ATL: LAURA - Models

[toad strangler]

Maybe the GFS is starting to come around. If it wasn't for land interaction it may have shown a much stronger storm crossing the keys.

No land interaction to the N would probably mean barreling into S FL

Icon misses the islands and still stays south of the peninsula through the keys

That's the ICON.

[WeatherEmperor]

UKMET has landfall in South Florida but the text output shows "WEAK" and doesnt show the real intensity

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.08.2020 21.4N 71.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 22.7N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 24.2N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 26.2N 82.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[eastcoastFL]

It gets down to 987mb then weakens to 994 moving in the direction of NO

[Cataegis96]

Biggest takeaway here is that any TC that finds itself near the Bahamas/SFL/Eastern Gulf early next week without much interaction with the islands will end up being a big problem. Ensembles will be very telling tonight.

[caneseddy]

Maybe the GFS is starting to come around. If it wasn't for land interaction it may have shown a much stronger storm crossing the keys.

No land interaction to the N would probably mean barreling into S FL

Icon misses the islands and still stays south of the peninsula through the keys

Well the Keys is technically considered part of South Florida by many

[eastcoastFL]

No land interaction to the N would probably mean barreling into S FL

Icon misses the islands and still stays south of the peninsula through the keys

That's the ICON.

It’s the same track as the GFS. I’m just not sure why you think it has to hit SFL If it goes north of the islands. The ridge may come that far south

[toad strangler]

No land interaction to the N would probably mean barreling into S FL

Icon misses the islands and still stays south of the peninsula through the keys

Well the Keys is technically considered part of South Florida by many

LOL no

[eastcoastFL]

No land interaction to the N would probably mean barreling into S FL

Icon misses the islands and still stays south of the peninsula through the keys

Well the Keys is technically considered part of South Florida by many

Got me there but that’s why I said “peninsula”.

[Shell Mound]

Wow, please explain that one. These storms don't follow a script. Frances and Jeanne landfalled within TWO miles of each other and just TWO weeks apart in 2004. NOTHING since then.

Climatologically, hurricane landfalls are rare, and two (major?) hurricanes hitting the same area (Keys) within three years would be even rarer. But I could be wrong.

It would be unlikely but not impossible. 2004 would like to have a word in that case.

This is certainly true, but even with strong ridging in place, long-tracking systems of African—that is, AEW-related—origin that develop in the MDR are more likely than not to curve at some point, whether offshore or over/near land. The EPS, like the ICON, has been consistently suggesting at least a temporary weakness in six or seven days, given that a shortwave is shown to be lifting out at that time in advance of the next one, while ridging attempts to “bridge” in its wake. So if 98L were over/near South Florida at that time, it would be very close to the western edge of the Western Atlantic Ridge (WAR), and would be nearing a gap between the expanding Sonoran heat ridge and the WAR. Combined with the climatological salience I mentioned, this might imply that 98L would assume a west-northwestward track toward the south-central Bahamas and the Miami area, avoiding the Keys and the Greater Antilles to the north, and then curve northwestward and northward toward Tampa Bay and the Big Bend (Cedar Key). So maybe the evolution will run as follows: south-central Bahamas → Miami (landfall) → Tampa Bay → Cedar Key. Perhaps the trajectory will be somewhat similar to that of the 1949 Palm Beach hurricane, except that the initial landfall will be farther south, in the Miami area. We shall see.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS much slower

[eastcoastFL]

HMON is running now. Normally I’d skip this one and head to bed but I’m hooked

[Evil Jeremy]

For some perspective:

Current model plot for 98L: https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... orm_98.gif
Comparable plot for 92L (eventually Isaias): https://flhurricane.com/images/2020/sto ... 7-0756.gif

[toad strangler]

12z CMC no genesis through 72hrs but will clear PR to the N

[eastcoastFL]

GFS slowing and weakening in the Northern GOM

[FLpanhandle91]

Seems like GFS drops most steering at the 500mb level by the time it emerges in the Gulf and 98L really slows down. Could have quite a bit of time in the Gulf if this run verifies.

[Keldeo1997]

GFS is stalling Dorian style just right before landfall in the MS/AL gulf coast

[WeatherEmperor]

The model roaler coaster continues. Canadian comes in much weaker




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[eastcoastFL]

For some perspective:

Current model plot for 98L: https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... orm_98.gif
Comparable plot for 92L (eventually Isaias): https://flhurricane.com/images/2020/sto ... 7-0756.gif

A lot more recurve for Isa.

[stormlover2013]

Cmc is pretty good bit south

[toad strangler]

@90hrs the CMC is hangin out with the GFS and getting tangled up in the GA's as an undeveloped wave