2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[cycloneye]

The interest of the members to post great discussions in this 2020 indicators has been very good and plenty as already it has 48 pages as of June 18. However, is still behind the 2017 indicators thread that had in total 85 pages. I have no doubt that this 2020 one will surpass the 2017 as there is very high interest about all the factors that are leading to an active or perhaps a hyperactive one and especially that all the experts of goverment and private entities are forecasting an active season. Let's keep it going folks.

[Shell Mound]

So no doubt it looks to be shaping up to be an above normal season. But keep in mind we could end up with something like 2010 where we had slot of Cape Verde storms that recurved due to a weak/displaced Bermuda High and weakness over the Central Atlantic.

So far the Bermuda High has been displaced either south or way to the NE in the Atlantic allowing southerly and southwesterly flow across Florida. Even the big SAL surge will likely stay south over the Caribbean. This pattern is quite a bit different than 2015-2018 where SAL impacted Florida in June due to deep-layer easterly windflow.

One has to think that Florida and SE US might need to look to the south this year as this could be a year the Caribbean cranks out some significant hurricanes.

Gator, I want to tell you something. In April 2017, I started getting this weird feeling in my stomach. I felt this need to watch Hurricane Andrew videos on Youtube from TWC. I watched John Hope discuss Andrew in legendary fashion. I just couldn’t stop watching the videos over and over because I had this weird feeling that months later a Category 5 hurricane would be staring down South Florida and as we all know, Irma threatened South Florida as a Cat 5 and that brought flashbacks to me having this funny feeling 5 months before Irma hit. Luckily, SE Florida dodged a major bullet but my gut was right...something was gonna come for South Florida.

Fast forward to 2020, and I developed another one of those gut feelings. This time, I am constantly drawn to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Irene (1999) videos on Youtube. I cant stop watching them. I have this deep feeling in my gut that Florida will get hit this year from a big hurricane coming from the SW Caribbean.

Maybe I am just being silly, but my gut feeling was right in 2017 and I fear it may be right again in 2020. The pattern and atmosphere just seem to be screaming for a FL hit from the Caribbean this year

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Historically, while most of South Florida’s* hurricanes have originated in the Caribbean, most of its Cat-4+ impacts have developed in the MDR and/or subtropics instead. Since 1851 only two of South Florida’s Cat-4+ hits originated in the Caribbean. A hurricane in September 1948 struck the Lower Keys (105 kt) and then Chokoloskee Bay (115 kt). In October 1950 Hurricane King rapidly deepened to 115 kt as it struck Coconut Grove in Miami. All the other Cat-4+ hits developed in the MDR and/or subtropics, including the major hits of 1919, 1926, 1928, 1935, 1945, 1947, 1949, 1960, and 1992.

If a strong hurricane develops in the Caribbean and strikes South Florida in 2020, it will most likely be a Cat-3 at most, rather than a truly historic Cat-4+. Plus, unless it manages to strike the Keys, a major strike from the Caribbean usually delivers its worst surge/wind to the Everglades of Collier/mainland Monroe counties, as Wilma did in 2005. So climatology suggests that a strong Bermuda High is usually necessary to deliver Cat-4+ hits on South Florida. Cat-3s or weaker, however, are proverbial “fair game” in other cases.

Anyway, from a Floridian’s standpoint, one doesn’t care about “dodged bullets” and near misses such as Dorian (2019), but only about the big ones that do hit, including Michael in 2018. For some reason South Florida has dodged one bullet after another since Andrew. We’ve seen so many Cat-4+ hurricanes come so close but veer away, weaken, or pass to the west. The fact that Matthew (2016) and Dorian defied the reliable ECMWF suite by staying offshore has almost convinced me that something mysterious is at work.

*The NWS Miami’s CWA defines South Florida as Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Glades, Hendry, Collier, and mainland Monroe counties.

[AutoPenalti]

So no doubt it looks to be shaping up to be an above normal season. But keep in mind we could end up with something like 2010 where we had slot of Cape Verde storms that recurved due to a weak/displaced Bermuda High and weakness over the Central Atlantic.

So far the Bermuda High has been displaced either south or way to the NE in the Atlantic allowing southerly and southwesterly flow across Florida. Even the big SAL surge will likely stay south over the Caribbean. This pattern is quite a bit different than 2015-2018 where SAL impacted Florida in June due to deep-layer easterly windflow.

