EPAC: DOUGLAS - Models

[Kingarabian]

A separate thread for models for this system will be better than filling the main thread with model runs since there might be a legitimate threat.

[Kingarabian]

00z ICON:


Low end TS landfall

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS is the strongest so far for this system:


00z GFS 996mb landfall, strongest landfall to this point with 64kt 10m winds.

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET has a Kona hit as a minimal TS. It and the CMC have a weaker peak as well compared to previous runs.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro continues with the strong TS/Cat.1 Maui/Molokai/Lanai landfall solutions.

[Bocadude85]

00z Euro continues with the strong TS/Cat.1 Maui/Molokai/Lanai landfall solutions.

Interesting days ahead.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro continues with the strong TS/Cat.1 Maui/Molokai/Lanai landfall solutions.

Interesting days ahead.

Yeah the Euro's depictions would be the worst possible outcome out of this system for us. Hopefully the models switch it up soon.

[Kingarabian]

00z GEFS:


00z UKMET:


00z Euro:


The stronger ensembles have been consistently riding north.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS strong TS/borderline Cat.1 landfall, east Big Island. Could be Puna/Hilo side.

The GFS graphics are free to view @ http://www.Weathermodels.com

Past 3 00z EPS runs show the members zoning in on the Islands and trending stronger:

You can find high quality premium content like this as well @ http://www.Weathermodels.com

[Kingarabian]

12z model suite so far looks to be focusing on the northern Big-Island:

12z GFS looks like a clean Hilo-Big Island hit. 997mb would be the pressure and 64kt winds:


12z UKMET has a moderate TS hit in the same area as the GFS.

12z ICON has a minimal TS hit on Maui.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro has an Oahu landfall @ 988mb.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS shows a well intact hurricane hitting the Big Island and not your typical Hawaiian sheared special.

Euro shows the same in its Oahu landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

I’ll look more later but the big question here is what extent this gets sheared.

[Kingarabian]

I’ll look more later but the big question here is what extent this gets sheared.

Could be a close call as SHIPS makes shear unfavorable just as it nears land.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 73 80 87 95 94 87 75 63 54 46 39 34 31 28 25
V (KT) LAND 60 66 73 80 87 95 94 87 75 63 54 46 40 36 32 29 26
V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 71 75 80 81 76 69 62 54 48 42 38 35 32 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 5 2 4 8 11 15 17 23 26 30 28 28
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 0 3 5 6
SHEAR DIR 307 323 353 9 17 39 9 315 280 259 270 262 254 258 256 248 261
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 27.7 25.6 25.6 25.3 25.4 25.8 26.0 27.2 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 153 151 143 121 121 118 119 123 125 138 144 143 143 148
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9
700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 69 66 64 60 58 52 49 45 43 40 40 45 45 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 21 20 20 18 15 14 13 10 8 7 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR 58 57 51 46 38 17 7 2 0 -8 -10 -9 -6 -10 -13 -26 -24
200 MB DIV 58 60 73 85 41 15 15 4 20 2 -11 -7 2 -2 -9 11 14
700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 3 4 2 2 2 0 8 4 0 -3 0 -3
LAND (KM) 2285 2362 2429 2482 2332 1998 1654 1316 977 665 371 77 91 176 405 743 1064
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.8 13.3 14.6 16.0 17.0 18.2 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 128.9 130.1 131.3 132.6 133.9 136.7 139.6 142.6 145.6 148.5 151.3 154.1 156.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 14 16 17 16 15
HEAT CONTENT 13 14 20 26 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 23 16 11 18

[Kingarabian]

12z HMON not letting up but looks like it's to the right of the consensus:


12z HWRF sheared landfall:


Hopefully the models continue adjusting to the right side of the consensus, something similar to Julio 2014, Ignacio 2015, and Lester 2016.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS:


12z UKMET:


12z GFS:

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think the big unknown here is the shear forecast. If my memory serves me correctly, most storms approaching from the east are taken out by shear rather than ocean temps.

[Highteeld]

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON TS Maui landfall.


18z ICON also sped up. Speed is a factor here. Slower storm could mean less high pressure and a possible track away from the islands. Faster storm could mean prevailing high pressure.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS looks like 77kt-10m wind landfall on Maui or just passes through the channel between the Big Island and Maui:

It too came in with a faster forward speed.