ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145366
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#681 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:58 pm

00z Best Track:

98L INVEST 200820 0000 12.9N 47.1W ATL 30 1008
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#682 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:59 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:If the euro and gfs are taking the season off I do not envy the hero’s at the nhc. It’s tough enough for them when they have all of their tools. Does anyone know how they would go about making a 5 day forecast if they can’t rely on any of the models? I know they did it long before models but how accurate were their forecasts back then?


You ever hear that old timey expression "those hurricanes - they have a mind of their own!" ... That was pre-model forecasting
5 likes   

User avatar
tiger_deF
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 468
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:47 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#683 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track:

98L INVEST 200820 0000 12.9N 47.1W ATL 30 1008


This may not mean much but the pressure has dropped from 1009 earlier in the evening
2 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#684 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:If the euro and gfs are taking the season off I do not envy the hero’s at the nhc. It’s tough enough for them when they have all of their tools. Does anyone know how they would go about making a 5 day forecast if they can’t rely on any of the models? I know they did it long before models but how accurate were their forecasts back then?

Back then they wouldn’t make more than a 3-day forecast I believe.


I actually miss the days of the 3 day cone.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#685 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:03 pm

sma10 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:If the euro and gfs are taking the season off I do not envy the hero’s at the nhc. It’s tough enough for them when they have all of their tools. Does anyone know how they would go about making a 5 day forecast if they can’t rely on any of the models? I know they did it long before models but how accurate were their forecasts back then?


You ever hear that old timey expression "those hurricanes - they have a mind of their own!" ... That was pre-model forecasting

Lol. I still feel that way when they hop around Hispaniola and Cuba as if it’s intentional
5 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4762
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#686 Postby psyclone » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:03 pm

I enjoy looking for other forecast products where folks are forced to make a call on where 98l and its sensible wx are headed before official products are issued from the NHC. Accordingly, take a look at the day 4-7 maps from the wpc. they take the system on the northside of the GA, through the florida straits and northward in the eastern gulf toward panama city.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day4nav_color.html
in addition the latest qpf outlook is very juicy over fl and the gulf, east weighted.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1597885230
Perhaps we just end up with a big, wet, Fay (2008) style tropical storm here? I'd bet on some version of that over nothing or a big hurricane although most anything is on the table.
4 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#687 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:07 pm

psyclone wrote:I enjoy looking for other forecast products where folks are forced to make a call on where 98l and its sensible wx are headed before official products are issued from the NHC. Accordingly, take a look at the day 4-7 maps from the wpc. they take the system on the northside of the GA, through the florida straits and northward in the eastern gulf toward panama city.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day4nav_color.html
in addition the latest qpf outlook is very juicy over fl and the gulf, east weighted.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1597885230
Perhaps we just end up with a big, wet, Fay (2008) style tropical storm here? I'd bet on some version of that over nothing or a big hurricane although most anything is on the table.


Man that drenches the whole state. I like that idea. I usually check my nws long term cast but it doesn’t give you much info this far out. Here’s what my local forecast discussion says:

Sunday-Wednesday...Forecast continues to hinge on the potential TC
development of a strong central Atlantic tropical wave and its WNW
track south of the strong ridge near and offshore Florida and the SE
CONUS. Differences remain in both the timing of the system`s closest
point of approach, and the attendant increase in moisture. Latest
op-runs show the ECM faster/weaker, and the GFS slower/stronger.
Have hedged POPs slightly lower for Sunday, as winds will back to
easterly by then. Rain chances then increase to (at least) likely
Mon-Tue with the passage of the wave, or whatever form it happens to
take. Slightly lower rain chances expected Wed compared to Mon-Tue,
albeit Mon and/or Tue may need to be increased in later forecasts.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#688 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:14 pm

Appears from a couple SCAT images that are 4 hours old .. are showing it is still elongated. we need a good burst of convection under that MLC.


still 3 more SCAT images to go. So we will see what they all say.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145366
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#689 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:17 pm

Looking very good.

Image
9 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2124
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#690 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:Looking very good.

https://i.imgur.com/2DIurT8.jpg

Looks very menacing. :eek: Huge too.
3 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#691 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:19 pm

cycloneye wrote:Looking very good.

https://i.imgur.com/2DIurT8.jpg


Huge
2 likes   

User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1298
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#692 Postby robbielyn » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:20 pm

Watch Levi Cowans video. He explains why Euro and GFS may verify
4 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D

User avatar
tiger_deF
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 468
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:47 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#693 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:21 pm

Kazmit wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Looking very good.

https://i.imgur.com/2DIurT8.jpg

Looks very menacing. :eek: Huge too.


Isaias, 98L, tis the season of gigantic elongated godzilla waves crossing the central Atlantic
8 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#694 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:28 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:If the euro and gfs are taking the season off I do not envy the hero’s at the nhc. It’s tough enough for them when they have all of their tools. Does anyone know how they would go about making a 5 day forecast if they can’t rely on any of the models? I know they did it long before models but how accurate were their forecasts back then?

Back then they wouldn’t make more than a 3-day forecast I believe.


I actually miss the days of the 3 day cone.


The cone did not exist when I started in 1980. Time for it to go away, though. It is pretty much useless now. Doesn't indicate current track uncertainty or impact potential. Perhaps a "cone" based on model ensembles that changes throughout the life of the storm and changes in size according to the size of the predicted wind field?
4 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#695 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:31 pm

robbielyn wrote:Watch Levi Cowans video. He explains why Euro and GFS may verify


I agree. Excellent discussion by Levi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vI1jrZkGoY&t=0s
2 likes   

User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#696 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:32 pm

Watched levi's video. He is pretty bearish on 98L. More bearish than the NHC.
3 likes   
Michael 2018

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#697 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:32 pm

All bark no bite... just yet
3 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#698 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:37 pm

robbielyn wrote:Watch Levi Cowans video. He explains why Euro and GFS may verify


Yes, that's what he said as far as 98L's approach to the Leewards. However, what you left out were his comments about nearly "ideal" conditions IN THE EVENT 98L finds itslef NORTH of the big islands. Re-watch that my friend.
9 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#699 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:37 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:Watched levi's video. He is pretty bearish on 98L. More bearish than the NHC.


Wrong. See my post above.
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#700 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:
robbielyn wrote:Watch Levi Cowans video. He explains why Euro and GFS may verify


I agree. Excellent discussion by Levi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vI1jrZkGoY&t=0s



levi's very bright. He does seem bearish though on this developing at all IF it doesn't find itself in the right environment..........Who knows, he may end up being right. He's highly educated and working on his PhD in Tropical Meteorology. So the man knows his stuff...
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests