decent active CCKW/MJO combo entering the WATL around June 20th. Shows it lasting through the end of the month and into July. So although June is typically a slow month, we could see more systems develop and maybe new records set. Especially with all these impressive waves emerging off of west Africa.

Like that tiny thing.

[cycloneye]

I dont have to say anything as the comparison graphics do the talking.

June 12 2020



June 12 2017



June 12 2018



June 12 2019

[SFLcane]

Nice plots Luis....We will see how it survives the enhanced trades.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1271585503272472581

[JetFuel_SE]

I dont have to say anything as the comparison graphics do the talking.

June 12 2020

https://i.imgur.com/5M0Gjuo.jpg

June 12 2017

https://i.imgur.com/kUZWYk7.jpg

June 12 2018

https://i.imgur.com/4lrkmu3.jpg

June 12 2019

https://i.imgur.com/UCvC64b.jpg

I'm pretty sure that 2020 graphic is glitched.

[cycloneye]

I dont have to say anything as the comparison graphics do the talking.

June 12 2020

https://i.imgur.com/5M0Gjuo.jpg

June 12 2017

https://i.imgur.com/kUZWYk7.jpg

June 12 2018

https://i.imgur.com/4lrkmu3.jpg

June 12 2019

https://i.imgur.com/UCvC64b.jpg

I'm pretty sure that 2020 graphic is glitched.

How do you know?

[Shell Mound]

TROPICAL-CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL (TCHP)

2020:


2017:


2010:


2005:


Speechless.

[StruThiO]

Product is definitely glitched. It freaked me out too, don't worry. Here's the full list of archived dates: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/fulllist.php

Note the one day difference between June 5th and June 6th.

[aspen]

Product is definitely glitched. It freaked me out too, don't worry. Here's the full list of archived dates: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/fulllist.php

Note the one day difference between June 5th and June 6th.

https://i.imgur.com/XwVxHuC.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/PZkJuaq.jpg

The main pocket of OHC is still higher than that of 2005, 2010, or 2017, although there’s less OHC in the Gulf as compared to those years.

[toad strangler]

Product is definitely glitched. It freaked me out too, don't worry. Here's the full list of archived dates: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/fulllist.php

Note the one day difference between June 5th and June 6th.

https://i.imgur.com/XwVxHuC.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/PZkJuaq.jpg

The main pocket of OHC is still higher than that of 2005, 2010, or 2017, although there’s less OHC in the Gulf as compared to those years.

Splitting hairs probably. That map says the table is set. Of course that means nothing if nobody comes to the table

[SFLcane]

Product is definitely glitched. It freaked me out too, don't worry. Here's the full list of archived dates: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/fulllist.php

Note the one day difference between June 5th and June 6th.

https://i.imgur.com/XwVxHuC.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/PZkJuaq.jpg

The main pocket of OHC is still higher than that of 2005, 2010, or 2017, although there’s less OHC in the Gulf as compared to those years.

Splitting hairs probably. That map says the table is set. Of course that means nothing if nobody comes to the table

Oh I have no doubt there will be plenty on the table give it a few weeks.

[Hammy]

Is it me or have the waves this year had more spin and stronger low-level westerlies early on than a lot of recent seasons?

[StruThiO]

Is it me or have the waves this year had more spin and stronger low-level westerlies early on than a lot of recent seasons?

Is it just me or has the ITCZ looked much healthier so far this year than in recent years?

[hurricanes1234]

Given that there are still six waves active on the NHC surface analysis and I'm seeing a potential wave coming off Africa, I wouldn't be surprised if there are 7 simultaneously active waves soon.

Does anyone have saved images of a surface analysis from around this same time last year and perhaps even other years gone by?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1272116643985006592

[CyclonicFury]

Is it me or have the waves this year had more spin and stronger low-level westerlies early on than a lot of recent seasons?

Is it just me or has the ITCZ looked much healthier so far this year than in recent years?

https://i.imgur.com/qRdV3cr.jpg

It does look healthy, especially for June while a suppressed KW is passing through. In 2018 and 2019 the MDR seemed nearly convectiveless at times before late August.