ATL: LAURA - Models

[Blown Away]

Let’s see if the 00z GFS plows in to the GA as a wave and 00z Euro stays a wave all the way to New Orleans again...

[SFLcane]

00z Icon rolling...

[NDG]

The HWRF tends to be over bullish. I’m not buying it until a well developed storm forms.

Which storms has it over done ? I can’t remember how models performed a year ago unless it was something major. But I don’t think it went too crazy with Isaias or Hanna. Did it blow up any early storms?

It took both Gonzalo and Isaias to or near major intensity.

The big difference here is that is doing so in its long range with 98L, with Gonzalo is was being too aggressive right away.
With Isaias, all the global models were too aggressive while it was just an invest in their 5-10 day range before seeing the dry air and shear near the Bahamas then they started backing down and eventually the HWRF did so too.

[Blown Away]

Hopefully the recent N trend continues and 98L just makes traditional turn offshore and OTS...

[SFLcane]

Hopefully the recent N trend continues and 98L just makes traditional turn offshore and OTS...

Don’t bank on it.. substantial ridging in place to FL.

[NDG]

The ICON is trending southward as it also starting to catch the strong Bermuda ridge developing to its north.

[stormlover2013]

97L for icon strong tropical storm, 98l hurricane looks like maybe Florida straights on 144 hours

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hopefully the recent N trend continues and 98L just makes traditional turn offshore and OTS...

i still don't like how the models are strengthening the ridge in a range of under 80 hours. i feel like the farthest north solution would at least be a close call for at least the Bahamas at this point.

[NDG]

The ICON is also showing that TUTT getting the heck out of the way of 98L just like the Euro and latest GFS show.

[caneseddy]

WxMan57 did say earlier today that if it went north of the islands it could be a hurricane threatening South Florida and so far the models are trending that way

[eastcoastFL]

At 102hrs ICON is just north of PR. A little south from last run and pretty close to the hurricane models at this same point. Might start to see some agreement in track soon.

[toad strangler]

At 102hrs ICON is just north of PR. A little south from last run and pretty close to the hurricane models at this same point. Might start to see some agreement in track soon.

NO WAY. There isn't a storm yet. More windshield wiping to come.

[WeatherEmperor]

Icon closing in on Florida




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[lsuhurricane]

This ICON run is absolutely bonkers!!!!

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like ICON has 969mb cane approaching the keys on Monday. Pretty far west of the last GFS

[WeatherEmperor]

Right offshore south florida now




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[stormlover2013]

At 102hrs ICON is just north of PR. A little south from last run and pretty close to the hurricane models at this same point. Might start to see some agreement in track soon.

Won’t be know agreement till we have a center and get more data

[eastcoastFL]

Is the ICON really about to put 2 canes in the gulf?!

[eastcoastFL]

At 102hrs ICON is just north of PR. A little south from last run and pretty close to the hurricane models at this same point. Might start to see some agreement in track soon.

Won’t be know agreement till we have a center and get more data

I’m not sure that’s how it works. Definitely will have more confidence at that point but you don’t need a center for models to agree on a future track. They’re just probably wrong until then

[caneseddy]

That's a monster HP on the ICON. No turn out to sea on this run. Double landfall for Florida. Middle Keys, then the Big Bend area/central Panhandle as a major