ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

https://i.imgur.com/j1N7afg.jpg

I’ve seen worse looking TS’s or Hurricanes. Don’t have to go to far back either! *Cough* Isaias *Cough*

Nothing can be worse than Half-Bare Barry.

We've had some real bad slop in prior seasons, looking at you "Tropical" storm Danny

[AutoPenalti]

I’m not really eager on them classifying it at the moment but what bothers me is that globals don’t see any of this happening.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking good to me!!

EURO and GFS:
Fingers in their ears and eyes closed while reading this thread.
Lalalalalalalal

[DestinHurricane]

Who thinks we'll get a TD or PTC at 11?

[toad strangler]

I’m not really eager on them classifying it at the moment but what bothers me is that globals don’t see any of this happening.

THe 12z Euro gave it the "ol college try" at 12z with a close in sharper vort then we have seen recently but to no avail.

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/j1N7afg.jpg

Quite impressive!

Not to me, the CoC is well south of that convection racing to the NW. IMO.
I am giving it another 24 hrs before it really starts getting its act together.
Systems that come out of the monsoonal trough always take a lot longer to come together and give trouble to models.

[supercane4867]

HWRF has a well structured TS 24 hours from now. Appears to be spot-on so far.

[Aric Dunn]

might be finally getting somewhere.. with those pops right under the MLC/LOW level circ.

if they expand enough should drive that to the surface pretty quickly.

[PTrackerLA]

I’m not really eager on them classifying it at the moment but what bothers me is that globals don’t see any of this happening.

THe 12z Euro gave it the "ol college try" at 12z with a close in sharper vort then we have seen recently but to no avail.

The 12z euro ensembles showed a big uptick in members showing tropical storms/hurricanes compared to the previous two runs. The Parallel GFS ensembles have been bullish as well. It will be frustrating/disappointing to see if the operational Euro and GFS whiff so bad on genesis, but what a coup if the euro is right.

[eastcoastFL]

I’m not really eager on them classifying it at the moment but what bothers me is that globals don’t see any of this happening.

THe 12z Euro gave it the "ol college try" at 12z with a close in sharper vort then we have seen recently but to no avail.

The 12z euro ensembles showed a big uptick in members showing tropical storms/hurricanes compared to the previous two runs. The Parallel GFS ensembles have been bullish as well. It will be frustrating/disappointing to see if the operational Euro and GFS whiff so bad on genesis, but what a coup if the euro is right.

The parallel is really interesting as it sees a big weakness and sends 98l to the Carolinas

[toad strangler]

THe 12z Euro gave it the "ol college try" at 12z with a close in sharper vort then we have seen recently but to no avail.

The 12z euro ensembles showed a big uptick in members showing tropical storms/hurricanes compared to the previous two runs. The Parallel GFS ensembles have been bullish as well. It will be frustrating/disappointing to see if the operational Euro and GFS whiff so bad on genesis, but what a coup if the euro is right.

The parallel is really interesting as it sees a big weakness and sends 98l to the Carolinas

Nothing is off the table.

[SFLcane]

Here we go folks!!

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are
showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands
should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could
be required as early as this evening.

[DestinHurricane]

Here we go folks!!

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are
showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands
should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could
be required as early as this evening.

We should get PTC at 11 then. Possibly a TD depending on the ASCAT.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Here we go folks!!

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are
showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands
should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could
be required as early as this evening.

We should get PTC at 11 then. Possibly a TD depending on the ASCAT.

IIRC, I think a PTC is for when tropical storm conditions are likely within 24 hours (may have that mixed up though), so the wording would suggest TD13 at 11pm should the current trends continue.

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/j1N7afg.jpg

Quite impressive!

Not to me, the CoC is well south of that convection racing to the NW. IMO.
I am giving it another 24 hrs before it really starts getting its act together.
Systems that come out of the monsoonal trough always take a lot longer to come together and give trouble to models.

It seems everything (the few we've had to date at least) that's developed in the MDR has come out of these--even Gonzalo had an origin similar to Dorian last year forming on the convective tail, but we haven't really had many traditional waves this year--is that a result of the WAM being more active?

[NDG]

Quite impressive!

Not to me, the CoC is well south of that convection racing to the NW. IMO.
I am giving it another 24 hrs before it really starts getting its act together.
Systems that come out of the monsoonal trough always take a lot longer to come together and give trouble to models.

