ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[Fountainguy97]

Gust of 103 as Laguna Madre North station passed through eyewall. Not sure if it’s legit.

https://windalert.com/spot/26189

[Aric Dunn]

1 min sustained at the Buoy in the east quad of 78 mph now..

[xironman]

The instantaneous wind at 925 was impressive

925mb 548m (1,798 ft) 21.4°C (70.5°F) 20.5°C (69°F) 185° (from the S) 110 knots (127 mph)

[Craters]

No doubt this bombed as it hit the coast.
I'll have to give GFS credit on this one even though it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know it would.

More credit to the HWRF on this one. Called this even when Hanna was a tropical depression while the GFS was showing a weak tropical storm.

It's really too bad that we still have to wait until everything is over to figure out which model was the one to watch. Getting the track right is one thing, and getting the intensity right is another thing completely, but it sure would be nice if just one could be consistently reliable in its performance. (And I don't mean reliably bad. Even just reliably middlin' would be a big step.)

[Hammy]

No doubt this bombed as it hit the coast.
I'll have to give GFS credit on this one even though it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know it would.

More credit to the HWRF on this one. Called this even when Hanna was a tropical depression while the GFS was showing a weak tropical storm.

It's really too bad that we still have to wait until everything is over to figure out which model was the one to watch. Getting the track right is one thing, and getting the intensity right is another thing completely, but it sure would be nice if just one could be consistently reliable in its performance. (And I don't mean reliably bad. Even just reliably middlin' would be a big step.)

NAM did really well, it was the first to show a sudden burst in strengthening in the few hours before landfall. It's another that's really improved especially with more westward-moving systems (not sure why it excessively strengthens poleward movers)

[ScottNAtlanta]

There are several 90+ mph winds in the most current recon sample of the SE side. The eye looks like it is clearing out on the visible sat loop

[xironman]

Looks like they will give it one more try before landfall. They will need to go straight up the coast after passing through so maybe they will sample the heavy convection there now.

[cheezyWXguy]

This looks like it’s final effort to strengthen. Radar looks the best it has so far, closing off that weakness in the western eye wall.

[Kazmit]

I’m thinking this just barely gets to cat 2 before landfall, hopefully recon can confirm it though.

[gfsperpendicular]

...

[Highteeld]

90 knot gust at port mansfield Bouy

[Highteeld]

90 knot gust at port mansfield Bouy

well, 17 miles north

[Hypercane_Kyle]

80 knots, extrapolated 969.6mb on the last pass.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/NWSBrownsville/status/1287112732911656960

[CrazyC83]

The instantaneous wind at 925 was impressive

925mb 548m (1,798 ft) 21.4°C (70.5°F) 20.5°C (69°F) 185° (from the S) 110 knots (127 mph)

That would translate into 83 kt at the surface. Might be a bit high though.

[GCANE]

Long range scanners indicate a future Bones forecast within 6 hours.


[youtube]https://youtu.be/qN0oVavm2Eo[/youtube]

[EquusStorm]

Eyewall dramatically more closed and impressive in the last hour, this thing isn't going to be stopped by anything but being onshore

[CrazyC83]

All things considered, unless we get a land observation suggesting higher, 80 kt should be the intensity at landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

Pressure does appear to still be dropping.. if this had another 12 hours would probably be looking at a major making landfall.

[Craters]

We just had part of a feeder band barrel through Alvin (south of Houston, about halfway to the coast) within the last hour. Got almost an inch of very cold rain in about 20 minutes.