One has to think that Florida and SE US might need to look to the south this year as this could be a year the Caribbean cranks out some significant hurricanes.

Gator, I want to tell you something. In April 2017, I started getting this weird feeling in my stomach. I felt this need to watch Hurricane Andrew videos on Youtube from TWC. I watched John Hope discuss Andrew in legendary fashion. I just couldn’t stop watching the videos over and over because I had this weird feeling that months later a Category 5 hurricane would be staring down South Florida and as we all know, Irma threatened South Florida as a Cat 5 and that brought flashbacks to me having this funny feeling 5 months before Irma hit. Luckily, SE Florida dodged a major bullet but my gut was right...something was gonna come for South Florida.

Fast forward to 2020, and I developed another one of those gut feelings. This time, I am constantly drawn to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Irene (1999) videos on Youtube. I cant stop watching them. I have this deep feeling in my gut that Florida will get hit this year from a big hurricane coming from the SW Caribbean.

Maybe I am just being silly, but my gut feeling was right in 2017 and I fear it may be right again in 2020. The pattern and atmosphere just seem to be screaming for a FL hit from the Caribbean this year

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Historically, while most of South Florida’s* hurricanes have originated in the Caribbean, most of its Cat-4+ impacts have developed in the MDR and/or subtropics instead. Since 1851 only two of South Florida’s Cat-4+ hits originated in the Caribbean. A hurricane in September 1948 struck the Lower Keys (105 kt) and then Chokoloskee Bay (115 kt). In October 1950 Hurricane King rapidly deepened to 115 kt as it struck Coconut Grove in Miami. All the other Cat-4+ hits developed in the MDR and/or subtropics, including the major hits of 1919, 1926, 1928, 1935, 1945, 1947, 1949, 1960, and 1992.

If a strong hurricane develops in the Caribbean and strikes South Florida in 2020, it will most likely be a Cat-3 at most, rather than a truly historic Cat-4+. Plus, unless it manages to strike the Keys, a major strike from the Caribbean usually delivers its worst surge/wind to the Everglades of Collier/mainland Monroe counties, as Wilma did in 2005. So climatology suggests that a strong Bermuda High is usually necessary to deliver Cat-4+ hits on South Florida. Cat-3s or weaker, however, are proverbial “fair game” in other cases.

Anyway, from a Floridian’s standpoint, one doesn’t care about “dodged bullets” and near misses such as Dorian (2019), but only about the big ones that do hit, including Michael in 2018. For some reason South Florida has dodged one bullet after another since Andrew. We’ve seen so many Cat-4+ hurricanes come so close but veer away, weaken, or pass to the west. The fact that Matthew (2016) and Dorian defied the reliable ECMWF suite by staying offshore has almost convinced me that something mysterious is at work.

*The NWS Miami’s CWA defines South Florida as Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Glades, Hendry, Collier, and mainland Monroe counties.

Nothing mysterious, just very hard to predict little fluid movements in the atmosphere.

[toad strangler]

Gator, I want to tell you something. In April 2017, I started getting this weird feeling in my stomach. I felt this need to watch Hurricane Andrew videos on Youtube from TWC. I watched John Hope discuss Andrew in legendary fashion. I just couldn’t stop watching the videos over and over because I had this weird feeling that months later a Category 5 hurricane would be staring down South Florida and as we all know, Irma threatened South Florida as a Cat 5 and that brought flashbacks to me having this funny feeling 5 months before Irma hit. Luckily, SE Florida dodged a major bullet but my gut was right...something was gonna come for South Florida.

Fast forward to 2020, and I developed another one of those gut feelings. This time, I am constantly drawn to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Irene (1999) videos on Youtube. I cant stop watching them. I have this deep feeling in my gut that Florida will get hit this year from a big hurricane coming from the SW Caribbean.

