ATL: HANNA - Models

[HurricaneBrain]

I found that weird also. Same thing with the TS watches... notice how there’s TS watches well south/west (down the TX coast) of the three day cone but none north/east (up the TX coast) of the three day cone. You’d think it’d be opposite. Same with the rainfall estimates as you pointed out.

Strange to see how the NHC has landfall near Matagorda Bay and the heaviest qpf by far is over STX on the models. Hardly anything north and east of the center.

[Steve]

I found that weird also. Same thing with the TS watches... notice how there’s TS watches well south/west (down the TX coast) of the three day cone but none north/east (up the TX coast) of the three day cone. You’d think it’d be opposite. Same with the rainfall estimates as you pointed out.

Strange to see how the NHC has landfall near Matagorda Bay and the heaviest qpf by far is over STX on the models. Hardly anything north and east of the center.

A lot of times, yeah. But look at the upper pattern. It won’t have a choice. It is bend west.

[Cpv17]

I found that weird also. Same thing with the TS watches... notice how there’s TS watches well south/west (down the TX coast) of the three day cone but none north/east (up the TX coast) of the three day cone. You’d think it’d be opposite. Same with the rainfall estimates as you pointed out.

Strange to see how the NHC has landfall near Matagorda Bay and the heaviest qpf by far is over STX on the models. Hardly anything north and east of the center.

A lot of times, yeah. But look at the upper pattern. It won’t have a choice. It is bend west.

Yeah I get the bend west but typically the north and east side of a tc is the dirty side. Looks flipped around with this one with the south and west side being the dirty side.

[jasons2k]

What amazes me about the models is the gradient along the coast. Look at it, on all those runs. You could take away the land features from the map, and tell someone to trace the Gulf coastline from Appalachee Bay across o Matagorda Bay just based off of the rainfall 'wall' or cutoff along the coast, and you'd have a pretty accurate map of the northern Gulf Coast.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I found that weird also. Same thing with the TS watches... notice how there’s TS watches well south/west (down the TX coast) of the three day cone but none north/east (up the TX coast) of the three day cone. You’d think it’d be opposite. Same with the rainfall estimates as you pointed out.

A lot of times, yeah. But look at the upper pattern. It won’t have a choice. It is bend west.

Yeah I get the bend west but typically the north and east side of a tc is the dirty side. Looks flipped around with this one with the south and west side being the dirty side.

I believe it's due to the southeasterly to easterly flow aloft caused by the upper-level low over the Bay of Campeche. Interesting to note, that's for sure.

[HurricaneBrain]

NHC TS wind speed probability map is more favorable toward mid/upper TX coast than STX coast. Even without that graphic, I’m fully expecting watches to be issued tomorrow up toward Sabine Pass.

I found that weird also. Same thing with the TS watches... notice how there’s TS watches well south/west (down the TX coast) of the three day cone but none north/east (up the TX coast) of the three day cone. You’d think it’d be opposite. Same with the rainfall estimates as you pointed out.

Strange to see how the NHC has landfall near Matagorda Bay and the heaviest qpf by far is over STX on the models. Hardly anything north and east of the center.

A lot of times, yeah. But look at the upper pattern. It won’t have a choice. It is bend west.

[South Texas Storms]

6z HWRF and HMON are coming in much stronger and a bit farther north this run. I wonder if they are initializing a bit better than the global models (especially since TD Eight looks pretty healthy on satellite this morning).

[xironman]

HMON has a hurricane, the data from yesterdays flight couldn't have hurt.

[jconsor]

Five out of 20 members of the CTCX ensemble (COAMPS Navy model initialized with GFS conditions) make this into a hurricane before landfall:

[stormlover2013]

Stronger the storm more north, weaker it is will stay more south

[aspen]

Imagine this becomes the season’s first hurricane and Gonzalo doesn’t. It is in a slightly more favorable environment where the biggest limiting factor is time, no SAL or shear.

HMON and HWRF are the only major models that bring this to hurricane intensity, or at least close to it. The rest of the global models remain weak with this.

[dantonlsu]

Looks like a shift north on a coupler of these..

[Steve]

Looks like a shift north on a coupler of these..

