2020 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

Models are now very consistent on two developments and both will be hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

I think the one that will get more ACE units is the one behind because it forms at lower latitude and moves west.

[Kingarabian]

Definitely very good agreement from the GFS and Euro. First things first is the 10/20 system. Models only modestly develop it, but if it can attempt to organize within the next 48 hours I would feel more confident about the latter two.

The GFS and EPS show the two stronger systems making it into the CPAC.

[Kingarabian]

GFS, recently, has been trying to send a low end system into SoCal.

[aspen]

GFS, recently, has been trying to send a low end system into SoCal.
https://i.imgur.com/PIUEO7w.png

It’s 2020, so why not?

The 18z run still shows the 0/60 AOI developing between late Tuesday and sometime on Wednesday. Model runs continue to be very consistent with this system.

[Kingarabian]

GFS, recently, has been trying to send a low end system into SoCal.
https://i.imgur.com/PIUEO7w.png

It’s 2020, so why not?

The 18z run still shows the 0/60 AOI developing between late Tuesday and sometime on Wednesday. Model runs continue to be very consistent with this system.

The GFS does this every other season. Has become a more common theme since 2014... It's interesting because it's showing this solution this early in the season, in a cool-neutral year with a not so warmPDO/no El Nino. It's very unlikely to occur but yeah it is 2020 lol.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if
any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast
of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward, well
south of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

GFS, recently, has been trying to send a low end system into SoCal.
https://i.imgur.com/PIUEO7w.png

It’s 2020, so why not?

The 18z run still shows the 0/60 AOI developing between late Tuesday and sometime on Wednesday. Model runs continue to be very consistent with this system.

The GFS does this every other season. Has become a more common theme since 2014... It's interesting because it's showing this solution this early in the season, in a cool-neutral year with a not so strong PDO/no El Nino. It's very unlikely to occur but yeah it is 2020 lol.

Way too early and too far from the path of least resistance (ie the path that would move it over cool water for the least amount of time) for a California threat. The GFS tends to decay systems over sharp SST gradients too slowly, hence why it often tends to shows storms like that falsely reaching California. It's doable in the absolute right setup and I imagine we'll get a system that actually hits the state eventually.

[Kingarabian]

It’s 2020, so why not?

The 18z run still shows the 0/60 AOI developing between late Tuesday and sometime on Wednesday. Model runs continue to be very consistent with this system.

The GFS does this every other season. Has become a more common theme since 2014... It's interesting because it's showing this solution this early in the season, in a cool-neutral year with a not so strong PDO/no El Nino. It's very unlikely to occur but yeah it is 2020 lol.

Way too early and too far from the path of least resistance (ie the path that would move it over cool water for the least amount of time) for a California threat. The GFS tends to decay systems over sharp SST gradients too slowly, hence why it often tends to shows storms like that falsely reaching California. It's doable in the absolute right setup and I imagine we'll get a system that actually hits the state eventually.

Agreed.
Also abnormal (abnormal due to it being very early and likely unfavorable base state) is that with the time frame coming in, it's also odd to see some hints that the future second strong system may make it close to Hawaii in-tact.

[Yellow Evan]

The GFS does this every other season. Has become a more common theme since 2014... It's interesting because it's showing this solution this early in the season, in a cool-neutral year with a not so strong PDO/no El Nino. It's very unlikely to occur but yeah it is 2020 lol.

Way too early and too far from the path of least resistance (ie the path that would move it over cool water for the least amount of time) for a California threat. The GFS tends to decay systems over sharp SST gradients too slowly, hence why it often tends to shows storms like that falsely reaching California. It's doable in the absolute right setup and I imagine we'll get a system that actually hits the state eventually.

Agreed.
Also abnormal (abnormal due to it being very early and likely unfavorable base state) is that with the time frame coming in, it's also odd to see some hints that the future second strong system may make it close to Hawaii in-tact.

GFS keeps this at a low latitude so it wouldn't shock me, if it indeed develops before the base state becomes unfavorable, if it became a long tracker. Probably too low of a lattiude to affect Hawaii but they'll be the usual runs that bring it close.

[cycloneye]

What a 00z GFS run. The 10/20 now develops it and the 0/70 delays development.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050546
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast
of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward, well
south of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

Tonight's 00z Euro sticking to the scenario that favors the 0/70 system.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 5 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development over the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves
west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[aspen]

In the 06z GFS run, the 20/80 system is back to developing on Wednesday, and it ends up interacting and later absorbing the 20/30 system.

[cycloneye]

The 20/80 is taking shape and will be a invest soon.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 5 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development over the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward,
well south of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Invest 97E is up