Maybe I am just being silly, but my gut feeling was right in 2017 and I fear it may be right again in 2020. The pattern and atmosphere just seem to be screaming for a FL hit from the Caribbean this year

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Historically, while most of South Florida’s* hurricanes have originated in the Caribbean, most of its Cat-4+ impacts have developed in the MDR and/or subtropics instead. Since 1851 only two of South Florida’s Cat-4+ hits originated in the Caribbean. A hurricane in September 1948 struck the Lower Keys (105 kt) and then Chokoloskee Bay (115 kt). In October 1950 Hurricane King rapidly deepened to 115 kt as it struck Coconut Grove in Miami. All the other Cat-4+ hits developed in the MDR and/or subtropics, including the major hits of 1919, 1926, 1928, 1935, 1945, 1947, 1949, 1960, and 1992.

If a strong hurricane develops in the Caribbean and strikes South Florida in 2020, it will most likely be a Cat-3 at most, rather than a truly historic Cat-4+. Plus, unless it manages to strike the Keys, a major strike from the Caribbean usually delivers its worst surge/wind to the Everglades of Collier/mainland Monroe counties, as Wilma did in 2005. So climatology suggests that a strong Bermuda High is usually necessary to deliver Cat-4+ hits on South Florida. Cat-3s or weaker, however, are proverbial “fair game” in other cases.

Anyway, from a Floridian’s standpoint, one doesn’t care about “dodged bullets” and near misses such as Dorian (2019), but only about the big ones that do hit, including Michael in 2018. For some reason South Florida has dodged one bullet after another since Andrew. We’ve seen so many Cat-4+ hurricanes come so close but veer away, weaken, or pass to the west. The fact that Matthew (2016) and Dorian defied the reliable ECMWF suite by staying offshore has almost convinced me that something mysterious is at work.

*The NWS Miami’s CWA defines South Florida as Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Glades, Hendry, Collier, and mainland Monroe counties.

Nothing mysterious, just very hard to predict little fluid movements in the atmosphere.

I agree, no mystery. The atmosphere is way to complex and variable to follow specific norms. How do you explain two hurricane landfalls in a row within two weeks on Hutchinson Island less than 10 miles apart in 2004 and then nothing since.

[TheStormExpert]

So no doubt it looks to be shaping up to be an above normal season. But keep in mind we could end up with something like 2010 where we had slot of Cape Verde storms that recurved due to a weak/displaced Bermuda High and weakness over the Central Atlantic.

So far the Bermuda High has been displaced either south or way to the NE in the Atlantic allowing southerly and southwesterly flow across Florida. Even the big SAL surge will likely stay south over the Caribbean. This pattern is quite a bit different than 2015-2018 where SAL impacted Florida in June due to deep-layer easterly windflow.

One has to think that Florida and SE US might need to look to the south this year as this could be a year the Caribbean cranks out some significant hurricanes.

Gator, I want to tell you something. In April 2017, I started getting this weird feeling in my stomach. I felt this need to watch Hurricane Andrew videos on Youtube from TWC. I watched John Hope discuss Andrew in legendary fashion. I just couldnt stop watching the videos over and over because I had this weird feeling that months later a Category 5 hurricane would be staring down South Florida and as we all know, Irma threatened South Florida as a Cat 5 and that brought flashbacks to me having this funny feeling 5 months before Irma hit. Luckily, SE Florida dodged a major bullet but my gut was right...something was gonna come for South Florida.

Fast forward to 2020, and I developed another one of those gut feelings. This time, I am constantly drawn to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Irene (1999) videos on Youtube. I cant stop watching them. I have this deep feeling in my gut that Florida will get hit this year from a big hurricane coming from the SW Caribbean.

Maybe I am just being silly, but my gut feeling was right in 2017 and I fear it may be right again in 2020. The pattern and atmosphere just seem to be screaming for a FL hit from the Caribbean this year


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I have a weird feeling too about something coming out of the Western or Northwestern Caribbean especially in October a lot like Irene maybe stronger but spot on with track. Can’t even rule out something like Charley in 2004 either.

The current steering pattern does not really support anything significant coming towards Florida from the East so I’m not buying the Bermuda High building and setting up shop until I see it do so. Not saying it couldn’t happen but we’re talking about the same Euro showing this which also doesn’t paint a very favorable picture for the Atlantic as usual.

[toad strangler]

So no doubt it looks to be shaping up to be an above normal season. But keep in mind we could end up with something like 2010 where we had slot of Cape Verde storms that recurved due to a weak/displaced Bermuda High and weakness over the Central Atlantic.

