ATL: LAURA - Models

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... To much land interaction to develop... Once exiting Cuba 98L up the W coast of FL to Panhandle, big shift E after 150 hours from 06z... HP not as strong after @150 hrs compared to previous runs...

[cp79]

12z models Lol see ya... will never amount to much if trends continue. Enjoy Island tour

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/747cc753b6391bf859a26701aa0be64d-full.png

Agree. It appears it’s going to take a visit to the Graveyard of hurricanes. Only concern is if does more of a Charley/Ivan and heads south of Haiti/Cuba. That seems more plausible right now compared to hit heading north of them.

Looking better for the east coast. The GOM still needs to keep an eye on it for the south track.

Are we looking at two different systems? I see a WPAC-like system with a well-organised structure and convection pulsing through the diurnal minimum.

Once this becomes a low-end tropical storm in another day and a half, expect steady intensification. Please do not sound “all clear” for anyone.

Not sounding the all clear. Just stating what the models are showing right now. Also giving a warning that this could also go more south and miss the islands all together. As for the east coast, anything is possible but I think 98L is more an issue for Florida and the GOM IF it becomes an issue at all. The HP will keep this from pulling north. But that’s not an all-clear. That’s just the way it’s looking now.

[SFLcane]

12z CMC stronger through 48hrs..

[SoupBone]

Gulf bound, whatever survives its track right through the Greater Antilles, as the GFS just like the Euro continues trending towards a strong Bermuda Ridge developing.

https://i.imgur.com/8RY0eVg.gif

I know I'm not imagining that every year, we hear that these models often overdue ridging. Is that accurate?

[caneseddy]

12z CMC stronger through 48hrs..

And much farther north, misses the islands and heading WNW and slowly intensifying.

[SFLcane]

12z CMC stronger through 48hrs..

And a bit farther north, may go north of the islands just barely or over PR. Goes north of the islands this run and heading WNW and slowly intensifying.

Further north indeed.

[toad strangler]

12z CMC stronger through 48hrs..

And a bit farther north, may go north of the islands just barely or over PR. Goes north of the islands this run and heading WNW and slowly intensifying.

Further north indeed.

https://i.imgur.com/oQ5cUcY.png

and MUCH more defined

[SFLcane]

[Blown Away]

12z Models so far seem to be showing not as strong HP after @100 hrs...

[cp79]

12z CMC stronger through 48hrs..

And much farther north, misses the islands and heading WNW and slowly intensifying.

I don’t see the north movement. This is a strong High. It’s going to be a tough climb to get north of them. Think there’s a better chance it goes south of them than north.

[SFLcane]

Much further north.

[SFLcane]

This might not end well..

[Nuno]

Gulf bound, whatever survives its track right through the Greater Antilles, as the GFS just like the Euro continues trending towards a strong Bermuda Ridge developing.

https://i.imgur.com/8RY0eVg.gif

I know I'm not imagining that every year, we hear that these models often overdue ridging. Is that accurate?

Depends on the model. GFS often overdoes troughs.

[DestinHurricane]

12z CMC stronger through 48hrs..

And much farther north, misses the islands and heading WNW and slowly intensifying.

I don’t see the north movement. This is a strong High. It’s going to be a tough climb to get north of them. Think there’s a better chance it goes south of them than north.

Going north of the islands is still a lot more likely than south. Several models show it going north, none show south. If it's a depression by tonight and can strengthen fairly quickly then it should gain some latitude and be able to go just north of those islands.

[chris_fit]

Cat2-ish

[toad strangler]

CMC heading right for S FL

[SFLcane]

Boom!!

[chris_fit]

Intensifying over Lake O

[caneseddy]

CMC landfall just north of downtown Miami heading WNW, exiting into the Gulf around Fort Myers and secondary landfall on the Panhandle.

[stormlover2013]

till we have a center these models going to be drunk