ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CM2]

Well this should make you think.
https://imgur.com/2MiHFHc

Can you link me to this?

Just the Navy's website
https://tinyurl.com/y5hoaqdh

[DestinHurricane]

Probably won't get an upgrade until it's passed the GAs.

Won't likely be anything left, I'm not buying the models given they showed the same sort of intensification with other weaker storms in this location and it doesn't happen.

That's what i'm thinking as well. I was just saying IF it is to be upgraded it will be if it somehow survives the shredder. The probability of that happening (and it being named) is low.

[abajan]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Slowing down..

Moving a bit more westerly too: currently 285 vs 290 for the last several advisories.

[BobHarlem]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Slowing down..

Moving a bit more westerly too: currently 285 vs 290 for the last several advisories.

It's already a good bit SW of the 18z model initialization points, I'm starting to get Irma vibes and wondering if the UKMET has the right idea here.

[STRiZZY]

5PM: LOCATION...16.4N 65.6W

8PM: LOCATION...16.0N 66.3W

.4 degrees south... so like 7 miles?

[DestinHurricane]

Slowing down..

Moving a bit more westerly too: currently 285 vs 290 for the last several advisories.

It's already a good bit SW of the 18z model initialization points, I'm starting to get Irma vibes and wondering if the UKMET has the right idea here.

It can't get there alive because Hispaniola. Irma was coming in from a better angle. It's either going to skirt or stay offshore of S Florida or it's going to die (because Hispaniola).

[AnnularCane]

Hispaniola isn't necessarily a death sentence for storms.

[DestinHurricane]

Hispaniola isn't necessarily a death sentence for storms.

The eastern part of it isn't but it is hard for any TC to overcome the 11,000 foot high mountains that are in the central and western parts of the island.

[SFLcane]

Lol Is thing thing poofing? Convection has decreased dramatically. I just don’t know about that upgrade by tonight.

[STRiZZY]

Moving a bit more westerly too: currently 285 vs 290 for the last several advisories.

It's already a good bit SW of the 18z model initialization points, I'm starting to get Irma vibes and wondering if the UKMET has the right idea here.

It can't get there alive because Hispaniola. Irma was coming in from a better angle. It's either going to skirt or stay offshore of S Florida or it's going to die (because Hispaniola).

Not true. There plenty of examples of waves,depressions and tropical storms that have tangled with Hispaniola and lived to fight another day.
It's broad structure gives it a chance to survive impact with the island. If it were more compact, the affects would be more pronounced and negative to the circulation.

[jlauderdal]

Hispaniola isn't necessarily a death sentence for storms.

True, its not a default that there is major disruption, every storm is different and even deep systems pass over with minimal disruption...also, storms do their best to avoid land

[Blown Away]

5PM: LOCATION...16.4N 65.6W

8PM: LOCATION...16.0N 66.3W

.4 degrees south... so like 7 miles?

@27 miles

[STRiZZY]

Lol Is thing thing poofing? Convection has decreased dramatically. I just don’t know about that upgrade by tonight.

Just a low in the cycle. Expect more to fire up in the coming hours. It will interesting to see if the southern portion continues to have the better convection throughout the night.

[Evil Jeremy]

Lol Is thing thing poofing? Convection has degreased dramatically. I just don’t know about that upgrade by tonight.

Don’t look now.... well, maybe look now: https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

I spy the beginning of several convective bursts within the last half hour.

[STRiZZY]

5PM: LOCATION...16.4N 65.6W

8PM: LOCATION...16.0N 66.3W

.4 degrees south... so like 7 miles?

@27 miles

You're right. Man I need to brush up on my math before the Fall semester.

[aspen]

I’m starting to lean towards the solution where PTC-9 survives going over Hispaniola and land interaction takes off the southern part, allowing the northern part to become Isaias. The two blobs seem even further apart now; Hispaniola might break them apart.

[CaribJam]

Can a pro explain this extract from the discussion for me, please:
More recently, a band has
developed over the southwestern portion of the broad circulation
and it appears that the system may be closer to acquiring a
well-defined center

Are they hinting/suggesting that the "centre" may be forming to the southwest? And what influence will this have on the short-term movement of the system, especially for us in the Central Caribbean?
Thanks

If it's further south, then that means the general path of the storm will also be further south, though because it's a big storm it isn't gonna rapidly intensify anytime soon. We don't really know where the storm is going because the models are initializing it about 70-80 miles north of where it probably actually is. Though worse case you end up with some sloppy tropical storm weather. I don't think there is any doubt the greater Antilles are not gonna receive anything more than a TS at worse. The main concern for a hurricane in any capacity is mainly the Bahamas and the US.

Yeah, and a bunch of torrential rainfall. Let's not forget that little detail, shall we.

Thanks Abajan for the critical little details. I have been preparing...

How were you affected? Hope all is now well. There seems to be a queue of systems lining up from Africa. Have a safe season.

[SFLcane]

18z Euro into SFL...intensity probably a weak to moderate TS.

[Ian2401]

hot towers popping up just in time for recon in a little bit

[TheStormExpert]

Lol Is thing thing poofing? Convection has degreased dramatically. I just don’t know about that upgrade by tonight.

Again it looks like crap tonight! This thing just doesn’t want to get named.