So far the Bermuda High has been displaced either south or way to the NE in the Atlantic allowing southerly and southwesterly flow across Florida. Even the big SAL surge will likely stay south over the Caribbean. This pattern is quite a bit different than 2015-2018 where SAL impacted Florida in June due to deep-layer easterly windflow.

One has to think that Florida and SE US might need to look to the south this year as this could be a year the Caribbean cranks out some significant hurricanes.

Gator, I want to tell you something. In April 2017, I started getting this weird feeling in my stomach. I felt this need to watch Hurricane Andrew videos on Youtube from TWC. I watched John Hope discuss Andrew in legendary fashion. I just couldnt stop watching the videos over and over because I had this weird feeling that months later a Category 5 hurricane would be staring down South Florida and as we all know, Irma threatened South Florida as a Cat 5 and that brought flashbacks to me having this funny feeling 5 months before Irma hit. Luckily, SE Florida dodged a major bullet but my gut was right...something was gonna come for South Florida.

Fast forward to 2020, and I developed another one of those gut feelings. This time, I am constantly drawn to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Irene (1999) videos on Youtube. I cant stop watching them. I have this deep feeling in my gut that Florida will get hit this year from a big hurricane coming from the SW Caribbean.

Maybe I am just being silly, but my gut feeling was right in 2017 and I fear it may be right again in 2020. The pattern and atmosphere just seem to be screaming for a FL hit from the Caribbean this year


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I have a weird feeling too about something coming out of the Western or Northwestern Caribbean especially in October a lot like Irene maybe stronger but spot on with track. Can’t even rule out something like Charley in 2004 either.

The current steering pattern does not really support anything significant coming towards Florida from the East so I’m not buying the Bermuda High building and setting up shop until I see it do so. Not saying it couldn’t happen but we’re talking about the same Euro showing this which also doesn’t paint a very favorable picture for the Atlantic as usual.

We are talking nearly two full months before prime season starts. How can you speculate on where the high will be favoring based on today or recently. I can see that this has started to be the new calling card recently. Last month it was slight negative SST's in the MDR. I haven't seen one prominent professional entity chime in on this yet.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Honestly, the current SST configuration in the Atlantic basin is probably the strongest or most prototypical +AMO we have seen since 2010. It is certainly more of a +AMO than we observed in 2017 and is even more pronounced than at this time in 2005. What is unusual about this year is the fact that we have seen a very strong Bermuda High that has been displaced northeastward of its usual location, allowing stronger easterlies to persist over the northern MDR/subtropics, while low-level westerlies have dominated the equatorial Atlantic. (This pattern also accounts for the above-average rainfall over coastal South Florida, given that the Bermuda High, while strong, was too far to the northeast for South FL to experience visible effects. So the ridge has not been “absent,” merely displaced.)

As the ITCZ has migrated northward over time, the pattern has allowed a very warm MDR/Caribbean to take shape, with warmth gradually migrating from the subtropics and equatorial region(s) to the tropics. This is taking place in earnest as I write, assuming a disturbing resemblance to 2010: warmth extending southward from the Canadian Maritimes, a cool(-ing) subtropics, and a very warm MDR/Caribbean/Gulf. Therefore, owing to these factors, we could see a very pronounced +AMO in conjunction with a very strong Bermuda High by ASO, owing to the position of the synoptic features relative to normal as well as the very wet Sahel (strong WAM/AEJ) combined with cool neutral ENSO/weak La Niña.

In other words, all the factors may align to produce the maximum possible number of NS, ACE, and landfalls—not as many NS as in 2005, but on par with 1887 or 1933, with near-record ACE and a lot of westward tracks. I’m thinking nineteen to twenty NS, ten to thirteen hurricanes, and six to eight major hurricanes, along with an ACE index of 230-260, with enhanced MH landfall risk in the Yucatán/Tamaulipas, Mississippi River Delta (NOLA), South Florida, the southern Bahamas/TCI, Hispaniola, and the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the USVI. Florida and the northern Gulf Coast look to face quite a season, along with Mexico and the Leeward Islands.

What you are describing is the Positive state of the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) which I might add is a positive for development. It's something I have been doing a lot of reading about. A +AMM coupled with a +AMO in the past has lead to higher than normal numbers in the Tropical Atlantic. While it turned negative Oct/Nov 2019 it looks like it is strongly positive again, everything in the quoted text above points to that.