It seems everything (the few we've had to date at least) that's developed in the MDR has come out of these--even Gonzalo had an origin similar to Dorian last year forming on the convective tail, but we haven't really had many traditional waves this year--is that a result of the WAM being more active?

My guess is probably so.
Even the waves that have emerged out of Africa sort of have taken dive SW towards the monsoonal trough extension into the Atlantic Ocean.

[msbee]

Here we go folks!!

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are
showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands
should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could
be required as early as this evening.

Guess its time to get the patio furniture in.

[SconnieCane]

Not to me, the CoC is well south of that convection racing to the NW. IMO.
I am giving it another 24 hrs before it really starts getting its act together.
Systems that come out of the monsoonal trough always take a lot longer to come together and give trouble to models.

It seems everything (the few we've had to date at least) that's developed in the MDR has come out of these--even Gonzalo had an origin similar to Dorian last year forming on the convective tail, but we haven't really had many traditional waves this year--is that a result of the WAM being more active?

My guess is probably so.
Even the waves that have emerged out of Africa sort of have taken dive SW towards the monsoonal trough extension into the Atlantic Ocean.

Yeah, we've had so many extremely convectively-active "Godzilla" waves come off Africa, it seems like at least one should have started wrapping up as soon as it hit the water by now, even though it is only now the cusp of peak season. Maybe part of what feels "off"/strange about this much-anticipated "extremely favorable" season.

[msbee]

Tropical Cyclone Alert in Effect
Effective19th August 2020 9:53 am
Expires20th August 2020 8:53 am
Description
A tropical cyclone alert (TCA) is in effect for Antigua and Barbuda. The TCA means, in this case, that there is a tropical disturbance (Tropical Disturbance AL98) in our monitored area; however, a tropical cyclone watch or warning is not required, at this time but could become necessary in the near future.

Given the normal uncertainty in the forecast track, intensity and size of the developing tropical cyclone, it is impossible to predict what exact tropical-cyclone-hazard values, if any, are expected to occur this far in advance. Notwithstanding, the threat level, based on the reasonable worst-case scenario, is elevated. There is the potential for limited impacts from storm-force-winds, high seas and minor flooding, resulting in life-threatening conditions, disruptions to daily life and minor damage to infrastructure. To be safe, have your hurricane disaster plan ready for execution and monitor closely.

At 8 am this morning, Tropical Disturbance AL98 was located about 1240 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda moving west-northwest at around 18 mph. This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are less than 35 mph. Strengthening is forecast and a tropical cyclone, in this case, a tropical depression or storm, is expected to form in 48 hours.

Most models have Tropical Disturbance AL98 becoming a tropical storm – Tropical Storm Laura, and passing near or over Antigua and Barbuda late Friday or Saturday. Hence, there is the potential for limited damage to property along with financial losses, as the country may have to close, for a while, perhaps similarly to when we had Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. However, it is still relatively early days and the system could still spare us any harm.

A tropical cyclone watch will likely be required in the next 24 hours.
Instructions
Residents are advised to monitor this developing system closely and have their hurricane plans prepared, as the system has the potential to cause life-threatening conditions and property damage this weekend.
ContactABMS Met Office at 462-3017, if confirmation of this message is needed

[eastcoastFL]

The 12z euro ensembles showed a big uptick in members showing tropical storms/hurricanes compared to the previous two runs. The Parallel GFS ensembles have been bullish as well. It will be frustrating/disappointing to see if the operational Euro and GFS whiff so bad on genesis, but what a coup if the euro is right.

The parallel is really interesting as it sees a big weakness and sends 98l to the Carolinas

That's actually a different system (the 10/40% highlighted from NHC) near the coast of Africa that makes landfall in the Carolinas. 98L cuts through Caribbean and moves south of Cuba, following a similar path to 97L:
https://i.ibb.co/NsgtpHc/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh60-180.gif

As others have stated on here earlier the globals will struggle until we have an established center. Dorian last season is a great example. An underforecasted center reformation to the north allowed for the system to avoid major interaction with GA. Still a wide array of possibilities with 98L, and the ensembles provide a better "overall" picture (if you were needing to create a forecast today).

Wow that one gets up there in a hurry then. At 288 hours it’s hitting the Carolina coast.