ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Here's a surface plot with satellite. Red crosshairs mark the spot that recon found light and variable winds. Obs suggest a sharp trough/wave - so far...

[lrak]

What is a PV streamer?

Polar vortex streamer

Potential vorticity streamers
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppa ... ch_phd.php

So the potential vorticity streamers break up the Rossby wave and helps the storm to strengthen? Or if a Rossby wave is not occurring then they weaken the storm? Thanks....

[Hammy]

What is a PV streamer?

Polar vortex streamer

Potential vorticity streamers
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppa ... ch_phd.php

I didn't realize those could happen where it is, I always assumed they broke off from mid-latitude troughs.

[CyclonicFury]

I was shocked to see NHC rush to classify both 13L and 14L as TDs so soon - surprised they didn't wait for ASCAT or recon confirmation. Potential TC advisories could have been used instead.

[aspen]

Recon found SFMR winds of 40-45 kt...I don’t know if that’s enough for an upgrade, since everything else has been less than impressive.

[lrak]

Here's a surface plot with satellite. Red crosshairs mark the spot that recon found light and variable winds. Obs suggest a sharp trough/wave - so far...

http://wxman57.com/images/Fourteen1.JPG

This is great news then for the eventual GOM landfall?

[wxman57]

Recon found SFMR winds of 40-45 kt...I don’t know if that’s enough for an upgrade, since everything else has been less than impressive.

All flagged as suspect. FL winds 20-25 kts there. This is not a TS.

[Stormcenter]

I don’t think it will be downgraded to wave if some
may be thinking that.

[wxman57]

Here's a surface plot with satellite. Red crosshairs mark the spot that recon found light and variable winds. Obs suggest a sharp trough/wave - so far...

http://wxman57.com/images/Fourteen1.JPG

This is great news then for the eventual GOM landfall?

I'm remembering TS Don of 2011 when everyone was HOPING for some heavy rain and it didn't even bring a shower to TX. Maybe not that bad, but the 400-700mb RH forecast is for PLENTY of dry air across the NW Gulf at landfall. It may fall apart as it reaches TX.

[Nimbus]

The digging GOM trough looks like it is starting to retrograde west but still lots of shear on the eastern flank.
Still likely to be tropical storm warnings for the gulf coast given the projected forward speed at landfall.

[Kingarabian]

Polar vortex streamer

Potential vorticity streamers
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppa ... ch_phd.php

So the potential vorticity streamers break up the Rossby wave and helps the storm to strengthen? Or if a Rossby wave is not occurring then they weaken the storm? Thanks....

Would love to answer your question but it's out of my pay grade. Maybe GCANE can answer.

[Aric Dunn]

If they dont do a center pass this time... then it is definitely one of the weird low level invest they did in the last two storms. not sure why they do it..

[Kingarabian]

If they dont do a center pass this time... then it is definitely one of the weird low level invest they did in the last two storms. not sure why they do it..

Probably we'll see a tweet soon saying the center was tough to find or no defined center present. Like they did with Josephine.

[xironman]

This one looks ok

Time: 20:13:30Z
Coordinates: 14.233N 80.017W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.2 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 781 m (2,562 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.7 mb (29.88 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 133° at 23 kts (From the SE at 26.5 mph)
Air Temp: 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Dew Pt: 13.8°C (56.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 29 kts (33.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 35 kts (40.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (0.43 in/hr)

[Steve]

Potential vorticity streamers
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppa ... ch_phd.php

So the potential vorticity streamers break up the Rossby wave and helps the storm to strengthen? Or if a Rossby wave is not occurring then they weaken the storm? Thanks....

Would love to answer your question but it's out of my pay grade. Maybe GCANE can answer.

Might want to PM him because he keeps different hours than lots of people, and you never know when he's going to pop up (usually 4:30 or 5:00 am to drop some charts and maps).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Flight level winds do not support anything more than a TD.

[wxman57]

Flight level winds do not support anything more than a TD.

Or anything more than a wave axis. Systems can look really good on satellite, but you're not necessarily seeing a surface circulation.

[jasons2k]

Here's a surface plot with satellite. Red crosshairs mark the spot that recon found light and variable winds. Obs suggest a sharp trough/wave - so far...

http://wxman57.com/images/Fourteen1.JPG

This is great news then for the eventual GOM landfall?

I'm remembering TS Don of 2011 when everyone was HOPING for some heavy rain and it didn't even bring a shower to TX. Maybe not that bad, but the 400-700mb RH forecast is for PLENTY of dry air across the NW Gulf at landfall. It may fall apart as it reaches TX.

It's 2020. Sounds about right.

[NDG]

It has been a long time since I remember seeing at least a TD with such a great looking structure in the middle of the Caribbean this time of the year without being shredded apart.

[cainjamin]

This really is the year for big, sprawling tropical disturbances that take time to get thier act together. We've seen it with Hanna, Isaias, TD13 and now TD14 as well.