[TheStormExpert]

Gator, I want to tell you something. In April 2017, I started getting this weird feeling in my stomach. I felt this need to watch Hurricane Andrew videos on Youtube from TWC. I watched John Hope discuss Andrew in legendary fashion. I just couldnt stop watching the videos over and over because I had this weird feeling that months later a Category 5 hurricane would be staring down South Florida and as we all know, Irma threatened South Florida as a Cat 5 and that brought flashbacks to me having this funny feeling 5 months before Irma hit. Luckily, SE Florida dodged a major bullet but my gut was right...something was gonna come for South Florida.

Fast forward to 2020, and I developed another one of those gut feelings. This time, I am constantly drawn to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Irene (1999) videos on Youtube. I cant stop watching them. I have this deep feeling in my gut that Florida will get hit this year from a big hurricane coming from the SW Caribbean.

Maybe I am just being silly, but my gut feeling was right in 2017 and I fear it may be right again in 2020. The pattern and atmosphere just seem to be screaming for a FL hit from the Caribbean this year


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I have a weird feeling too about something coming out of the Western or Northwestern Caribbean especially in October a lot like Irene maybe stronger but spot on with track. Can’t even rule out something like Charley in 2004 either.

The current steering pattern does not really support anything significant coming towards Florida from the East so I’m not buying the Bermuda High building and setting up shop until I see it do so. Not saying it couldn’t happen but we’re talking about the same Euro showing this which also doesn’t paint a very favorable picture for the Atlantic as usual.

We are talking nearly two full months before prime season starts. How can you speculate on where the high will be favoring based on today or recently. I can see that this has started to be the new calling card recently. Last month it was slight negative SST's in the MDR. I haven't seen one prominent professional entity chime in on this yet.

We’re just speculating, that’s what this site is for! I’m definitely not saying this is a 100% true statement and is just my opinion. That’s why we have the disclaimer at the top of the site and I always have it in my footer.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The interest of the members to post great discussions in this 2020 indicators has been very good and plenty as already it has 48 pages as of June 18. However, is still behind the 2017 indicators thread that had in total 85 pages. I have no doubt that this 2020 one will surpass the 2017 as there is very high interest about all the factors that are leading to an active or perhaps a hyperactive one and especially that all the experts of goverment and private entities are forecasting an active season. Let's keep it going folks.

To be honest...I think a lot of people have "disaster fatigue"

[ScottNAtlanta]

Lets just hope we dont have an "Emily 2005" repeat this year in the first half of July

[TheStormExpert]

Historically, while most of South Florida’s* hurricanes have originated in the Caribbean, most of its Cat-4+ impacts have developed in the MDR and/or subtropics instead. Since 1851 only two of South Florida’s Cat-4+ hits originated in the Caribbean. A hurricane in September 1948 struck the Lower Keys (105 kt) and then Chokoloskee Bay (115 kt). In October 1950 Hurricane King rapidly deepened to 115 kt as it struck Coconut Grove in Miami. All the other Cat-4+ hits developed in the MDR and/or subtropics, including the major hits of 1919, 1926, 1928, 1935, 1945, 1947, 1949, 1960, and 1992.

If a strong hurricane develops in the Caribbean and strikes South Florida in 2020, it will most likely be a Cat-3 at most, rather than a truly historic Cat-4+. Plus, unless it manages to strike the Keys, a major strike from the Caribbean usually delivers its worst surge/wind to the Everglades of Collier/mainland Monroe counties, as Wilma did in 2005. So climatology suggests that a strong Bermuda High is usually necessary to deliver Cat-4+ hits on South Florida. Cat-3s or weaker, however, are proverbial “fair game” in other cases.

Anyway, from a Floridian’s standpoint, one doesn’t care about “dodged bullets” and near misses such as Dorian (2019), but only about the big ones that do hit, including Michael in 2018. For some reason South Florida has dodged one bullet after another since Andrew. We’ve seen so many Cat-4+ hurricanes come so close but veer away, weaken, or pass to the west. The fact that Matthew (2016) and Dorian defied the reliable ECMWF suite by staying offshore has almost convinced me that something mysterious is at work.

