ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4381 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:37 pm

wx98 wrote:Miss Piggy just passed through with a 986 extrap.

Doesn’t look legitimate to me. Something maybe off.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4382 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Mesoscale wind Analysis. I can support these winds at my locale as it is getting quite gusty:

https://i.postimg.cc/xdzKHrk8/Analysis-Wind.png


The majority of the windfield remains offshore. Morales says to expect sustain winds 45-60 gusts to 65. I might just wait up for it.


I think I may stay up as well but I am not sure of these winds will make it as far west as where I live, right at Miramar Parkway and I-75


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4383 Postby mutley » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:39 pm

CFLHurricane wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:


that blow up is crazy....it completely overtook the center of circulation, not sure I have ever seen that before so close to landfall


Rapid intensification???

I was wondering when someone might say those words.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4384 Postby jdjaguar » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:40 pm

Is there a chance the MLC stacks over the LLC?
Or is there too much shear?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4385 Postby Jr0d » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:41 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
wx98 wrote:Miss Piggy just passed through with a 986 extrap.

Doesn’t look legitimate to me. Something maybe off.


Something has been off with Miss Piggy's pressure since she took off. I noticed thatbwhen she was flying over the Keys.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4386 Postby Jr0d » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:43 pm

mutley wrote:
CFLHurricane wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
that blow up is crazy....it completely overtook the center of circulation, not sure I have ever seen that before so close to landfall


Rapid intensification???

I was wondering when someone might say those words.


If Isaias can establish some outflow, I think it is possible. Right know nope.

Amateur opinion, not a forecast
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4387 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:43 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
wx98 wrote:Miss Piggy just passed through with a 986 extrap.

Doesn’t look legitimate to me. Something maybe off.


AF305 did come in with an extrapolated pressure of 990.7 this pass which was a bit lower than the previous pass, but the NOAA3 plane looks like it might be having some kind of instrumentation difficulty with the quick oscillatory behavior in both pressure and FL wind measurements prior to the pass.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4388 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:43 pm

Pressure might be down to 986-987 mbar according to the latest recon pass. The LCC is also well within the expanding CDO.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4389 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:45 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Mesoscale wind Analysis. I can support these winds at my locale as it is getting quite gusty:

https://i.postimg.cc/xdzKHrk8/Analysis-Wind.png


The majority of the windfield remains offshore. Morales says to expect sustain winds 45-60 gusts to 65. I might just wait up for it.


I think I may stay up as well but I am not sure of these winds will make it as far west as where I live, right at Miramar Parkway and I-75


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It’s dead calm right now.. here is my location black dot.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4390 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:48 pm

Higher tide than usual here in Boca. Looking like some surge is piling in with that onshore wind.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4391 Postby hipshot » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:49 pm


WOW, what a change. This might get ugly folks!
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4392 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:51 pm

Not seeing any indication as of now that this is more than a 50 kt tropical storm.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4393 Postby MGC » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:52 pm

Isaias: Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated....Looks like the gulf stream is working its magic. Should regain hurricane intensity soon (maybe)....MGC
Last edited by MGC on Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4394 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:53 pm

Why is it stalling? Thankfully I don't think it can hit palm beach county now that it is east and stalling.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4396 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:55 pm

Might be the fastest large scale convective recovery I've seen in a very long time, even if only over the MLC; fascinating to watch. No guarantees the wind and vertical stacking similarly recover but definitely ominous to watch
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4397 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:55 pm

NDG wrote:The calm before the storm, literally calm, very quiet, no birds or the usual falcon around this afternoon.
The dust from this morning & yesterday is gone.

https://i.imgur.com/Dhp3V9M.jpg

That’s how it was here in South Florida yesterday along with very hot! Basically not a cloud in the sky.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4398 Postby boca » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:56 pm

SFLcane wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
The majority of the windfield remains offshore. Morales says to expect sustain winds 45-60 gusts to 65. I might just wait up for it.


I think I may stay up as well but I am not sure of these winds will make it as far west as where I live, right at Miramar Parkway and I-75


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It’s dead calm right now.. here is my location black dot.

https://iili.io/dYTE8b.jpg


I live in Coconut Creek the wind is 15 to 20 mph no way we get that wind here.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4399 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:56 pm

Looks like right now Isaias is sitting...constant location, constant pressure, constant winds. Still has a bit of work to do to get back to a hurricane imo.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4400 Postby xironman » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:58 pm

wx98 wrote:Not seeing any indication as of now that this is more than a 50 kt tropical storm.

L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 61kts (70.2mph)
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