ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

They found the center! Surprisingly high pressure, though; it’s around 998 mbar.

[NDG]

A very well defined LLC found.

[Evil Jeremy]

.2N south of the 11pm position.

Clearly recon was caught off guard with the positioning.

[Hurricaneman]

https://twitter.com/marichris01/status/1289036649515622400

Holy cow, that’s major flooding, hope the death toll isn’t too high

[TheStormExpert]

May be nearing hurricane intensity?

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1289039268057415681

[supercane4867]

Looks like recon is flying through an intense convective burst.

[aspen]

A very well defined LLC found.

https://i.imgur.com/pz4669J.png

And there’s a massive hot tower firing above it. Well defined LLC, new bursts of convection, and hurricane-force FL winds all suggest this could be about to ramp up quickly.

[chaser1]

The data suggests an intensity of about 70 kt right now.

Sounds like a special advisory coming indeed. Just as important is that I'm assuming recon was able to close off a LLC. Better and more finite data that should go a long way to tweak model initializing and better update or verify model output.

[Evil Jeremy]

They found the center! Surprisingly high pressure, though; it’s around 998 mbar.

Will be interesting to see how much it drops, if it does, over the duration of this overnight mission.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like it’s found enough separation from Hispaniola to come to life

[TheDreamTraveler]

I figured that Isaias wouldn't be harmed too much by Hispaniola depending on how it tracked over the island, how fast it was moving at 23mph then 18mph and also the fact it was a broad storm and disorganized. Now if you told me we'd be seeing hurricane strength winds right after traveling over Hispaniola...yeah I didn't expect that. Hispaniola is a pretty tricky island to nail down since it doesn't always weaken storms like Fay 2008. It's usually the stronger storms that get ripped apart by it more if it tracks over the island.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a storm landfall on Hispaniola as a 50mph ts and come out as an 80mph hurricane before. Definitely a new one for me.

[ScottNAtlanta]

They found west winds, but it seems like it is not exactly stacked yet. Big differences between surface and flight level winds.
There were calm flight level winds and 40kt surface.

[supercane4867]

It's a bit early, but I think there's a decent chance that we won't have to pronounce Isaias again in 2026. I hope they replace it with a better name...

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like recon is flying through an intense convective burst.

https://i.imgur.com/DKQv6FG.gif

Literally right over the center, looks stacked quite well right now

[supercane4867]

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1140 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS ISAIAS IS A HURRICANE...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the
tropical storm has strengthened to a hurricane. The maximum winds
are estimated to be 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the central and southeastern Bahamas.

A special advisory will be issued shortly.

SUMMARY OF 1140 PM EDT...0340 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 72.1W
ABOUT 70 MI... 110 KM ESE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

[aspen]

I guess I’m staying up for another hour or so to watch the recon data come in. This flight has turned out to yield some very unexpected results.

[supercane4867]

Kinda surprised that the NHC went straight to 70kts

[Hurricaneman]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a storm landfall on Hispaniola as a 50mph ts and come out as an 80mph hurricane before. Definitely a new one for me.

It’s 2020, expect the unexpected and then some

[jaxfladude]

https://twitter.com/ZaritaFloridian/status/1289037560514256896

Crap was fearing something like this for the islands of the Caribbean and the Bahamas...