*The NWS Miami’s CWA defines South Florida as Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Glades, Hendry, Collier, and mainland Monroe counties.

Nothing mysterious, just very hard to predict little fluid movements in the atmosphere.

I agree, no mystery. The atmosphere is way to complex and variable to follow specific norms. How do you explain two hurricane landfalls in a row within two weeks on Hutchinson Island less than 10 miles apart in 2004 and then nothing since.

This is all has to do with the placement and position of the Bermuda High. In 2004 the Bermuda High was strong enough to push both Frances and Jeanne into the exact same landfall location along Florida’s East Coast exactly three weeks apart. Meanwhile you’ll have years like 2016 or 2019 where the Bermuda High is strong but not strong enough to prevent a close call to Florida like we saw with both Mathew and Dorian. Then there’s also years like 2010 where the Bermuda High was absent and all the Cape Verde storms recurve into the Atlantic and the only place really be threatened is Bermuda. This is why these seasonal trends leading up to August, September, and October are critical in potentially determining what may or may not happen during peak season.

[toad strangler]

Nothing mysterious, just very hard to predict little fluid movements in the atmosphere.

I agree, no mystery. The atmosphere is way to complex and variable to follow specific norms. How do you explain two hurricane landfalls in a row within two weeks on Hutchinson Island less than 10 miles apart in 2004 and then nothing since.

This is all has to do with the placement and position of the Bermuda High. In 2004 the Bermuda High was strong enough to push both Frances and Jeanne into the exact same landfall location along Florida’s East Coast exactly three weeks apart. Meanwhile you’ll have years like 2016 or 2019 where the Bermuda High is strong but not strong enough to prevent a close call to Florida like we saw with both Mathew and Dorian. Then there’s also years like 2010 where the Bermuda High was absent and all the Cape Verde storms recurve into the Atlantic and the only place really be threatened is Bermuda. This is why these seasonal trends leading up to August, September, and October are critical in potentially determining what may or may not happen during peak season.

Like I said, looks like the Bermuda high is the new buzz around here lol. I'm not a fan of this as high pressure can shift and change overnight. All good. Jeanne and Frances came in completely differently. Jeanne almost completely re-curved and nearly escaped before HP rushed back in. Frances was a steady long track all the way across the basin.

[aspen]

Lets just hope we dont have an "Emily 2005" repeat this year in the first half of July

2020 probably just took that as a challenge.

[Nuno]

So no doubt it looks to be shaping up to be an above normal season. But keep in mind we could end up with something like 2010 where we had slot of Cape Verde storms that recurved due to a weak/displaced Bermuda High and weakness over the Central Atlantic.

So far the Bermuda High has been displaced either south or way to the NE in the Atlantic allowing southerly and southwesterly flow across Florida. Even the big SAL surge will likely stay south over the Caribbean. This pattern is quite a bit different than 2015-2018 where SAL impacted Florida in June due to deep-layer easterly windflow.

One has to think that Florida and SE US might need to look to the south this year as this could be a year the Caribbean cranks out some significant hurricanes.

Gator, I want to tell you something. In April 2017, I started getting this weird feeling in my stomach. I felt this need to watch Hurricane Andrew videos on Youtube from TWC. I watched John Hope discuss Andrew in legendary fashion. I just couldn’t stop watching the videos over and over because I had this weird feeling that months later a Category 5 hurricane would be staring down South Florida and as we all know, Irma threatened South Florida as a Cat 5 and that brought flashbacks to me having this funny feeling 5 months before Irma hit. Luckily, SE Florida dodged a major bullet but my gut was right...something was gonna come for South Florida.

Fast forward to 2020, and I developed another one of those gut feelings. This time, I am constantly drawn to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Irene (1999) videos on Youtube. I cant stop watching them. I have this deep feeling in my gut that Florida will get hit this year from a big hurricane coming from the SW Caribbean.

