Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[cycloneye]

Landfall north of Veracruz, Mexico as a cat 2.

[Hurricaneman]

Track wise on the models

Euro 12z: through the NE Lesser Antilles north of Puerto Rico

0z GFS Caribbean cruiser into the BOC/Mexico

0z ICON: Through Hispaniola into Cuba

18z NAVGEM: No Development

12z Canadian: through Hispaniola through Cuba and into Lake Charles Louisiana


Though it’s far away the track will most likely change and so will the intensity

[EquusStorm]

Wow. When even the GFS shows an Atlantic hurricane this year, you know stuff's about to get wild.

[DestinHurricane]

I'm thinking this is the one to watch. More so than 97L.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm thinking this is the one to watch. More so than 97L.

True, but both need to be watched carefully. Also does this go north of the Greater Antilles or does it go south like the GFS

[SouthFLTropics]

No CMC output tonight on Tidbits? Hmmm...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ubuntwo]

No CMC output tonight on Tidbits? Hmmm...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not on pivotal either.

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic
well to the south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers. The wave is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
during the next few days, and environmental conditions are expected
to become more conducive for the development of a tropical
depression during the middle-to-latter part of this week while the
system moves across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[USTropics]

No CMC output tonight on Tidbits? Hmmm...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not on pivotal either.

There was a delay on the data, it's running now.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z Euro has vorticity approaching the Florida Straights on Monday, August 24th. Any South Florida native should instantly recognize that date and the signifigance of its place in storm history.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC going for the double whammy in the GOM again but this time takes the first storm farther east around Pensacola.

Buckle up boys and girls and put a pot of coffee on. It’s going to be a long week ahead.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[USTropics]

00z CMC run:

[Brent]

End of the Euro recurving into Florida

Warning 10 days out

[blp]

UKM following the Euro.



Steering is the same as well. This one is going west.

[jaxfladude]

00z CMC run:
https://i.ibb.co/52BfvH5/gem-z850-vort-watl-fh90-240.gif

Better be the classic too far into future, this is where if you live there, you want it forecast to hit you this far in advance than in the 5 day track right?

[USTropics]

00z CMC run:
https://i.ibb.co/52BfvH5/gem-z850-vort-watl-fh90-240.gif

Better be the classic too far into future, this is where if you live there, you want it forecast to hit you this far in advance than in the 5 day track right?

Yea there are a lot of future synoptic setups that are still to be determined (like what happens with 97L could have implications on track). It's increasing likely there will be impacts on the Caribbean islands as well, which will also have implications on track/intensity. The pattern is ominous though, a likely westward track with improving conditions should this reach the GOM.

[AxaltaRacing24]

00z CMC run:
https://i.ibb.co/52BfvH5/gem-z850-vort-watl-fh90-240.gif

Better be the classic too far into future, this is where if you live there, you want it forecast to hit you this far in advance than in the 5 day track right?

i always hope that's the case. i got nervous for irma when the gfs and cmc kept slamming new england and avoiding florida 10-6 days out.

[USTropics]

High-res ECMWF 00z run:

[AxaltaRacing24]

That CMC run is terrifying.

i'm gonna just pretend i didn't even see that.

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF ensembles: