ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[St0rmTh0r]

This is finally consolidating.

https://i.ibb.co/qrXK6KN/mimictpw-natl-latest.gif

Look at that moisture it's pulling in and look at the wave behind this

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This by far stood out to me the most in the discussion..

Although the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity
guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of
20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the
Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced
shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system's
impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations. As a
result, this is not being considered a negative intensity factor
compared to land interaction.

[St0rmTh0r]

So something that has to be stated from the NHC Discussion https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/refresh/MIATCDAT4+html/MIATCDAT4_290253.html

the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system's impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations.

So essentially, all the models are very wrong and are infact giving quite conservative intensification forecasting because there is forcasted shear that doesn't exist.

Truly a crazy time we live in.

And Florida in the strike zone? Boy this is a catastrophe unfolding before the storm even hits. The panic is going to be unprecedented l

[SapphireSea]

This by far stood out to me the most in the discussion..

Although the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity
guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of
20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the
Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced
shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system's
impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations. As a
result, this is not being considered a negative intensity factor
compared to land interaction.

Reading into this I think NHC is also not believing in a upper trough digging to the E. Coast as much as models are indicating. I can't imagine with the easterlies as strong as they are that there wouldn't be significant shear ahead of the trough.

[sma10]

So something that has to be stated from the NHC Discussion https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/refresh/MIATCDAT4+html/MIATCDAT4_290253.html

the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system's impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations.

So essentially, all the models are very wrong and are infact giving quite conservative intensification forecasting because there is forcasted shear that doesn't exist.

Truly a crazy time we live in.

And Florida in the strike zone? Boy this is a catastrophe unfolding before the storm even hits. The panic is going to be unprecedented l

Surely, there must be something between "this thing is going to be completely dead before 20N" and "unprecedented panic"?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

You can tell how much of a forecasting challenge this one is just by reading the length of the discussion. Stewart's reasoning is sound as always.

[tiger_deF]

So something that has to be stated from the NHC Discussion https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/refresh/MIATCDAT4+html/MIATCDAT4_290253.html

So essentially, all the models are very wrong and are infact giving quite conservative intensification forecasting because there is forcasted shear that doesn't exist.

Truly a crazy time we live in.

And Florida in the strike zone? Boy this is a catastrophe unfolding before the storm even hits. The panic is going to be unprecedented l

Surely, there must be something between "this thing is going to be completely dead before 20N" and "unprecedented panic"?

That's how you know this forum is a place of rich diversity of ideas, it's not a season on here unless there is constant arguing over invests

[sma10]

So the 0Z ICON has a message for S Florida this weekend: build an ark

[Sciencerocks]

So something that has to be stated from the NHC Discussion https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/refresh/MIATCDAT4+html/MIATCDAT4_290253.html

the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system's impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations.

So essentially, all the models are very wrong and are infact giving quite conservative intensification forecasting because there is forcasted shear that doesn't exist.

Truly a crazy time we live in.

And Florida in the strike zone? Boy this is a catastrophe unfolding before the storm even hits. The panic is going to be unprecedented l

Watch this do a fay and head over each and every big island in the caribbean just before it pulls out into the Florida straights for about 12 hours before landfall. Anything from a irene 2011, Fay 2008 to a Dennis 2005 is possible.

[DestinHurricane]

On another note, doesn't this feel really familiar and eerie? A H storm hits Texas and surprisingly intensifies before landfall and then a Cape Verde i storm has a track up the spine of Florida. Obviously this is not even remotely close to being as bad as Irma but it still feels weird.

[CM2]

On another note, doesn't this feel really familiar and eerie? A H storm hits Texas and surprisingly intensifies before landfall and then a Cape Verde i storm has a track up the spine of Florida. Obviously this is not even remotely close to being as bad as Irma but it still feels weird.

Feels like dorain in that all the models are horribly off in every reguard.

[SFLcane]

Recon on its way!

[Ian2401]

Will recon find a closed center? Take your bets

[Hurricaneman]

Will recon find a closed center? Take your bets

I’d say no but could be wrong

[tarheelprogrammer]

Will recon find a closed center? Take your bets

Nah bruh, nah

[SapphireSea]

Will recon find a closed center? Take your bets

A closed center near but not at the surface as seen before is my bet. No LLC. There is outflow now, but organization of convection is deteriorating despite some impressive clusters.

[chaser1]

Will recon find a closed center? Take your bets

No closed center found but increasing evidence (lower pressure, sharper wave axis, closely located convection popping) of a new center possibly forming near 12.5N & 59W.

[Craters]

Will recon find a closed center? Take your bets

Nope, not at the surface -- with a qualification. In my humble opinion, PTC 9 is too close to South America for a good, closed circulation. Having said that, I wouldn't rule out a gaggle of random zephyrs that would make it look like its southern sector were closed off.

Never trust random zephyrs.

[MississippiWx]

The low level structure is definitely better than earlier today. I believe recon will confirm. However, I believe it’s a toss-up if they find a center defined enough to classify it a TC. It’s very close, IMO.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like a low level center near 14.5 and 59.