Maybe I am just being silly, but my gut feeling was right in 2017 and I fear it may be right again in 2020. The pattern and atmosphere just seem to be screaming for a FL hit from the Caribbean this year

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Historically, while most of South Florida’s* hurricanes have originated in the Caribbean, most of its Cat-4+ impacts have developed in the MDR and/or subtropics instead. Since 1851 only two of South Florida’s Cat-4+ hits originated in the Caribbean. A hurricane in September 1948 struck the Lower Keys (105 kt) and then Chokoloskee Bay (115 kt). In October 1950 Hurricane King rapidly deepened to 115 kt as it struck Coconut Grove in Miami. All the other Cat-4+ hits developed in the MDR and/or subtropics, including the major hits of 1919, 1926, 1928, 1935, 1945, 1947, 1949, 1960, and 1992.

If a strong hurricane develops in the Caribbean and strikes South Florida in 2020, it will most likely be a Cat-3 at most, rather than a truly historic Cat-4+. Plus, unless it manages to strike the Keys, a major strike from the Caribbean usually delivers its worst surge/wind to the Everglades of Collier/mainland Monroe counties, as Wilma did in 2005. So climatology suggests that a strong Bermuda High is usually necessary to deliver Cat-4+ hits on South Florida. Cat-3s or weaker, however, are proverbial “fair game” in other cases.

Anyway, from a Floridian’s standpoint, one doesn’t care about “dodged bullets” and near misses such as Dorian (2019), but only about the big ones that do hit, including Michael in 2018. For some reason South Florida has dodged one bullet after another since Andrew. We’ve seen so many Cat-4+ hurricanes come so close but veer away, weaken, or pass to the west. The fact that Matthew (2016) and Dorian defied the reliable ECMWF suite by staying offshore has almost convinced me that something mysterious is at work.

*The NWS Miami’s CWA defines South Florida as Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Glades, Hendry, Collier, and mainland Monroe counties.

Floyd is also an oft-forgotten dodged bullet. I'll never forget the panic it caused, since it was hyped as "bigger Andrew".

South Florida as a whole has dodged quite a lot going back to storms like David in '79. There is a serious complacency in South Florida. Even Irma is dismissed as "all for nothing". This is definitely going to end at some point, and I worry it'll be during the pandemic.

[Nuno]

I agree, no mystery. The atmosphere is way to complex and variable to follow specific norms. How do you explain two hurricane landfalls in a row within two weeks on Hutchinson Island less than 10 miles apart in 2004 and then nothing since.

This is all has to do with the placement and position of the Bermuda High. In 2004 the Bermuda High was strong enough to push both Frances and Jeanne into the exact same landfall location along Florida’s East Coast exactly three weeks apart. Meanwhile you’ll have years like 2016 or 2019 where the Bermuda High is strong but not strong enough to prevent a close call to Florida like we saw with both Mathew and Dorian. Then there’s also years like 2010 where the Bermuda High was absent and all the Cape Verde storms recurve into the Atlantic and the only place really be threatened is Bermuda. This is why these seasonal trends leading up to August, September, and October are critical in potentially determining what may or may not happen during peak season.

Like I said, looks like the Bermuda high is the new buzz around here lol. I'm not a fan of this as high pressure can shift and change overnight. All good. Jeanne and Frances came in completely differently. Jeanne almost completely re-curved and nearly escaped before HP rushed back in. Frances was a steady long track all the way across the basin.

I find it weird how people talk about high pressure placements as absolute and final. That ridge pushed Dorian west to FL and was forcasted to hold strong...until it wasn't anymore. Models sniffed it out seemingly overnight and radically changed the forecast. It seems premature to start throwing darts on a board for what will happen in Aug/Sep when EVEN IN THOSE MONTHS we deal with very fluid and constantly evolving conditions.

[TheStormExpert]

So no doubt it looks to be shaping up to be an above normal season. But keep in mind we could end up with something like 2010 where we had slot of Cape Verde storms that recurved due to a weak/displaced Bermuda High and weakness over the Central Atlantic.

So far the Bermuda High has been displaced either south or way to the NE in the Atlantic allowing southerly and southwesterly flow across Florida. Even the big SAL surge will likely stay south over the Caribbean. This pattern is quite a bit different than 2015-2018 where SAL impacted Florida in June due to deep-layer easterly windflow.

One has to think that Florida and SE US might need to look to the south this year as this could be a year the Caribbean cranks out some significant hurricanes.

