ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[KWT]

RECON showing 592 heights VS the models showing 591mb ridging north of the bahamas.

Doesn’t seem like much of a difference ???

1-2mbs can be quite significant in these close call situations. It probably buys an extra 3-6hrs NW motion rather than northerly and that may be the difference between a near miss and a landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

ICON is a good 75 miles SW of 12z at 48 hours..

[caneseddy]

ICON landfalls in Miami-Dade/Broward identical to the NAM.

[Powellrm]

If I’m not mistaken, the CMC tends to do a pretty good job of sniffing out these ridges that ultimately impact steering. CMC pointed towards a strong westerly shift before the rest, no? Very interesting.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS scrapes south of the 12z and slightly stronger. Around Fort Pierce. then up through cape canaveral

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is SW and stronger.. comes ashore near west plam.

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS is SW and stronger.. comes ashore near west plam.

In your opinion, what is the best estimate of intensity at landfall?

[ronjon]

GFS is SW and stronger.. comes ashore near west plam.

Let's see where the 18z Euro ends up. GFS only slightly shifted west from 12z.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is SW and stronger.. comes ashore near west plam.

In your opinion, what is the best estimate of intensity at landfall?

pressure look slike 994.. so at the very least the same intensity as it is right now.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is SW and stronger.. comes ashore near west plam.

Let's see where the 18z Euro ends up. GFS only slightly shifted west from 12z.

key thing with the GFS is it stronger and still SW. meaning ridging is stronger.. only half the data is in the 18z models as well.

[St0rmTh0r]

There have been numerous posts about the +NAO combined with models undergoing ridges and overdoing troughs this outcome was inevitable

[TheDreamTraveler]

There have been numerous posts about the +NAO combined with models undergoing ridges and overdoing troughs this outcome was inevitable

Yeah I never bought the deep trough the models were showing just due to the fact we've had insane ridging here for months. The eastern US has had one of its hottest July's on record and around where I live its barely rained for 2 months. It just seemed too perfect having a deep digging trough come in at just the right time to send this north before hitting Florida. Not saying florida getting hit is guaranteed but it's looking likely the center at least brushes the coast now.

[NDG]

GFS is SW and stronger.. comes ashore near west plam.

Let's see where the 18z Euro ends up. GFS only slightly shifted west from 12z.

key thing with the GFS is it stronger and still SW. meaning ridging is stronger.. only half the data is in the 18z models as well.

And the 18z GFS pretty much rides the coast or just offshore all the way up to Jacksonville, a westward trend in that area as well.

[northjaxpro]

Let's see where the 18z Euro ends up. GFS only slightly shifted west from 12z.

key thing with the GFS is it stronger and still SW. meaning ridging is stronger.. only half the data is in the 18z models as well.

And the 18z GFS pretty much rides the coast or just offshore all the way up to Jacksonville, a westward trend in that area as well.

Yeah I saw that NDG and that run is similar to the latest EURO, which takes Isaias a bit inland as it traverses up the coast on Sunday.

[SFLcane]

Waiting on 18z Euro...

[NDG]

Winds picking up at Nassau, this will be a nice HD webcam to watch as Isaias passes by.

https://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

[chaser1]

I know.... it's "the NAM. Last night's 0Z run had the storm ride just offshore from South to North. 6Z & 12Z today, bring the storm in around Boca, and exit the state near JAX. 18Z run this afternoon brings the storm ashore around Miami and exits near JAX. No sign of weakening ridge anytime soon per that model.

[JPmia]

Winds picking up at Nassau, this will be a nice HD webcam to watch as Isaias passes by.

https://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

The Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale cams might get interesting too tomorrow!

[gatorcane]

One thing I am pretty sure of, probably won’t end up far from where the Euro has it. The model is really good in this timeframe. Landfalls in Boca Raton / Deerfield it looks like.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Happy Hour GFS ensembles look slightly east, but look stronger. Looks like maybe 2 members miss Florida just to the east, and a few ride I-95 through the Space Coast.