2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[TheStormExpert]

Dang! That's a lot of mid-level dry air out in the Atlantic, any thoughts?

[NDG]

Dang! That's a lot of mid-level dry air out in the Atlantic, any thoughts?

https://i.imgur.com/SJdsYQz.jpg

It shouldn’t be a surprise, like mentioned many times the SAL is in control for now.

[StruThiO]

any thoughts?

Yeah. My thoughts are that it's mid July

[toad strangler]

Dang! That's a lot of mid-level dry air out in the Atlantic, any thoughts?

https://i.imgur.com/SJdsYQz.jpg

Yes, it’s July 11th

[SFLcane]

Dang! That's a lot of mid-level dry air out in the Atlantic, any thoughts?

https://i.imgur.com/SJdsYQz.jpg

Dry sinking air ( SAL) peaks in July. Still have another 2-4 weeks before things ramp up.

[AnnularCane]

Chaserdude Josh Morgerman notorious for riding out Hurricane Dorian in Marsh Harbor last September is ready for anything that comes barreling towards the U.S.!

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1282116120061849602

Now there's an intimidating stare!

He might scare the storms away with that.

[stormlover2013]

It’s July, give it 3 weeks then boom!!

[Shell Mound]

[Hammy]

Dang! That's a lot of mid-level dry air out in the Atlantic, any thoughts?

https://i.imgur.com/SJdsYQz.jpg

That's a very 1999-esque look out there.

[USTropics]

Some significant warming has occurred in the GOM since the beginning of June:

June 1st


Current


Current SSTA global


SST trend past 7 days global

[Shell Mound]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcqtV0JXgAA-Ui1?format=jpg&name=small
https://www.weather.gov/images/okx/1938Hurricane/500mb_slp_19380920_12z.gif
https://www.weather.gov/images/okx/1938Hurricane/500mb_slp_19380921_00z.gif
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e0/1938_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-1938_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3c/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/600px-2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

The latest UKMET forecast for ASO is eerily similar to the synoptic setup at the time of the 1938 New England hurricane.

[IsabelaWeather]

Not sure if this is the right thread for this or not, but the anemic/nearly dead tropical wave has exploded over the Island late overnight. Also seems to have some ever so slight rotation, likely just due to the land friction, but very interesting nonetheless.

[NDG]

Once the dust settles down, look out! The UL winds anomaly across the Caribbean and western MDR are very similar so far to this same time in 2017.




This same time last year UL westerly winds ripping through the Caribbean.

[hurricanes1234]

I don't know how to post an image but yesterday I looked at the deep-layer shear map and for the first time, I saw that many areas in the Caribbean were green (15 knots or less of deep-layer shear).

This is in stark contrast to even last month when there were reds everywhere and shear was completely ripping apart the first few tropical waves as soon as they approached the Eastern Caribbean.

[aspen]

Once the dust settles down, look out! The UL winds anomaly across the Caribbean and western MDR are very similar so far to this same time in 2017.

https://i.imgur.com/Z0iDo1j.gif
https://i.imgur.com/3lBPoGQ.gif

This same time last year UL westerly winds ripping through the Caribbean.
https://i.imgur.com/LL3ZHoC.gif

2020’s shear pattern looks even more favorable than 2017’s. Not only is shear slightly less in the W Caribbean, but the Gulf is also quite favorable. This is in contrast to 2017’s Gulf blob of 6-7 m/s shear.

I’m starting to get a little worried about something big in the Gulf in late July or early August, once the dust settles down and AEWs are able to get that far.

[Shell Mound]

In general, the correlation between shear and Atlantic ACE is stronger in the Caribbean than it is in the tropical Atlantic. The relationship between shear and Atlantic hurricanes is much stronger in July than it is in June. –p. 32

[Aric Dunn]

Just an FYI. Southern deserts of Mauritania, CHAD,Niger and Mali have all received their first measurable rain this past week. In areas that contribute to SAL..

That of course would lead to smaller SAL outbreaks.

Typically this happens around August

[TheStormExpert]

Once the dust settles down, look out! The UL winds anomaly across the Caribbean and western MDR are very similar so far to this same time in 2017.

https://i.imgur.com/Z0iDo1j.gif
https://i.imgur.com/3lBPoGQ.gif

This same time last year UL westerly winds ripping through the Caribbean.
https://i.imgur.com/LL3ZHoC.gif

If anything it looks more favorable especially in the Gulf. I was looking at the shear maps last night and things look quite favorable for at least mid-July.

[Aric Dunn]

In fact it just rained today in the Bodélé Depression which is the main region where the SAL is produced.

with less SAL outbreaks easterly waves will be able to sustain as they traverse Africa. I suppose if you want to talk about indicators..

this is probably the top of the list...


main SAL location circled.

[SFLcane]

Once the dust settles down, look out! The UL winds anomaly across the Caribbean and western MDR are very similar so far to this same time in 2017.

https://i.imgur.com/Z0iDo1j.gif
https://i.imgur.com/3lBPoGQ.gif

This same time last year UL westerly winds ripping through the Caribbean.
https://i.imgur.com/LL3ZHoC.gif

It's not the shear that's the problem Stability/subsidence. Plus the Atlantic is nothing close to 2017 SSTwise. East Atlantic especially