2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

EPS support has dropped off for that next TW (not the 10/10) but it looks like there's some enthusiasm for another one behind it. That one will be exiting by the middle of the month, which if I am not mistaken is when things are expected to pick back up again. I'd watch for any more model support for this one.

[Hurricaneman]

EPS support has dropped off for that next TW (not the 10/10) but it looks like there's some enthusiasm for another one behind it. That one will be exiting by the middle of the month, which if I am not mistaken is when things are expected to pick back up again. I'd watch for any more model support for this one.

https://i.ibb.co/0yCpPb2/wavenew.png
https://i.ibb.co/WKG78b7/wavenew2.png

The GFS is jumping on that wave too, may need to watch that one as conditions basin wide should be super favorable

[Dean4Storms]

12z ECM EPS with zilch chance of TS Development in the entire Atl. Basin thru the 17th.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z ECM EPS with zilch chance of TS Development in the entire Atl. Basin thru the 17th.

I think it's quite possible that cyclogenesis may occur with a system sooner than expected. We could very well only have a few days notice from the models. I do not believe that the Atlantic will stay quiet much longer. I think part of the problem is that current unfavorable conditions are in place and the models are having are difficult time determining when they will become more favorable. Today, I noticed that the sun angle has changed quite a bit at my location and the sky is beginning to look more like autumn. The peak is getting closer.

[toad strangler]

12z ECM EPS with zilch chance of TS Development in the entire Atl. Basin thru the 17th.

I think it's quite possible that cyclogenesis may occur with a system sooner than expected. We could very well only have a few days notice from the models. I do not believe that the Atlantic will stay quiet much longer. I think part of the problem is that current unfavorable conditions are in place and the models are having are difficult time determining when they will become more favorable. Today, I noticed that the sun angle has changed quite a bit at my location and the sky is beginning to look more like autumn. The peak is getting closer.

Yep, we are just about at the foothills of the steep climb to peak season 35 days from now. GFS has been quiet since it lost that SW Caribbean ghost a few days ago and the Euro has been quiet as a church mouse. Enjoy ..

[crownweather]

12z ECM EPS with zilch chance of TS Development in the entire Atl. Basin thru the 17th.

I think it's quite possible that cyclogenesis may occur with a system sooner than expected. We could very well only have a few days notice from the models. I do not believe that the Atlantic will stay quiet much longer. I think part of the problem is that current unfavorable conditions are in place and the models are having are difficult time determining when they will become more favorable. Today, I noticed that the sun angle has changed quite a bit at my location and the sky is beginning to look more like autumn. The peak is getting closer.

Yep, we are just about at the foothills of the steep climb to peak season 35 days from now. GFS has been quiet since it lost that SW Caribbean ghost a few days ago and the Euro has been quiet as a church mouse. Enjoy ..

Yep, I'm trying to take advantage of the brief quiet period to finish the painting and renovations we're doing on our home. I figure I might have a week or so before things start to pick up again and I become too busy to work on the house.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is very reluctant to reduce the strong shear over the Caribbean and really a lot of the MDR for that matter. Also dry mid-level air is evident in the model fields. Euro is singing crickets. Now over in the EPAC though, the models are really lighting up. If you want to track something you will have plenty track in the EPAC. Atlantic continues to be as dead as it can be for August.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The GFS is very reluctant to reduce the strong shear over the Caribbean and really a lot of the MDR for that matter. Also dry mid-level air is evident in the model fields. Euro is singing crickets. Now over in the EPAC though, the models are really lighting up. If you want to track something you will have plenty track in the EPAC. Atlantic continues to be as dead as it can be for August.

give it 2 weeks, or possibly less.

[toad strangler]

The GFS is very reluctant to reduce the strong shear over the Caribbean and really a lot of the MDR for that matter. Also dry mid-level air is evident in the model fields. Euro is singing crickets. Now over in the EPAC though, the models are really lighting up. If you want to track something you will have plenty track in the EPAC. Atlantic continues to be as dead as it can be for August.

And this has been forecasted for the next 10-14 days. No surprise.

[cycloneye]

The GFS is very reluctant to reduce the strong shear over the Caribbean and really a lot of the MDR for that matter. Also dry mid-level air is evident in the model fields. Euro is singing crickets. Now over in the EPAC though, the models are really lighting up. If you want to track something you will have plenty track in the EPAC. Atlantic continues to be as dead as it can be for August.

Here is the next two week forecast from CSU that says it all.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-0805.pdf

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS is very reluctant to reduce the strong shear over the Caribbean and really a lot of the MDR for that matter. Also dry mid-level air is evident in the model fields. Euro is singing crickets. Now over in the EPAC though, the models are really lighting up. If you want to track something you will have plenty track in the EPAC. Atlantic continues to be as dead as it can be for August.

The shear part is wrong as shear in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic south of 20ºN has been running well below average (in 4th place) and will likely continue to do so. Of course the mid-level dry air I would assume is associated with the SAL surges. Besides I'm still skeptical of anything too significant developing in the East Pacific as besides Douglas the basin has been very uneventful.

[gatorcane]

Thanks Cycloneye. Will be interesting to see how many storms and how strong they get in the EPAC the next couple of weeks. A quieter period for the Atlantic may be expected by the experts but not sure it was expected the EPAC would go hyperactive potentially in August. It didn’t look like it did in 2005 or 2010 which are analog years I see many are still comparing this year to:

[TheStormExpert]

Those storms look fairly weak for East Pacific standards.

Usually you’re more bullish on the Atlantic than this gatorcane, everyone’s had a rough year and I can feel your stress.

[toad strangler]

The GFS is very reluctant to reduce the strong shear over the Caribbean and really a lot of the MDR for that matter. Also dry mid-level air is evident in the model fields. Euro is singing crickets. Now over in the EPAC though, the models are really lighting up. If you want to track something you will have plenty track in the EPAC. Atlantic continues to be as dead as it can be for August.

Here is the next two week forecast from CSU that says it all.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-0805.pdf

This is the highlight of the entire forecast. Enjoy the next 10-14 days.

"However, we note that the CFS also predicts extremely weak
vertical wind shear beginning around August 20, at about the time the Atlantic hurricane
season climatologically becomes much more active."

[Astromanía]

You have to admit the next days will be EPAC time regardless of the intensity of the storms, its something at least compared to this quiet period on the Atlantic, we can enjoy some fish systems in this area until the Atlantic comes alive again, unless you only care about systems that affect people, in that case came back in two weeks

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS looks like it wants to spin up a little something something between the islands and FL in the 10 day plus range. Nothing major but definitely an area of vorticity. Big things have small beginnings.


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[Hurricaneman]

With the rising motion in the Atlantic after day 7 it surprises me that the model develops nothing on the GFS, might be a case that the model is not correctly resolving rising motion to what’s out there on the model, have to think the GFS is out to lunch and may not show anything until formation is nearly happening

[TheStormExpert]

With the rising motion in the Atlantic after day 7 it surprises me that the model develops nothing on the GFS, might be a case that the model is not correctly resolving rising motion to what’s out there on the model, have to think the GFS is out to lunch and may not show anything until formation is nearly happening

Models have been a joke this season so far. They’ve struggled to detect several systems including Hurricane Hanna in the Gulf not to mention there have been crazy swings. Now if we get to late-August and this is still the case then maybe that’ll be something worth mentioning.

[cycloneye]

Finnally, GFS has something developing on MDR after the 20th.

[SFLcane]

Finnally, GFS has something developing on MDR after the 20th.

https://i.imgur.com/Hp3hnSO.gif

Hi Luis, It's too far out to trust but that would be around the time you might expect to see the flip switch.