ATL: LAURA - Models

[AtlanticWind]

HMON would most likely miss FL

Wrong hits florida

[kevin]

12z HMON is pretty much the worst case scenario for Florida and Miami specifically.

[WeatherEmperor]

HMON near Florida landfall




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

i will say Levi mentioned the HMON init is broken. Should be thrown out

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON would most likely miss FL

Edit: Thought Andros was the last frame lol. It actually slams cat 3 right into Miami.

Yeah, I was going to say, I don't think that's likely that it would miss.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF... Still landfalls through Hispaniola, but maybe a 25 mile N shift, any subtle shift N in future will move off coast...

[AtlanticWind]

HMON near Florida landfall

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200819/2c04f9fe205339510d81798f0ddf96eb.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Same day Andrew hit

[Javlin]

12z HWRF... Still landfalls through Hispaniola, but maybe a 25 mile N shift, any subtle shift N in future will move off coast...

You mean skirt the EC?

[SouthFLTropics]

Interesting look from the 12z GEFS Ensembles...

[chris_fit]

[WeatherEmperor]

Interesting look from the 12z GEFS Ensembles...

[imi.imgur.com/sG0Bd1o.gif[/img]

Something is strange. Is thw GEFS still based on the old GFS or has it been upgraded to the new GFS??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Blown Away]

HP little weaker than yesterday’s run

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... Little stronger and appears N of islands

[SFLcane]

Interesting look from the 12z GEFS Ensembles...

https://i.imgur.com/sG0Bd1o.gif

Very interesting indeed.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro is coming in with a more defined vort than 00z. This may result in something. remains to be seen.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro is coming in with a more defined vort than 00z. This may result in something. remains to be seen.

It’s got the hard right turn E of SFL... Just a guess...

[SouthDadeFish]

Regardless of development, the Euro is faster than other models. By 12Z on Friday, it has the vort max near 59W, while 12Z GFS is at 57.5W and 12Z HWRF is way back at 55.5W.

[ConvergenceZone]

I wish there was a “model scorecard” thread somewhere, when it comes to previous storms. It would be nice to have a list of which model came the closest to the actual landfall and strength. That way we know that there is no selective memory going on. It’s easy to forget about models like ICON or CMC even if they end up nailing a storm

[Blown Away]

Regardless of development, the Euro is faster than other models. By 12Z on Friday, it has the vort max near 59W, while 12Z GFS is at 57.5W and 12Z HWRF is way back at 55.5W.

Seems Euro has that tendency to move systems to fast...

[Kazmit]

Euro is north of the islands. Little land interaction, and tighter than before.