Gator, I want to tell you something. In April 2017, I started getting this weird feeling in my stomach. I felt this need to watch Hurricane Andrew videos on Youtube from TWC. I watched John Hope discuss Andrew in legendary fashion. I just couldn’t stop watching the videos over and over because I had this weird feeling that months later a Category 5 hurricane would be staring down South Florida and as we all know, Irma threatened South Florida as a Cat 5 and that brought flashbacks to me having this funny feeling 5 months before Irma hit. Luckily, SE Florida dodged a major bullet but my gut was right...something was gonna come for South Florida.

Fast forward to 2020, and I developed another one of those gut feelings. This time, I am constantly drawn to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Irene (1999) videos on Youtube. I cant stop watching them. I have this deep feeling in my gut that Florida will get hit this year from a big hurricane coming from the SW Caribbean.

Maybe I am just being silly, but my gut feeling was right in 2017 and I fear it may be right again in 2020. The pattern and atmosphere just seem to be screaming for a FL hit from the Caribbean this year

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Historically, while most of South Florida’s* hurricanes have originated in the Caribbean, most of its Cat-4+ impacts have developed in the MDR and/or subtropics instead. Since 1851 only two of South Florida’s Cat-4+ hits originated in the Caribbean. A hurricane in September 1948 struck the Lower Keys (105 kt) and then Chokoloskee Bay (115 kt). In October 1950 Hurricane King rapidly deepened to 115 kt as it struck Coconut Grove in Miami. All the other Cat-4+ hits developed in the MDR and/or subtropics, including the major hits of 1919, 1926, 1928, 1935, 1945, 1947, 1949, 1960, and 1992.

If a strong hurricane develops in the Caribbean and strikes South Florida in 2020, it will most likely be a Cat-3 at most, rather than a truly historic Cat-4+. Plus, unless it manages to strike the Keys, a major strike from the Caribbean usually delivers its worst surge/wind to the Everglades of Collier/mainland Monroe counties, as Wilma did in 2005. So climatology suggests that a strong Bermuda High is usually necessary to deliver Cat-4+ hits on South Florida. Cat-3s or weaker, however, are proverbial “fair game” in other cases.

Anyway, from a Floridian’s standpoint, one doesn’t care about “dodged bullets” and near misses such as Dorian (2019), but only about the big ones that do hit, including Michael in 2018. For some reason South Florida has dodged one bullet after another since Andrew. We’ve seen so many Cat-4+ hurricanes come so close but veer away, weaken, or pass to the west. The fact that Matthew (2016) and Dorian defied the reliable ECMWF suite by staying offshore has almost convinced me that something mysterious is at work.

*The NWS Miami’s CWA defines South Florida as Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Glades, Hendry, Collier, and mainland Monroe counties.

Wilma might have not been the Cat.5 monster it was in the Western Caribbean but surely packed a significant punch for a low-end Cat.3 when it quickly traveresed the FL Peninsula! That was likely the longest 3-5 hours of my life.

[cycloneye]

JB has 2005 as analog.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1273770722729615360

[SootyTern]

Wilma might have not been the Cat.5 monster it was in the Western Caribbean but surely packed a significant punch for a low-end Cat.3 when it quickly traveresed the FL Peninsula! That was likely the longest 3-5 hours of my life.

Irma was more like 48 hours of winds you don't really want to go outside in, at least at my location. Being stuck inside for one weekend seems so quaint now.

[CyclonicFury]

July is going to be interesting. Unlike the past two years which had a large-scale, persistent sinking branch over the Atlantic before late August, it appears the first half of July will have a VP200 pattern favorable for development based on the EPS and JMA guidance. Many hyperactive seasons have MDR activity before August, and it's going to be interesting to see if that happens this year.

46-day EPS VP200:


July is a "transition month" between the June Central American Gyre season and the August-September Cabo Verde Season. During active years, we occasionally see July genesis in the MDR or NW Caribbean from tropical waves, while during less active years, we tend to see July genesis occur in the subtropical Atlantic from non-tropical sources. July averages about one storm a year (less than one on a long-term average), so it is hard to definitely say how much activity the month will have. 1-2 named storms with the possibility of maybe 1 hurricane seems like a reasonable outlook for July, IMO. July EPAC activity can result in increased shear in the Caribbean, as we saw in 2017 (which went on to be a hyperactive Atlantic season, regardless).

[Hammy]

Stupid question as long as I've been here, is the EPS the Euro ensemble?