Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba (Is Invest 91L)

[dantonlsu]

Will be an interesting day!

[NDG]

I doubt the recon will be a go this afternoon, there's no developing closed circulation with the vorticity now well west of Key West, it may not be until tomorrow morning that it may try to close off if not Thursday, better chance as it slows down and gets closer to the TX coast. IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like we have our first Vort west of Key west... ahead of even the Mesoscale models..

good old Florida straights.. watch for convection to fire on the east side of that in the coming hours... and pulling that vorticity to the surface.

[GCANE]

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/R2pL6Cp.png

Two oranges from tropical waves in mid-July during a suppressive CCKW phase...this says a lot for the rest of the season once we truly enter its heart.

[northjaxpro]

I doubt the recon will be a go this afternoon, there's no developing closed circulation with the vorticity now well west of Key West, it may not be until tomorrow morning that it may try to close off if not Thursday, better chance as it slows down and gets closer to the TX coast. IMO.

I concur NDG

[GCANE]

925mb vort looking better every 3 hrs

[Aric Dunn]

Look at our new little friend..

850-925mb vorticity increasing.

convection is building just to the east of this over the keys. expect a nice burst of convection soon.. you can see the SE inflow increasing .. something is coming.

this feature is likely just a transient vort but it has created a convergence zone on the southern and eastern flank which will allow for convection to build up through vorticity.

if convection pops shortly.. recon might actually fly later.

[Steve]

NAM 3km at 60 hours sat depiction looks pretty good. It's wrapping up as it moves toward the TX Coast.

[GCANE]

https://i.imgur.com/R2pL6Cp.png

Two oranges from tropical waves in mid-July during a suppressive CCKW phase...this says a lot for the rest of the season once we truly enter its heart.

Its on

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1285553649201094656

[Aric Dunn]

Convection quickly firing with our little vort friend..

not sure this is going to wait to match up with the models before trying to organize lol

[Aric Dunn]

Actually It is looking like less of a Transient feature.. starting to gain some traction...

[EquusStorm]

Not sure why it hasn't gone 91L yet with a medium on the TWO and recon considered, gotta be soon

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure why it hasn't gone 91L yet with a medium on the TWO and recon considered, gotta be soon

it should very soon now that there is an actual vort to attach too.

[St0rmTh0r]

https://i.imgur.com/R2pL6Cp.png

Two oranges from tropical waves in mid-July during a suppressive CCKW phase...this says a lot for the rest of the season once we truly enter its heart.

Its on

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1285553649201094656

Has the MDR ever been this active in late July?

[GCANE]

That LL vort in west Cuba is already building a feeder band from the high TPW air in the west Carib.

[Aric Dunn]

That LL vort in west Cuba is already building a feeder band from the high TPW air in the west Carib.

you mean west of Key west ? no vort over cuba.

and I mentioned earlier that the Vort had a convergence Zone that would start to fire convection..

[GCANE]

That LL vort in west Cuba is already building a feeder band from the high TPW air in the west Carib.

you mean west of Key west ? no vort over cuba.

and I mentioned earlier that the Vort had a convergence Zone that would start to fire convection..

I am looking at the latest 925mb from CIMSS

[dantonlsu]

Really surprised we don't have an invest out of this already.

[NDG]

That LL vort in west Cuba is already building a feeder band from the high TPW air in the west Carib.

you mean west of Key west ? no vort over cuba.

and I mentioned earlier that the Vort had a convergence Zone that would start to fire convection..

I am looking at the latest 925mb from CIMSS

https://i.imgur.com/5nYgjfO.gif

Is 5 hours old.