ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#541 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:20 pm

Pretty large increase in European ensembles as 98 nears SFL. I just posted in the models thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#542 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:22 pm

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 19/1730Z

C. 12.2N

D. 45.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING WAS MEASURED AROUND THE LLCC YIELDING A DT
OF 1.5. THE MET AND PT AGREE AND THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO CLOUD
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#543 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 19/1730Z

C. 12.2N

D. 45.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING WAS MEASURED AROUND THE LLCC YIELDING A DT
OF 1.5. THE MET AND PT AGREE AND THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO CLOUD
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

12z = 11.5N
18z = 12.2N

Definitely solid WNW movement.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#544 Postby Jr0d » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:27 pm

While I think the storm threat level in the Florida Keys is about the same as yesterday, this being a potentially fast storm really makes it more difficult to prepare. If we are impacted, most guidance is showing Tuesday only 6 days away.

My concern is increasing a little but still no classified system to track and very iffy computer models. 6 day forecasts are already notoriously inaccurate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#545 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:30 pm

18z Best Track:WNW

At 1800 UTC, 19 August 2020, LOW INVEST 98 (AL98) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 12.5°N and 45.7°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 15 kt at a bearing of 285 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#546 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:36 pm

Still plenty of shear and mid-level dry air in front of this, SAL is not as bad. Maybe this is why the GFS and Euro are not developing 98L.

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#547 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:38 pm

aspen wrote:I marked up this graphic for both systems, but it's just as important for 98L, so I'll post it here. I've circled the rough areas where 97L and 98L should be in 96 hrs (97L) and 120 hrs (98L). I didn't go as far with 97L because models are even more iffy than 98L. Assuming 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles, it'll be running through higher and higher SSTs until it reaches 30-31C surface temperatures in the southern Bahamas. If we have a defined TC reach that area, and if the UL environment does turn out to be good, we could quickly have a problem on our hands. Of course, all of this depends on when 98L develops, how fast it's moving (the Euro is too fast for it to become anything significant), whether it hits any of the islands or not, and whether or not it could recurve, and if so, where.
https://i.imgur.com/qOWpiub.png

SST's are definitely not a problem it's other factors like shear and dry air.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#548 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:41 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#549 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:42 pm

Time for an upgrade!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#550 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:43 pm

SFLcane wrote:Time for an upgrade!


Not quite but we may be 12 hours away right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#551 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:43 pm

SFLcane wrote:Time for an upgrade!

Wouldn't surprise me.

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1296121548890345477


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#552 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:45 pm

Yes this is a depression. There is some strong shear out ahead of it though but this can change quickly just no telling this far out
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#553 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:47 pm

St0rmTh0r wrote:Yes this is a depression. There is some strong shear out ahead of it though but this can change quickly just no telling this far out

Supposedly the TUTT is supposed to lift out in time but there still be some shear and of course dry air.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#554 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:48 pm

The storm structure has improved quite a bit from yesterday, and is notably more concentrated. I would wait for any kind of wind pass to confirm a well defined circulation before any kind of upgrade. The pass from this morning showed a pretty broad circulation, interested to see how much has changed since then.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#555 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:50 pm

Do we know when next ASCAT scan will be?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#556 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:50 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:Do we know when next ASCAT scan will be?


Around 8pm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#557 Postby zhukm29 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:51 pm

SFLcane wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:Do we know when next ASCAT scan will be?


Around 8pm


I hope ASCAT doesn't miss this one, but it is ASCAT... :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#558 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:51 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:Yes this is a depression. There is some strong shear out ahead of it though but this can change quickly just no telling this far out

Supposedly the TUTT is supposed to lift out in time but there still be some shear and of course dry air.

The Bahamas have always been a notorious area for powerful storms to develop. I dont think itll do much until then but you never know. Hopefully Florida gets spared again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#559 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:51 pm

Convection is building fairly rapidly near the center of the circulation, and new banding features are starting to establish themselves
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#560 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:53 pm

Convection remains anemic on the eastern side. Don't think classification is going to happen this afternoon.
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