2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#681 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:09 am

Another look at the 06z GEFS ensemble. Just something to watch

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#682 Postby toad strangler » Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:16 am

A track into the Bahamas would be a classic July climo track. From there a hook N into the Carolina would be more favorable but we'll see. I'm just talking climo track. Not in any way insinuating a developing cyclone.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#683 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:25 am

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1280898554870071297


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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#684 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:06 pm

I think this is the first time I’ve seen Levi dismiss the GEFS.
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GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#685 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:13 am

ummmmm....

SW carrib..

ASCAT showing a closed circ last night.. convection exploding this morning with clear circulation.. will be inland soon..

but we may have just missed a TC lol
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#686 Postby zhukm29 » Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:17 am

Aric Dunn wrote:ummmmm....

SW carrib..

ASCAT showing a closed circ last night.. convection exploding this morning with clear circulation.. will be inland soon..

but we may have just missed a TC lol


Can you post the ASCAT image? I can't seem to find a recent pass that shows the circulation.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#687 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:20 am

zhukm29 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:ummmmm....

SW carrib..

ASCAT showing a closed circ last night.. convection exploding this morning with clear circulation.. will be inland soon..

but we may have just missed a TC lol


Can you post the ASCAT image? I can't seem to find a recent pass that shows the circulation.


its is a partial pass but clearly it was closed 10 hours ago.

and given the convective pattern now.. it is probably even more defined.

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#688 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:35 am

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#689 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:54 am

10 days out.

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#690 Postby chaser1 » Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:57 am



Actually looking pretty classic down there!
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#691 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:38 pm

Image
12z EPS hinting at Gulf development, 10 days out.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#692 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:24 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:[url]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/730884945534517369/ecens_2020-07-09-12Z_240_32.png[url]
12z EPS hinting at Gulf development, 10 days out.

Some recent Euro and GFS runs have been showing a well defined vort slipping into the gulf around the same time frame.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#693 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:[url]https://i.ibb.co/yWY3qvZ/94537026.gif[url]

This needs a circle like asap. Shows the potential the WCaribbean has this season.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#694 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:29 pm


If that verifies and we get Gonzalo in the Gulf before July 23rd (which I find unlikely since that’s ten days out), I will eat the hat I have left over from when Dolly failed to become a hurricane.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#695 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:57 pm

Well, I predicted we would see at least 3 named storms to develop in the North Atlantic basin in July.

I think that is looking pretty good right now!
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#696 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:[url]https://i.ibb.co/yWY3qvZ/94537026.gif[url]

This needs a circle like asap. Shows the potential the WCaribbean has this season.


Yes the W Caribbean is locked and loaded, luckily the GOM isn’t there just yet. Hopefully we can keep the monsters out of this region


Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#697 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:46 pm

18z GFS has something inline with the 12z EPS.
Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#698 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:43 pm

So... yesterday on a few runs from various models. showed something coming off of florida and possibly developing behind Fay..

well check Melbourne radar.. lol
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#699 Postby IsabelaWeather » Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:15 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=catl&product=ir

Tropical wave is looking really beefy right now. Maybe we can get some vorticity?

EDIT: first post here, no idea how to post a gif
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#700 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:01 am

GFS showing Rossby waves calming down and pulling north in the next couple weeks.
Shear should then drop dramatically across the Atlantic.
I expect MDR should start to get pretty active then.
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