The 6z mesoscales I looked at bring it up pretty far north and then seem to want to ride it down the TX Coast. That's an atypical track, and I'm not sure if it's just because it's near the southern edge of their range or if the system wants to stay offshore and ride the coast or if it's some kind of loop before the push comes in and pushes it off to the west. 12Z stuff should be out over the next couple of hours. I'm also interested to see if ICON or GFS still wants to bring up a second spin a little farther east early in the week. ICON has it for the second run. Maybe there's just a weakness there or possibly some energy that doesn't spin, I don't know.



That's valid 1am Tuesday morning. Again, I don't know.

[lovingseason2013]

What is that Feature over Pensacola Area?

Looks like a shift north on a coupler of these..

The 6z mesoscales I looked at bring it up pretty far north and then seem to want to ride it down the TX Coast. That's an atypical track, and I'm not sure if it's just because it's near the southern edge of their range or if the system wants to stay offshore and ride the coast or if it's some kind of loop before the push comes in and pushes it off to the west. 12Z stuff should be out over the next couple of hours. I'm also interested to see if ICON or GFS still wants to bring up a second spin a little farther east early in the week. ICON has it for the second run. Maybe there's just a weakness there or possibly some energy that doesn't spin, I don't know.

https://i.imgur.com/c4RHwn6.png

That's valid 1am Tuesday morning. Again, I don't know.

[Steve]

What is that Feature over Pensacola Area?

Looks like a shift north on a coupler of these..

The 6z mesoscales I looked at bring it up pretty far north and then seem to want to ride it down the TX Coast. That's an atypical track, and I'm not sure if it's just because it's near the southern edge of their range or if the system wants to stay offshore and ride the coast or if it's some kind of loop before the push comes in and pushes it off to the west. 12Z stuff should be out over the next couple of hours. I'm also interested to see if ICON or GFS still wants to bring up a second spin a little farther east early in the week. ICON has it for the second run. Maybe there's just a weakness there or possibly some energy that doesn't spin, I don't know.

https://i.imgur.com/c4RHwn6.png

That's valid 1am Tuesday morning. Again, I don't know.

I don't know. It's either leftover energy from 8 or it's something else coming up or backing over (possibly a piece of a trough?). We'll see if it's still on the 12z runs for anything.

[plasticup]

Imagine this becomes the season’s first hurricane and Gonzalo doesn’t. It is in a slightly more favorable environment where the biggest limiting factor is time, no SAL or shear.

HMON and HWRF are the only major models that bring this to hurricane intensity, or at least close to it. The rest of the global models remain weak with this.

I think Gonzalo already was. But yeah, now I think this storm has a better chance at getting the label. Wouldn't have said that 24 hours ago!

[Steve]

ICON still has the weak rotation hitting Bay County early Tuesday morning.



It also brings up a little feature from the Caribbean at the end of the run next Thursday night.

[Extratropical94]

Imagine this becomes the season’s first hurricane and Gonzalo doesn’t. It is in a slightly more favorable environment where the biggest limiting factor is time, no SAL or shear.

HMON and HWRF are the only major models that bring this to hurricane intensity, or at least close to it. The rest of the global models remain weak with this.

I think Gonzalo already was. But yeah, now I think this storm has a better chance at getting the label. Wouldn't have said that 24 hours ago!

I'd rather have future Josephine (or any storm after that) become our first cane and steal the "highest number of consecutive named storms before the first hurricane of the season" record from 2011.

[plasticup]

Imagine this becomes the season’s first hurricane and Gonzalo doesn’t. It is in a slightly more favorable environment where the biggest limiting factor is time, no SAL or shear.

HMON and HWRF are the only major models that bring this to hurricane intensity, or at least close to it. The rest of the global models remain weak with this.

I think Gonzalo already was. But yeah, now I think this storm has a better chance at getting the label. Wouldn't have said that 24 hours ago!

I'd rather have future Josephine (or any storm after that) become our first cane and steal the "highest number of consecutive named storms before the first hurricane of the season" record from 2011.

Ah, yes, that famous record!

[davidiowx]

Looks like the 12z HWRF initialized well and this takes it straight into Rockport area.