ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#781 Postby catskillfire51 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:26 am

Steve wrote:Now we're talking.

https://i.imgur.com/dklxPJk.jpg


Makes me want to stay up to watch but I know there will be more to see tomorrow
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#782 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:30 am

catskillfire51 wrote:
Steve wrote:Now we're talking.

https://i.imgur.com/dklxPJk.jpg


Makes me want to stay up to watch but I know there will be more to see tomorrow


Yeah, it's going to be good tomorrow. Saturday am will be the time to watch live feeds if we can get some.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#783 Postby Ian2401 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:41 am

big blow up of convection
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#784 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:54 am

System still not perfectly aligned vertically, hence the offset of the heaviest convection to the south of the LLC. It's not terrible, and they're moving closer together, but until Hanna can unify the MLC and the LLC in one place, expect only slow strengthening and pulsing convection.

Still a very good looking minimal TS.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#785 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:00 am

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:System still not perfectly aligned vertically, hence the offset of the heaviest convection to the south of the LLC. It's not terrible, and they're moving closer together, but until Hanna can unify the MLC and the LLC in one place, expect only slow strengthening and pulsing convection.

Still a very good looking minimal TS.

I don't see much to indicate a tilted vortex? Mind giving some support? The offset convection is moving towards and rotating around the LLC, which seems to hint at a stacked system.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#786 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:25 am

That is very distinct curved band building up around the center...

now things start to get interesting if that continues.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#787 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:40 am

Ubuntwo wrote:
NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:System still not perfectly aligned vertically, hence the offset of the heaviest convection to the south of the LLC. It's not terrible, and they're moving closer together, but until Hanna can unify the MLC and the LLC in one place, expect only slow strengthening and pulsing convection.

Still a very good looking minimal TS.

I don't see much to indicate a tilted vortex? Mind giving some support? The offset convection is moving towards and rotating around the LLC, which seems to hint at a stacked system.

It was actually mentioned that the MLC is slightly offset to the SE of the LLC in the tropicaltidbits video for today, but I believe that still is partially the case when viewing the vorticity analysis of the GoM.

Here is the 850mb analysis:
Image

By contrast, here is the 500mb analysis:
Image
Here, there's a subtle offset of the vorticity between the two levels, which implies to me that the system may not be completely stacked just yet.
Admittedly, these screenshots are taken of the 03z analysis, and so may be slightly outdated. The energy at 500mb also appears to be shifting to being over the LLC, as can be seen when going back through the archived analysis for the area. However, there's still a bit of a sign in current IR imagery that the MLC is still slightly offset to the south of the LLC.

Here, the LLC is outlined in blue, while the majority of tonight's heaviest convection is outlined in grey.
Image
Now, this does not necessarily mean that the MLC is within that heavier convection, but it still seems like the storm is not perfectly aligned to have that convection fire more directly over the LLC. It's definitely subtle, and as you said, that convection is indeed beginning to rotate around that LLC, but to me it still seems like Hanna is not quite perfectly stacked, and that may be another factor limiting intensification for now.

Please correct me if I'm off about this.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#788 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:51 am

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:
NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:System still not perfectly aligned vertically, hence the offset of the heaviest convection to the south of the LLC. It's not terrible, and they're moving closer together, but until Hanna can unify the MLC and the LLC in one place, expect only slow strengthening and pulsing convection.

Still a very good looking minimal TS.

I don't see much to indicate a tilted vortex? Mind giving some support? The offset convection is moving towards and rotating around the LLC, which seems to hint at a stacked system.

It was actually mentioned that the MLC is slightly offset to the SE of the LLC in the tropicaltidbits video for today, but I believe that still is partially the case when viewing the vorticity analysis of the GoM.

Here is the 850mb analysis:
https://i.imgur.com/GkTbeQJ.png

By contrast, here is the 500mb analysis:
https://i.imgur.com/s5E9Cgm.png
Here, there's a subtle offset of the vorticity between the two levels, which implies to me that the system may not be completely stacked just yet.
Admittedly, these screenshots are taken of the 03z analysis, and so may be slightly outdated. The energy at 500mb also appears to be shifting to being over the LLC, as can be seen when going back through the archived analysis for the area. However, there's still a bit of a sign in current IR imagery that the MLC is still slightly offset to the south of the LLC.

Here, the LLC is outlined in blue, while the majority of tonight's heaviest convection is outlined in grey.
https://i.imgur.com/rrN2fmO.png
Now, this does not necessarily mean that the MLC is within that heavier convection, but it still seems like the storm is not perfectly aligned to have that convection fire more directly over the LLC. It's definitely subtle, and as you said, that convection is indeed beginning to rotate around that LLC, but to me it still seems like Hanna is not quite perfectly stacked, and that may be another factor limiting intensification for now.

Please correct me if I'm off about this.

Hadn't checked the CIMSS vorticity analysis, but yep that seems to check out (though it is a few hours old). The tight vortex with well-defined symmetrical outflow had me fooled - just goes to show that there's more than meets the eye. As long as convection persists over the center, though, this should become more vertically aligned and further intensify.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#789 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:17 am

TXNT27 KNES 240542
TCSNTL

A. 08L (HANNA)

B. 24/0531Z

C. 26.5N

D. 92.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
3.0 BASED ON RAPID 24 HOUR DEVELOPMENT. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#790 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:18 am

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUL 2020 Time : 065024 UTC
Lat : 26:21:31 N Lon : 91:59:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 997.0mb/ 41.0kt
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#791 Postby Jr0d » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:20 am

Been working all night, just took a look at Hanna fir the first time as an official tropical storm. I think the chances of rapid intensification are high right now. Looking heathy and ready to pop in my gumble amatuer opinion.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#792 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:21 am

Jr0d wrote:Been working all night, just took a look at Hanna fir the first time as an official tropical storm. I think the chances of rapid intensification are high right now. Looking heathy and ready to pop in my gumble amatuer opinion.

I think a 45moh to 50mph storm is happening right now.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#793 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:28 am

Next recon leaves in 2 hours.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#794 Postby Hurricane Mike » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:39 am

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:Next recon leaves in 2 hours.


Excellent.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#795 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:52 am

Who would've thought that the season would already be looking like this in July...

Image
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#796 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:58 am

Fun fact: Since records dating back to 1842, Hannah is the first H storm to be active in the month of July. Tropical Storm Harvey in 2005, which formed on August 3rd, held the previous record for earliest named H storm.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#797 Postby Hammy » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:10 am

That is some massive outflow and I dare say this is starting to resemble Katrina while it was over the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#798 Postby Chris90 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:22 am

If I was in the potential landfall area I'd be watching closely. Hanna is producing some really nice convection and seems to be getting herself together. I think she might be one of those that puts on a good burst of intensification in the last 12-18 hours before landfall. The sooner she builds a core the more time she'll have to do some serious intensifying. I don't think it's unreasonable to say she's got about a 50/50 shot at hurricane status.

But since I'm tossing around my personal beliefs on her chance for hurricane status and she's threatening land, I'm just going to add the disclaimer that I'm an amateur with no degree in meteorology and you should refer to the officials for actual, legitimate information from experts.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#799 Postby Nightwatch » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:23 am

Extratropical94 wrote:Who would've thought that the season would already be looking like this in July...

https://i.imgur.com/GVHdKdc.png


Makes me think off 2005 where we had TS Zeta on December 30th or so...
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#800 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:24 am

Alrighty ,,, now we might have a slightly bigger issue than a TS heading into saturday morning.. ....
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