ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

I think we had our only real lull we're going to get between Cristobal and Dolly in mid-June honestly

[Aric Dunn]

The one tower rotating on the east side is kind humerous.

[Kazmit]

Not too promising of a future ahead of 11 but nevertheless this will be the second MDR TS this year. By this date 2017 also had 2 MDR storms.

[Ivanhater]

I had to remove a few posts not related to this storm.

While I understand opinions on rooting for storms or not, it has nothing to do with this system.

Carry on...

[aspen]

Once TD11 becomes Josephine, it’ll be the earliest 10th named storm on record; Jose ‘05 was named on August 22nd.

I’m intrigued to see what will happen to Josephine or its remnants once it reaches the west-central Atlantic pocket of >29 C SSTs between the Carolinas and Bermuda. That appears to be where it’s heading, and the CMC did show a bit of re-intensification in today’s 00z run.

[Visioen]

Once TD11 becomes Josephine, it’ll be the earliest 10th named storm on record; Jose ‘05 was named on August 22nd.

I’m intrigued to see what will happen to Josephine or its remnants once it reaches the east-central Atlantic pocket of >29 C SSTs between the Carolinas and Bermuda. That appears to be where it’s heading, and the CMC did show a bit of re-intensification in today’s 00z run.

You mean west-central Atlantic? Otherwise I'm confused.

[aspen]

Once TD11 becomes Josephine, it’ll be the earliest 10th named storm on record; Jose ‘05 was named on August 22nd.

I’m intrigued to see what will happen to Josephine or its remnants once it reaches the east-central Atlantic pocket of >29 C SSTs between the Carolinas and Bermuda. That appears to be where it’s heading, and the CMC did show a bit of re-intensification in today’s 00z run.

You mean west-central Atlantic? Otherwise I'm confused.

Yeah..I goofed. I did mean west-central. SSTs in that region are very high, second only to the Gulf.

[captainbarbossa19]

Once TD11 becomes Josephine, it’ll be the earliest 10th named storm on record; Jose ‘05 was named on August 22nd.

I’m intrigued to see what will happen to Josephine or its remnants once it reaches the east-central Atlantic pocket of >29 C SSTs between the Carolinas and Bermuda. That appears to be where it’s heading, and the CMC did show a bit of re-intensification in today’s 00z run.

You mean west-central Atlantic? Otherwise I'm confused.

Yeah..I goofed. I did mean west-central. SSTs in that region are very high, second only to the Gulf.

Yes, since the MJO is expected to shift to a more favorable phase for the Atlantic relatively soon, I would watch this system even if it breaks back down into a wave. We know from past storms that the story is not always over after degeneration into a wave.

[Hurricaneman]

You mean west-central Atlantic? Otherwise I'm confused.

Yeah..I goofed. I did mean west-central. SSTs in that region are very high, second only to the Gulf.

Yes, since the MJO is expected to shift to a more favorable phase for the Atlantic relatively soon, I would watch this system even if it breaks back down into a wave. We know from past storms that the story is not always over after degeneration into a wave.

Irene in 2005, I can argue Andrew in 1992 and one called td10 in 2005 split in two pieces, the southern part of TD10 became Jose and the northern part became the most costly hurricane in history so in no way is this system done after degeneration but could redevelop on its way out

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Yeah..I goofed. I did mean west-central. SSTs in that region are very high, second only to the Gulf.

Yes, since the MJO is expected to shift to a more favorable phase for the Atlantic relatively soon, I would watch this system even if it breaks back down into a wave. We know from past storms that the story is not always over after degeneration into a wave.

Irene in 2005, I can argue Andrew in 1992 and one called td10 in 2005 split in two pieces, the southern part of TD10 became Jose and the northern part became the most costly hurricane in history so in no way is this system done after degeneration but could redevelop on its way out

We had a great example just 3 years ago with Harvey - was a weak TS in the MDR, devolved back into a wave, and then tied Katrina as the most costly hurricane ever. Then again, something like that is more of the exception than the norm, but worth noting regardless.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is tucking under that big blow up now. it is just on the north side of the convection.

[BYG Jacob]

suRPResSEd KElVIn WAvE

[Nimbus]

Perhaps the mid level spin is northwest of the LLC?
LLC was down near 12.3N

[gatorcane]

I wouldn’t be surprised if this wave may find some pretty good conditions once it starts to recurve over the SW Atlantic and gets out of the MDR. Could spin up into a TS in the next few days as well before it hits a wall of shear near the Lesser Antilles. Water temps are running above normal in that region around Bermuda also, something to keep an eye on.

[Aric Dunn]

I wouldn’t be surprised if this wave may find some pretty good conditions once it starts to recurve over the SW Atlantic and gets out of the MDR. Could spin up into a TS in the next few days as well before it hits a wall of shear near the Lesser Antilles. Water temps are running above normal in that region around Bermuda also, something to keep an eye on.

Wave ?

[Kazmit]

I wouldn’t be surprised if this wave may find some pretty good conditions once it starts to recurve over the SW Atlantic and gets out of the MDR. Could spin up into a TS in the next few days as well before it hits a wall of shear near the Lesser Antilles. Water temps are running above normal in that region around Bermuda also, something to keep an eye on.

Yes, we need to keep an eye on this, especially since the water here is bath-like. Seems like we get slammed every year despite how small we are.

[cycloneye]

AL, 11, 2020081200, , BEST, 0, 119N, 409W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M

At 0000 UTC, 12 August 2020, TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (AL11) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 11.9°N and 40.9°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 13 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.

[TheStormExpert]

TD #11 looking quite ragged tonight.

[Ubuntwo]

Closed + well defined circ. Pass missed the hefty convection though.

[Aric Dunn]

TD #11 looking quite ragged tonight.

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/goes16_vis-swir_11L_202008112025.gif

In what way ? the center is not to the NW where the decaying MLC is from the old blown off convection..

it under the CDO on the right side. looks quite well compared to earlier..