ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Just receiving the EC in 3-hr increments. It takes the newly-forming center NW and inland into NC tonight, followed by a NEW center forming to the NE. Very odd...

Oh, and the EC now takes the center inland into southern NJ tomorrow evening (vs. Rhode Island).

[Siker]

Looks like stronger influence from a negatively tilting trough over Ohio is the culprit for the west shift.

[Aric Dunn]

And there we go.. we have a closed circ

[supercane4867]

Mesoscale models such as HRRR have been performing fairly well with this system compared to Global models.

Both GFS and Euro seem to be struggling a bit.

[ScottNAtlanta]

What's up with these pressure reading on recon. Are they transmitting surface pressures?

[GCANE]

Lotsa rain contaminated SFMR readings.
But also a lot in the clear.
In the clear showing 37 to 41 knot surface winds.

[GCANE]

CAPE increasing all day.
Now at 4000 just NE of the CoC.
3000 on shore.
Strong enough to fire decent convection.

[gfsperpendicular]

Give me my little red box NHC

[wxman57]

What's up with these pressure reading on recon. Are they transmitting surface pressures?

Looks like the plane may have some instrument problems.

[GCANE]

Looks like they're having issues with the instruments.

[GCANE]

Naked swirl has definitely fallen apart and new CoC is NE under the cirrus.

[Aric Dunn]

At this rate it will move over cooler water by tomorrow.

[storminabox]

At this rate it will move over cooler water by tomorrow.

Wasn’t it already supposed to do that? Either way, this thing doesn’t have that much time to become a TC considering the cool waters looming to the North. I hope that the storm takes a more easterly track so we can get some beneficial rains in New England (we’ve been pretty dry over the last couple months).

[aspen]

Best track has updated to 40 kt and 1006 mbar, but has kept the name 98L.

[GCANE]

Looks like a high-helicity tower is firing off very near the relocated CoC.

[lrak]

If only I could be there https://www.surfchex.com/cams/hatteras-web-cam/

Looks like the winds have picked up since this morning at the condo

[xironman]

Looks like the LLC is getting together right off of Buxton. Convection way displaced to the NE.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1281320803913674752

[EquusStorm]

Have seen way worse classified, though obviously the lowest level of circulation has had some work to do. Might not get but a few advisories out of it at this rate if something doesn't definitively close off and a single area of vorticity takes over instead of fighting other LLCs. Soooooon.

[MGC]

The swirl off of the Outer Banks looks like another eddy embedded in a cyclonic gyre. Should come ashore in a few hours. Doubt it get upgraded.....MGC