Tropical Wave in the central Caribbean

[AnnularCane]

Oh that's right...99L is the next up, isn't it.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1280166550251745281

[aspen]

That is a shockingly healthy looking wave, especially for this time of year and with SAL still around in the MDR. I still doubt it’ll develop in the Atlantic; looks like it’ll spawn that other potential hurricane in the EPac in 5-6 days.

[Aric Dunn]

moving far too quickly. the weak vorticity on the NE trailing edge has little convection as it is in the dry air.

needs to be watched as it moves north of PR and Hispaniola. both the Euro and GFS show some hints of something.

[cycloneye]

A fast-moving tropical wave continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands. This disturbance has not become any better organized today,
and development is becoming unlikely. The wave is forecast to move
through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds on some of those islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[abajan]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1280166550251745281

I was just about to mention that outflow boundary.

[EquusStorm]

Down to 0/0 on TWO

[northjaxpro]

Lol, well this rapidly de-escalated from how it appeared earlier today that's for sure!

[toad strangler]

It was a wave and nothing more. A decent looking wave for a time for sure. But just a wave none-the-less. So there was no big poof here.

[cycloneye]

Normal wave for July. Most of Puerto Rico is in a drought and even there is rationing of water as some lakes are going down so we recieve the wave with open arms and hopefully it brings good rains.

[Dougiefresh]

Normal wave for July. Most of Puerto Rico is in a drought and even there is rationing of water as some lakes are going down so we recieve the wave with open arms and hopefully it brings good rains.

https://i.imgur.com/YSW1pYS.png

Barbados is in a severe drought. We really needed those rains.

[Aric Dunn]

I would watch tomorrow once north of Hispaniola.

[tailgater]

Nice tropical wave for some areas that needed it, hope it helped and the wave train should be starting soon. Looks like y’all may have had some gusty winds also

[northjaxpro]

I would watch tomorrow once north of Hispaniola.

Wind shear analysis this morning shows shear drops off considerably in the area of the Bahamas. The wave could have better prospects late this week and into the upcoming weekend, if it can hold together as it traverses w/nw.

[Aric Dunn]

I would watch tomorrow once north of Hispaniola.

Wind shear analysis this morning shows shear drops off considerably in the area of the Bahamas. The wave could have better prospects late this week and into the upcoming weekend, if it can hold together as it traverses w/nw.

This is a prime location for Tropical waves to gain vorticity. Hispaniola acts sort of like something dragging on the southern portion of the wave axis... slower farther south faster flow farther north.. which leads to increased vorticity.. happens all the time.

you can see it happening this morning. shear is high but it has begun to keel over and rotate more.

then once it reaches bahamas as you said, shear will drop off.

[floridasun78]

that area east of Bahamas i don't think will do any thing maybe bring rain to Bahamas maybe Florida the area to watch is round 40w that gfs show as maybe td next few days

[drezee]

Normal wave for July. Most of Puerto Rico is in a drought and even there is rationing of water as some lakes are going down so we recieve the wave with open arms and hopefully it brings good rains.

https://i.imgur.com/YSW1pYS.png

How much rain did you get?

[cycloneye]

Normal wave for July. Most of Puerto Rico is in a drought and even there is rationing of water as some lakes are going down so we recieve the wave with open arms and hopefully it brings good rains.

https://i.imgur.com/YSW1pYS.png

How much rain did you get?

Not much to aliviate the drought. We need much more like what models have for the next wave on Sunday.

[drezee]

Good luck