2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

I've not been paying much attention to the location of the Bermuda High. Would it allow recurves right now?

Of course. It's just a matter of where.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS still shows nothing where other models like the CMC and Euro seem to show a decent tropical system in the long range behind td7, could the GFS be slow on the uptake like it was with td7

[SFLcane]

00z EPS not backing down still quite active.

[cycloneye]

[SFLcane]

Long range EPS wanting to recurve what ever gets into the Caribbean possibly northward. Will be interesting to watch unfold.

[TheStormExpert]

Long range EPS wanting to recurve what ever gets into the Caribbean possibly northward. Will be interesting to watch unfold.

https://i.imgur.com/1DdXQwD.png

Assuming this actually develops considering the GFS shows nothing it’ll be interesting to see if this recurves East of Florida in The Bahamas, over Florida, or north into the Gulf. It looks like there will be a trough directly over the NE U.S. in 10 days or so.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1285883305498488833

[toad strangler]

Long range EPS wanting to recurve what ever gets into the Caribbean possibly northward. Will be interesting to watch unfold.

https://i.imgur.com/1DdXQwD.png

Assuming this actually develops considering the GFS shows nothing it’ll be interesting to see if this recurves East of Florida in The Bahamas, over Florida, or north into the Gulf. It looks like there will be a trough directly over the NE U.S. in 10 days or so.

Yeah I saw that in 500mb but it's so far north Gonzalo wouldn't feel it. Also Gonzalo could very well not be structured enough to be steered by 500mb at that time. I hesitate to mention these setups past 5 days

[aspen]

00z EPS not backing down still quite active.

https://iili.io/dx57Lb.gif

The second MDR system seems to form in 5-6 days, and the precursor wave moves off the coast of Africa in 3 days. I think the NHC might mark the area tomorrow.

[sma10]

12Z CMC full of only bad news today

[SFLcane]

12Z CMC full of only bad news today

[HurricaneFrances04]

There's the July everyone needed to see for a hyperactive season. Looks like the lid is coming off a month earlier than normal.

[supercane4867]

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/kxKkpAc.gif

Even though the Euro said "goodbye" to Gonzalo, it appears to be suggesting that the Caribbean might become more cozy for storms in the near-future.

[sma10]

Honestly can't believe that there is a reasonable chance that we will already be thru the "I" storm before the end of July

[aspen]

A quick run down of the 12z global model runs:

GFS still shows nothing except for a dying Gonzalo

Euro kills Gonzalo as well but has a forming TC in the MDR by 120 hours, and it survives into the Caribbean. 91L peaks at 994 mbar OVER LAND; that’s probably suggesting it could try to rapidly develop before landfall.

CMC keeps Gonzalo alive through the Caribbean and into the Gulf in a track similar to Emily or Allen. It also develops the second MDR system and brings it to hurricane status.

ICON also develops 91L and has a 1001 mbar landfall mid/late Saturday. It also kills off Gonzalo and develops the second MDR system.

[Ubuntwo]

A quick run down of the 12z global model runs:

GFS still shows nothing except for a dying Gonzalo

Euro kills Gonzalo as well but has a forming TC in the MDR by 120 hours, and it survives into the Caribbean. 91L peaks at 994 mbar OVER LAND; that’s probably suggesting it could try to rapidly develop before landfall.

CMC keeps Gonzalo alive through the Caribbean and into the Gulf in a track similar to Emily or Allen. It also develops the second MDR system and brings it to hurricane status.

ICON also develops 91L and has a 1001 mbar landfall mid/late Saturday. It also kills off Gonzalo and develops the second MDR system.

GFS is actually pretty reasonable with Gonzalo, keeps it around until the eastern Caribbean and gets it to 993.

[SFLcane]

12z EPS not done yet tracking towards Bahamas and VERY active. Irma vibes last few runs

[EquusStorm]

We're getting September tracks and wave activity in the last week or so of July. Unreal.

[caneseddy]

12z EPS not done yet tracking towards Bahamas and VERY active. Irma vibes last few runs

https://iili.io/dxyxzg.jpg

Almost identical to the CMC 12z run with that potential hurricane approaching Bahamas

If this verifies and right now it has support from the CMC then this would be the dreaded “I” storm (assuming 91L develops)

Not an official forecast