2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

At the moment in 10 days I highly doubt anything will be able to make it to the U.S. East Coast as both the GFS and CMC show a decent trough sitting just off the NE U.S. coast.

[Steve]

East Coast is only a place to watch for things exiting the continent over the next week.

ICON has the convection coming into the Gulf across Florida that follows the low south of LA right now which is following the low off the TX Coast. It no longer wants to develop it until it's almost to the TX Coast. It's got the hook looking rainfall offshore of LA. Simultaneously it brings a small vortex into Canaveral/Daytona area in a few days. Maybe the Gulf system will do something off the TX Coast. In any event, it all looks like one of those 1980's periods where you had the big high pressure and every 2-4 days, wave energy along the western periphery of the high move into the Gulf states.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=84

[Ubuntwo]

12z Euro

[Ivanhater]

Looks like a few disturbances getting into the Gulf the next 10 days. Definitely something to watch coming up

[GCANE]

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

https://i.imgur.com/JRF5sf5.png

12Z GEFS are kind of aggressive developing a system in that area and moves it in a general direction to the NE Caribbean. The 12Z ECMWF hints something as well.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Now there's a bit of a signal from the 12z EPS:

[gatorcane]

Big TUTT low in the SW Atlantic typical of this time of year. No way we are getting development of any MDR wave that heads towards the Bahamas if the GFS right:

[blp]

18z GEFS is waking up. More active than previous runs.

[MississippiWx]

Big TUTT low in the SW Atlantic typical of this time of year. No way we are getting development of any MDR wave that heads towards the Bahamas if the GFS right:

https://i.postimg.cc/tJ0J9ZvP/gfs-shear-atl-36.png

Sometimes the TUTT helps to ignite convection and sharpen the wave axis. Once on the other side of the TUTT, it could find a favorable scenario. Shear forecasts at 200 hours are basically zero skill, however.

[toad strangler]

Big TUTT low in the SW Atlantic typical of this time of year. No way we are getting development of any MDR wave that heads towards the Bahamas if the GFS right:

https://i.postimg.cc/tJ0J9ZvP/gfs-shear-atl-36.png

Sometimes the TUTT helps to ignite convection and sharpen the wave axis. Once on the other side of the TUTT, it could find a favorable scenario. Shear forecasts at 200 hours are basically zero skill, however.

Yep, a TUTT gave Irma a turbo blast as she passed to the SW of said TUTT

[NDG]

Big TUTT low in the SW Atlantic typical of this time of year. No way we are getting development of any MDR wave that heads towards the Bahamas if the GFS right:

https://i.postimg.cc/tJ0J9ZvP/gfs-shear-atl-36.png

The Euro has been persistently showing UL anticyclonic flow on top of the AEW that the GEFS and Euro have been showing developing late next week as it tracks westward. I wouldn't believe that GFS shear forecast past its 96-120 hr forecast, it likes to exaggerate shear by a good 5-10 knots.

[TheProfessor]

Canadian tonight is weaker and further south with the MDR storm it develops. It will be interesting to see how the storm interacts in the Caribbean this run or if it simply goes poof.

Edit: It went poof.

[Steve]

QPF 7 day looks to mostly affect the Keys.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1595048371

[GCANE]

CMC jumping on the wave train.
Wave that came off Africa on Thursday.
Genesis Monday in the ITCZ (10N, 33W).
Takes it to the Islands.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Latest GFS pushes out the GOM genesis 12 hrs from yesterday's 00Z run

[GCANE]

[Aric Dunn]

I must say this wave/area is looking mighty interesting today....

correlates to the GFS ensembles and CMC>.

The axis has started to lift as the ITCZ to east buckles ahead of the next wave. This may cause a kink in axis that eventually leads to the CMC/GFS solutions

[GCANE]

CMC jumping on the wave train.
Wave that came off Africa on Thursday.
Genesis Monday in the ITCZ (10N, 33W).
Takes it to the Islands.

https://i.imgur.com/w2dNoYK.png

https://i.imgur.com/gOPQl8c.png

12Z CMC pushes it deeper into the Carib, just south of Hispaniola