ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

I'm more worried about Y

I’m equally concerned about both. Also equally skeptical until they form.

Concerned is a loosely used word. No real concerns until one, or the other (maybe both) form into something of significance. Again, for anyone to say they are concerned for one over the other at this point is foolish; PERIOD!

Not really. I own property in different locales. For my Destin area properties, i'm more concerned about 97L. For my South Florida property I am more concerned about 98L.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm more worried about Y

I’m equally concerned about both. Also equally skeptical until they form.

Concerned is a loosely used word. No real concerns until one, or the other (maybe both) form into something of significance. Again, for anyone to say they are concerned for one over the other at this point is foolish; PERIOD!

I guess my concern is more general right now as the basin is beginning to light up and conditions are forecast to only become more favorable. Mix that with limited options for safely evacuating this year and it can get a bit concerning.

[hurricanehunter69]

Check out the convectively robust wave south of 97L and moving in tandem with it. This wave should merge with 97L in the central Carib. This is where I expect 97L to really take off. And then of course the NW Carib awaits. Whoever on the gulf coast gets this storm.....good luck. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Check out the convectively robust wave south of 97L and moving in tandem with it. This wave should merge with 97L in the central Carib. This is where I expect 97L to really take off. And then of course the NW Carib awaits. Whoever on the gulf coast gets this storm.....good luck. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

Yeah, Levi Cowan/Tropical Tidbits mentioned that in his video that the smaller wave to the invest's south can serve as the fuel for TCG near Jamaica and further west. Will be interesting (and a bit nerve-wracking) to watch the two move closer together in the meantime.

Regardless, 97L needs to be watched for all interests in or around the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. The Atlantic has proven that anything spinning out in it has the chance of overperforming expectations, so I'm hesitant to say anything about counting it out in the days to come.

[DocB]

Greetings All....

Been following the board for over a decade. First time asking a question. It’s really a question about timing...

I’m leaving Ft Lauderdale on the 22nd to drive to Arizona. Plan is to spend the night in Pensacola on 22nd, San Antonio on the 23rd and then Albuquerque on the 24th.

Do you think that schedule will keep me sufficiently ahead of 97L if it develops into anything significant in the Gulf or do I risk hitting evacuation traffic?

I could alternatively take a more northerly route but would add a day to the trip.

Thanks In advance for your input!

[hipshot]

Greetings All....

Been following the board for over a decade. First time asking a question. It’s really a question about timing...

I’m leaving Ft Lauderdale on the 22nd to drive to Arizona. Plan is to spend the night in Pensacola on 22nd, San Antonio on the 23rd and then Albuquerque on the 24th.

Do you think that schedule will keep me sufficiently ahead of 97L if it develops into anything significant in the Gulf or do I risk hitting evacuation traffic?

I could alternatively take a more northerly route but would add a day to the trip.

Thanks In advance for your input!

It may be a little too early to tell from what I read here. But...man, that is some serious miles between Pensacola and San Antonio and then Albuquerque. I've driven from Dallas to Santa Fe and at my age, it's a killer.

[DestinHurricane]

Greetings All....

Been following the board for over a decade. First time asking a question. It’s really a question about timing...

I’m leaving Ft Lauderdale on the 22nd to drive to Arizona. Plan is to spend the night in Pensacola on 22nd, San Antonio on the 23rd and then Albuquerque on the 24th.

Do you think that schedule will keep me sufficiently ahead of 97L if it develops into anything significant in the Gulf or do I risk hitting evacuation traffic?

I could alternatively take a more northerly route but would add a day to the trip.

Thanks In advance for your input!

If 98L gets ugly you could have lot of traffic getting out of Ft Laud. 2 threats currently.

[DocB]

Yeah, less than ideal timing. But I work in emergency medicine and I have to be in Arizona by the 26th. I suppose I could just leave a day early and drive to Chattanooga. I have family there and could spend the night and then head west from there.

On a lighter note, it must be really boring being a meteorologist in AZ....

“For the remainder of the year we are forecasting sunny and warm. Next year as well”

I’m a coastal boy. I will miss my storms. But will continue to track from the Mojave.

[Steve]

Greetings All....

Been following the board for over a decade. First time asking a question. It’s really a question about timing...

I’m leaving Ft Lauderdale on the 22nd to drive to Arizona. Plan is to spend the night in Pensacola on 22nd, San Antonio on the 23rd and then Albuquerque on the 24th.

Do you think that schedule will keep me sufficiently ahead of 97L if it develops into anything significant in the Gulf or do I risk hitting evacuation traffic?

I could alternatively take a more northerly route but would add a day to the trip.

Thanks In advance for your input!

Your timing is fine. ICON and GFS have 97L around Honduras the afternoon on the 21st. There are several days between that and any potential US landfalls. Wear sunscreen.

[Steve]

Here you go DocB. GFS on the 23rd and still by Belize. Solid 1000mb there though for sure. That's stronger than I think it has ever depicted in the WCAR.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=126

[GCANE]

Here we go.
High helicity hot tower near the top of the wave axis.
13.5N 64.5W

[GCANE]

Anticyclone to the south, strong shear gradient in place.
Appears tower is shear induced.

[GCANE]

UL Winds in place to vent this.

[GCANE]

IR Satellite indicating a closed circulation, likely just above the boundary layer.
Towers will likely get this down to the surface quickly.
New towers appear to have a CCW rotation.

[GCANE]

Very high rain rate on the mature tower.
New tower to the west is rotating counter-clock wise.
Poleward outflow channel.
Big moisture infeed from convective debris that is firing to the SW.

This is going to town quickly.

[GCANE]

One of the fastest warm-core developments I have seen.
Obviously this will get a convection anticyclone directly overhead.
Big moisture feed ahead of it.
A rapid pressure drop will likely occur during the day.
By the end of the day, this could tap into EPAC High TPW air thru Panama.

[GCANE]

The new tower continues to strengthen and is right on top of the boundary layer CoC.

[catskillfire51]

The new tower continues to strengthen and is right on top of the boundary layer CoC.

https://i.imgur.com/JgSncBW.png

Does any of the models have it getting organized that quickly? I wasn’t seeing any till Saturday/Sunday

[GCANE]

The new tower continues to strengthen and is right on top of the boundary layer CoC.

https://i.imgur.com/JgSncBW.png

Does any of the models have it getting organized that quickly? I wasn’t seeing any till Saturday/Sunday

No doubt this is the biggest fail yet for GFS.
Same all the way thru 700mb.
They are not even putting in the IR Sat data.

[Aric Dunn]

And boom we have a circulation forming.. very clear on satellite. right under that convection.. man models suck this year.. why can they hang onto anything..

of course, there will be eastern carrib development.. its 2020.. lol