ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4521 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:44 pm

Has this moved at all?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4522 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:45 pm

GCANE wrote:Getting more definitive circulation.
These mesovorts keep popping up.
The ramp up in outflow will help gel this.
I would guess the anticyclone is slightly north.

https://i.imgur.com/YPH8r9j.png

That’s the blown away mid-level circulation. It’s not getting more definitive while it’s leaving the LLC behind near Bimini.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4523 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:45 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Has this moved at all?

LLC hasn’t moved in a few hours now...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4524 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:48 pm

Pressure must be dropping, feed appears to be intensifying.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4525 Postby TallyTracker » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:49 pm

I see a pulsing Tropical Storm. I don’t think it will become a hurricane again until it moves more with the shear along the Gulf Stream. Isaias will struggle to even maintain intensity as long as it can’t maintain steady convection over the LLC and keep the LLC aligned with the MLC.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4526 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:51 pm

I’m wondering if this might be starting a relocation in the convection near the MLC or it could just be too much watching radar
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4527 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:51 pm

GCANE wrote:Pressure must be dropping, feed appears to be intensifying.

https://i.imgur.com/dK6otbW.png

That is nowhere near the LLC that the planes have been flying through. Pressure is steady or slightly rising there.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4528 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:52 pm

wx98 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Getting more definitive circulation.
These mesovorts keep popping up.
The ramp up in outflow will help gel this.
I would guess the anticyclone is slightly north.

https://i.imgur.com/YPH8r9j.png

That’s the blown away mid-level circulation. It’s not getting more definitive while it’s leaving the LLC behind near Bimini.


High helicity towers tend to push MLCs to the surface due to conservation of angular momentum.
That is what those mesovorts are doing.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4529 Postby boca » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:52 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Hasn’t rained, haven’t heard wind and I’m in Coconut Creek right off the turnpike.


Then again I’m inside so.. :cheesy:


I’m in the township we are neighbors.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4530 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:53 pm

HH's keeping busy, another AF mission took off from Keesler.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4531 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:54 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:I’m wondering if this might be starting a relocation in the convection near the MLC or it could just be too much watching radar

I’m sure it is possible. That could explain the current LLC stalling and pressure rising. The next recon plane needs to fly toward to MLC to see what it can find. However, if you trust the HRRR then another blowup (and another MLC) will form over the current LLC later tonight. As was said earlier, this is a mess...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4532 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:56 pm

GCANE wrote:
wx98 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Getting more definitive circulation.
These mesovorts keep popping up.
The ramp up in outflow will help gel this.
I would guess the anticyclone is slightly north.

https://i.imgur.com/YPH8r9j.png

That’s the blown away mid-level circulation. It’s not getting more definitive while it’s leaving the LLC behind near Bimini.


High helicity towers tend to push MLCs to the surface due to conservation of angular momentum.
That is what those mesovorts are doing.

If that does happen and the LLC reforms over there, the chances of a FL landfall go way down in my opinion.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4533 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:56 pm

NHC nudges track slightly west with landfall (I think)...as a hurricane

update...yep barely on the coast

24H 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON COAST
Last edited by CronkPSU on Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4534 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:56 pm

NHC still calling it NW at 9mph.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4535 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:57 pm

wx98 wrote:
GCANE wrote:
wx98 wrote:That’s the blown away mid-level circulation. It’s not getting more definitive while it’s leaving the LLC behind near Bimini.


High helicity towers tend to push MLCs to the surface due to conservation of angular momentum.
That is what those mesovorts are doing.

If that does happen and the LLC reforms over there, the chances of a FL landfall go way down in my opinion.


Yup, agree.
Need to see how this plays out.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4536 Postby Ken711 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:57 pm

11:00 PM NHC Discussion:

The new NHC track forecast was nudged slightly closer to the Florida east-central coast through 24 hours, with no significant changes made to the previous forecast after 36 hours.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4537 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:59 pm

GCANE wrote:
wx98 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Getting more definitive circulation.
These mesovorts keep popping up.
The ramp up in outflow will help gel this.
I would guess the anticyclone is slightly north.

https://i.imgur.com/YPH8r9j.png

That’s the blown away mid-level circulation. It’s not getting more definitive while it’s leaving the LLC behind near Bimini.


High helicity towers tend to push MLCs to the surface due to conservation of angular momentum.
That is what those mesovorts are doing.

I’m wondering if that’s what the 0zHMON was picking up last night having this over Freeport while every other model was with the current circulation which could reform in the convection
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4538 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:00 pm

Ken711 wrote:11:00 PM NHC Discussion:

The new NHC track forecast was nudged slightly closer to the Florida east-central coast through 24 hours, with no significant changes made to the previous forecast after 36 hours.


24H 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON COAST
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4539 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:00 pm

Complex situation. The last recon flight did show a small pressure drop when flying over that mid level center.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4540 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:01 pm

GCANE wrote:
wx98 wrote:
GCANE wrote:
High helicity towers tend to push MLCs to the surface due to conservation of angular momentum.
That is what those mesovorts are doing.

If that does happen and the LLC reforms over there, the chances of a FL landfall go way down in my opinion.

Yup, agree.
Need to see how this plays out.

In the disco, Pasch seems to imply that they don’t know for sure at this point whether the LLC or the MLC is the dominant circulation. They went with LLC for position. But they said it is moving, which may be the case, but then why did the AF plane just do 5-6 Center drops all in the same place?
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