ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1001]

031200 2316N 07618W 8441 01440 9958 +183 +183 125082 084 064 007 00

Wouldn't this make Isaias a cat 2?

[ColdMiser123]

Higher core temperature this pass compared to the previous pass, plus lower extrapolated pressure with a wobble NW.

[Javlin]

People... Eyewalls open a close all the time during this phase of a hurricane..

Eric, I would still like to know what is the deal with Izzy's evil twin to the east? I appears to have some fierce convection and seems to pulse up and down
in sync on IR with the twin to the west?

That's what I am wondering also?

[eastcoastFL]

People... Eyewalls open a close all the time during this phase of a hurricane..

Eric, I would still like to know what is the deal with Izzy's evil twin to the east? I appears to have some fierce convection and seems to pulse up and down
in sync on IR with the twin to the west?

That's what I am wondering also?

Ya the thing to the east looks almost identical to Isa On IR

[SconnieCane]

Didn't Matthew also have a big Siamese twin convective blob when it was in the Caribbean?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Eric, I would still like to know what is the deal with Izzy's evil twin to the east? I appears to have some fierce convection and seems to pulse up and down
in sync on IR with the twin to the west?

That's what I am wondering also?

Ya the thing to the east looks almost identical to Isa On IR

It looks very similar to the blob that hurricane Matthew had attached to it:

[Michele B]

How's this looking for NC now? Our local news is saying we won't get anything much. Coast will get 2"-4" rain and 40moh winds but that's all. That seems a little weak to me but maybe I've missed something today. Is it not riding up the coast now? I'm assuming it must be coming inland in FL if it's going to have such a low impact here. I trust you guys more than I do my local news. Sad I know, but you'd have to know these guys. Our favorite and most intelligent met was forced into early retirement so it screwed us around here when it comes to weather. So if I could get an update from you guys that would be wonderful.

I know what you mean.

Watching TWC now, and it sounds like Miami/Broward officials have been caught "off guard" for how much preparation they should have told people about.

Now when they speak, they all sound like they are panicking and saying, "Florida should expect some weather in the next day or so...."

What if it bombs and stays on this trajectory and "brushes" the coast as a 2 or 3? Lots of folks won't be ready for that, as just yesterday they were saying - "It's going north...."

So, I would say to NC that just keep your eye on it, and trust YOUR OWN instincts! It sounds like these mets are sort of confused with this storm right now.

At least that's what it sounds like to me.

[gfsperpendicular]

I wonder if the inflow to the blob will get cut off by Cuba? Maybe that'll get rid of it.

[chaser1]

I'm seeing an overall net motion that appears more north leaning. There's just no way do I see this storm track south of Andros.

northward????
http://tropicwatch.info/isais073120202223.jpg

The plots do appear WNW but if you step back and look at the entire envelope, there's something seemingly yanking everything else that's not an eye wall more to the north. Who knows, maybe it's not shear. Perhaps it's a Klingon War Bird using a tractor-beam.... All I know is that I don't see heavy convection west of center but I do see plenty to the north and east. Same applies to outflow.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I wonder if the inflow to the blob will get cut off by Cuba? Maybe that'll get rid of it.

I believe the blob is actually helping it some, in terms of feeding it moisture. However, I am not a pro MET, so maybe one of them can chime in.

[blp]

I don't know still looks WNW to me on the last few fixes. I don't know why they say NW.

[SapphireSea]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm3.GIF

This looks like its about to take a sharp NNW and N turn soon enough. Erratic LLC movement could be some decoupling due to Low to Mid shear, I think it gets very close to decapitated and reforms moving N. Else, I think it will be a whole other system in 12 hours.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The culprit for why the blob exists:

Low level WV


Mid level WV


Dry air is cutting the system in half. Interesting. If that continues it will start choking the storm off, I believe. We can all hope at least.

[Hurricane Mike]

There has to be some kind of weird undercutting/decoupling type thing going on. It's looking like it's almost stopping, almost similar to what Frances did. Storms love to slow down in this area, I wonder why?

[HurricaneEnzo]

Didn't the Euro have a run earlier where it was showing a decoupling? Wonder if this could be the beginning of that.

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[SapphireSea]

There has to be some kind of weird undercutting/decoupling type thing going on. It's looking like it's almost stopping, almost similar to what Frances did. Storms love to slow down in this area, I wonder why?

Often this is where steering layer collapses as the Bermuda High erodes with approaching waves from the midwest. Sometimes they aren't entirely strong enough to pull up the storm and it will meander some until a subsequent piece of energy picks it up in a progressive pattern, or the high rebuilds and some initial north movement begins with a curve back inland in a less progressive pattern.

[Hurricane Mike]

There has to be some kind of weird undercutting/decoupling type thing going on. It's looking like it's almost stopping, almost similar to what Frances did. Storms love to slow down in this area, I wonder why?

Often this is where steering layer collapses as the Bermuda High erodes with approaching waves from the midwest. Sometimes they aren't entirely strong enough to pull up the storm and it will meander some until a subsequent piece of energy picks it up in a progressive pattern, or the high rebuilds and some initial north movement begins with a curve back inland in a less progressive pattern.

Well if that's the case, there ain't no way this goes anywhere near Florida landfall.

[bubba hotep]

The "blob" is a stationary convective band that has formed on the edge of the primary envelope as a result of the flow from the larger wave packet.

[blp]

I think to clear Andros at this point they need a reformation. The radar does look like its opening up quite a bit. I am not sure if the radar is too far and distorting the profile.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I think to clear Andros at this point they need a reformation. The radar does look like its opening up quite a bit. I am not sure if the radar is too far and distorting the profile.

https://i.ibb.co/VvRt78m/Isiasis.png

It appears to be opening up for sure. Though it could be radar issues. IR presentation is funky to say the least.