Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 97L)

[Cpv17]

large surge of moisture and convection quickly being pulled in from the south.. curvature continues to increase with convection start to really expand..

cant believe this is not an invest yet...

https://i.ibb.co/NCvDb8K/LABELS-19700101-000000-14.gif

The NHC is fairly conservative. I’m not at all surprised it’s not an invest yet.

[StruThiO]

[sma10]

large surge of moisture and convection quickly being pulled in from the south.. curvature continues to increase with convection start to really expand..

cant believe this is not an invest yet...

https://i.ibb.co/NCvDb8K/LABELS-19700101-000000-14.gif

I could see this getting bumped up to 60-70% in 5 days for the 8pm TWO.

They are so darn conservative usually, so normally I wouldn't agree. However, they're between a rock and a hard place with this one because it's moving so fast that if it develops into a TC they would need warnings in a hurry

[tropicwatch]

Should see an invest # pretty soon.
Anybody else having issues some of the GOES imagery sites ie https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=taw
mainly animated gifs?

[EquusStorm]

Convection sure built fast on that one. Wasn't even paying attention to it until this morning but it's making its presence known for sure

[psyclone]

We could be in trouble in the NE GOM in about a week if 12z ICON correct.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020081612&fh=240

certainly not impossible. The latest WPC output is very wet over the NE gulf region with the bulk of that belonging to day 6/7. It is a trend worth monitoring as the timeline reels in.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

[Cpv17]

We could be in trouble in the NE GOM in about a week if 12z ICON correct.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020081612&fh=240

certainly not impossible. The latest WPC output is very wet over the NE gulf region with the bulk of that belonging to day 6/7. It is a trend worth monitoring as the timeline reels in.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

Latest 8-14 day CPC precipitation forecast has an increased risk for precipitation along the Texas Gulf coast.

[Steve H.]

Yes, this caught me off guard as well. It's Sunday and not really looking that much. Definitely some good tumbleweed going there and this should be an invest soon if the convection continues to build. Island's need to pay attention.

[psyclone]

We could be in trouble in the NE GOM in about a week if 12z ICON correct.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020081612&fh=240

certainly not impossible. The latest WPC output is very wet over the NE gulf region with the bulk of that belonging to day 6/7. It is a trend worth monitoring as the timeline reels in.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

Latest 8-14 day CPC precipitation forecast has an increased risk for precipitation along the Texas Gulf coast.

It does but not by much. and the 6-10 day is actually below normal in the region. It's definitely a wait and see situation.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[aspen]

NAVGEM is now showing development as well, and has this become a hurricane in the Gulf at the end of its most recent run. EPS, CMC, ICON, and NAVGEM all show a TC, and the ECMWF shows a strong wave, but it’ll probably jump on the development bandwagon soon enough.

[St0rmTh0r]

Will this wave soon to be TD meet the MJO as it enters Caribbean?

[St0rmTh0r]

NAVGEM is now showing development as well, and has this become a hurricane in the Gulf at the end of its most recent run. EPS, CMC, ICON, and NAVGEM all show a TC, and the ECMWF shows a strong wave, but it’ll probably jump on the development bandwagon soon enough.

Hurricane in the Gulf in late August talk about groundhog day!

[northjaxpro]

Yes everyone this particular feature really has my serious attention. I have bad vibes with this system.

[Aric Dunn]

Geez look how quickly this is organizing...

barbados is going to have a little surprise tomorrow..

[psyclone]

deep convection building over vigorous rotation in the deep tropics deep into August. Legit potential here.

[StruThiO]

[aspen]

Geez look how quickly this is organizing...

barbados is going to have a little surprise tomorrow..

https://i.ibb.co/dPCtxKM/LABELS-19700101-000000-15.gif

Persistence is key for any AOI, including this wave. That convection, which quite good, would need to stick around and/or quickly replenish itself for a TD to develop in 24-48 hours. I do think this could develop sooner than expected just based off its organizational trends today.

[cycloneye]

Will be a invest shortly.

[Aric Dunn]

Will be a invest shortly.

did you see that somewhere ?

[drezee]

Will be a invest shortly.

It should, vorticity is quite evident. Needs to develop before the islands or it will likely have to wait until the W Caribbean.