ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[tolakram]

18z Euro seems a bit westward.

[url]ht%20tps://i.imgur.com/rfl1GSF.png[/url]

[url]ht%20tps://i.imgur.com/BLeUeNe.png[/url]

That is a pay site, as far as I can tell posting images is not allowed. Correct me if you know otherwise.

[floridasun78]

18z Euro seems a bit westward.

[url]ht%20tps://i.imgur.com/rfl1GSF.png[/url]

[url]ht%20tps://i.imgur.com/BLeUeNe.png[/url]

That is a pay site, as far as I can tell posting images is not allowed. Correct me if you know otherwise.

not same as tropical tidbits euro run?

[tolakram]

No, 6z and 18z Euro behind paywall. I'm going to put the links back in, it's questionable, they allow some use. Some is ... some.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS Para stays east

[Aric Dunn]

No, 6z and 18z Euro behind paywall. I'm going to put the links back in, it's questionable, they allow some use. Some is ... some.

depending on which site.. something like up to 3 shareable images allowed..

[WeatherEmperor]

FWIW, the 18z Navgem shifted West and makes landfall in South Florida as a strong TS. The rest of the run goes up the spine of FL and exits the coast in NE Florida




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[NDG]

18z Euro, stronger, Cat 2 near Northern Bahamas, about the same track as 12z, maybe 10 miles further offshore from Treasure Coast compared to 12z.

[STRiZZY]

No, 6z and 18z Euro behind paywall. I'm going to put the links back in, it's questionable, they allow some use. Some is ... some.

That is correct per terms of use.

"2.2 You may elect to purchase a Personal Forecaster subscription. An active Personal Forecaster subscription entitles one (1) user (“Personal Forecaster”) to use the Site and its contents and services for the Personal Forecaster’s personal, non-commercial use. A Personal Forecaster may moderately re-publish some Site Content on personal, non-commercial websites or social media channels, provided that the Personal Forecaster retains (i) identification of the creator of the Content, (ii) any resident copyright notices, (iii) a notice that refers to these Terms and Conditions, (iv) a URL or hyperlink to the page on which the Content is available from WeatherOK (weathermodels.com), and (v) the Site logo. Abusive reposting, and sharing or re-publishing that qualify as content mirroring or automatically reposting is strongly prohibited. A Personal Forecaster shall not crop the Content or remove the Site logo from the Content. A Personal Forecaster may download, view, print, and copy the Content and other downloadable items displayed on the Site for personal use only, provided that the Personal Forecaster maintains all copyright and other notices contained therein."

[SFLcane]

00z models shift westward a bit. Let’s hope not a trend.

[chaser1]

FWIW, the 18z Navgem shifted West and makes landfall in South Florida as a strong TS. The rest of the run goes up the spine of FL and exits the coast in NE Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200731/a53aa3e64edb49921640c9337feb72f9.jpg

Was the NAVGEM faster or slower in the storm approaching S. Florida compared to prior runs?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

18z Euro seems a bit westward.

[url]ht%20tps://i.imgur.com/rfl1GSF.png[/url]

[url]ht%20tps://i.imgur.com/BLeUeNe.png[/url]

That is a pay site, as far as I can tell posting images is not allowed. Correct me if you know otherwise.

Hi, yes usage is allowed.

[OuterBanker]

00z models shift westward a bit. Let’s hope not a trend.

https://iili.io/d5gLlI.gif

From the looks of that eastern North Carolina is cluster *@&%$#@.

[WeatherEmperor]

FWIW, the 18z Navgem shifted West and makes landfall in South Florida as a strong TS. The rest of the run goes up the spine of FL and exits the coast in NE Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200731/a53aa3e64edb49921640c9337feb72f9.jpg

Was the NAVGEM faster or slower in the storm approaching S. Florida compared to prior runs?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It looks like it was a little bit faster but not by much

[MidnightRain]

FWIW, during Isaiases entire life the models have trended East and continually had to re-adjust to it going more west. A couple of days ago this wasn’t even suppose to enter the Caribbean, and here we are. I just wouldn’t be surprised to see another slight west adjustment, I’m almost expecting it.

[WeatherEmperor]

00z models shift westward a bit. Let’s hope not a trend.

[url]https://iili.io/d5gLlI.rl]

Hey Adrian,

It doesn't look like the TVCN consensus (grey line) has moved west. It almost looks like it stayed in the same place as before and looks to be right on top of the current NHC track. Do you think the NHC will shift the track West anyways?

[gatorcane]

00z models shift westward a bit. Let’s hope not a trend.

https://iili.io/d5gLlI.gif

Yes very slight west shift:

[AxaltaRacing24]

FWIW, during Isaiases entire life the models have trended East and continually had to re-adjust to it going more west. A couple of days ago this wasn’t even suppose to enter the Caribbean, and here we are. I just wouldn’t be surprised to see another slight west adjustment, I’m almost expecting it.

it honestly wouldn't surprise me if they shifted in either direction.

[SFLcane]

00z models shift westward a bit. Let’s hope not a trend.

[url]https://iili.io/d5gLlI.rl]

Hey Adrian,

It doesn't look like the TVCN consensus (grey line) has moved west. It almost looks like it stayed in the same place as before and looks to be right on top of the current NHC track. Do you think the NHC will shift the track West anyways?

Hey, not sure this is a tricky forecast but if you look most of the guidance is now on the left of the current NHC forecast track. Tonight’s runs will be telling.

[TheStormExpert]

00z models shift westward a bit. Let’s hope not a trend.

https://iili.io/d5gLlI.gif

Yep, now going over or west of Andros Island!

If this trend were to continue a Hurricane Watch would be needed by 5am tomorrow morning for Florida’s East Coast.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1289003072384045062