ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[ronjon]

12z GFS parallel much closer approach to Bahamas, Florida, and eventually landfalls in eastern NC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020072612&fh=48

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe at this point we shouldn’t even acknowledge the models until a Tropical Depression or Storm forms.

[TheStormExpert]

I hope nobody starts cancelling this season if the models don't show a hurricane by tonight.

Remember Harvey falling apart in LATE August in 2017?

Might cancel the rest of July, but definitely not the season.........

Well July’s already over performed.

[SFLcane]

12z running just north of Puerto Rico and DR. Heading W.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS parallel much closer approach to Bahamas, Florida, and eventually landfalls in eastern NC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020072612&fh=48

I can’t remember...is the Para the new GFS or the old one?


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[caneseddy]

12z GFS parallel much closer approach to Bahamas, Florida, and eventually landfalls in eastern NC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020072612&fh=48

I can’t remember...is the Para the new GFS or the old one?




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The new one

[TheStormExpert]

Here’s the latest 12z EPS Ensembles for what it’s worth.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS parallel much closer approach to Bahamas, Florida, and eventually landfalls in eastern NC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020072612&fh=48

I can’t remember...is the Para the new GFS or the old one?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It’s the new.

[cycloneye]

Maybe at this point we shouldn’t even acknowledge the models until a Tropical Depression or Storm forms.

Or when the plane on Tuesday punts data to the models.

[ConvergenceZone]

I hope nobody starts cancelling this season if the models don't show a hurricane by tonight.

Remember Harvey falling apart in LATE August in 2017?

Might cancel the rest of July, but definitely not the season.........

Well July’s already over performed.

True, which is why I said "the rest of July"

[CrazyC83]

It seems to come down to strength in the medium term. An earlier formation and stronger storm before the islands sends it north. A weaker storm sends it into the Caribbean Sea.

[DestinHurricane]

UKMET with 969 Hurricane east of Bahamas heading NW at hour 144. UKMET has a strong right bias, correct?

[Ubuntwo]

UKMET with 969 Hurricane east of Bahamas heading NW at hour 144. UKMET has a strong right bias, correct?

The UK actually has a pretty strong left bias, frequently overdoing ridging. Kept sending Barry into TX for example.

[OuterBanker]

Until 92l slows down I don't think any model wil be accurate. Until is slows and consolidates no model will get a handle on it.

[gatorcane]

Global models are more than capable of handling fast moving and systems that don’t have an LLC or haven’t consolidated. That is definitely a misconception some have about the models. Here are the 18Z models from SFWMD:

[SFLcane]

Heading WNW-NW very close to SFL..

[pgoss11]

Global models are more than capable of handling fast moving and systems that don’t have an LLC or haven’t consolidated. That is definitely a misconception some have about the models. Here are the 18Z models from SFWMD:

https://i.postimg.cc/wTPfMNd2/storm-92.gif

Those models send it out to the fishes early.

[SFLcane]

950’s

[otowntiger]

Until 92l slows down I don't think any model wil be accurate. Until is slows and consolidates no model will get a handle on it.

Or it may not even form, if it doesn’t slow down.

[pgoss11]

:eek: 926mb

https://iili.io/dTsjwb.gif

Hopefully that’s not happening. Would that be a Cat 5?