ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

So what happens when our little naked swirl runs into all that bubbling convection to the west?

https://i.imgur.com/7Z6x9hI.gif

typically more convection builds

Recon arrives and declares a depression.

[eastcoastFL]

NOAA flying into TD 13, kinda wish G-IV was there as well.

How long until they reach it?

[Hammy]

NOAA flying into TD 13, kinda wish G-IV was there as well.

What's the ETA?

[AutoPenalti]

NOAA flying into TD 13, kinda wish G-IV was there as well.

What's the ETA?

How long until they reach it?

Not sure, I would check the Recon thread for updates.

[SFLcane]

Recon/8-830 this evening

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, looks like G-IV won't depart Lakeland until Saturday.

Code: Select all

NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND TD 13 FOR
          23/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 22/1730Z.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1296544994929643524

[Blinhart]

FWIW, looks like G-IV won't depart Lakeland until Saturday.

Code: Select all

NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND TD 13 FOR
          23/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 22/1730Z.

They need to be flying all week as much as possible.

Are they doing any drones this season?

[stormwatcher95]

Conditions past the Islands will be much more similar to Dorian than Isaias conditions.

Thats what I was thinking. Eerily similar.

[SFLcane]

[Kingarabian]

FWIW, looks like G-IV won't depart Lakeland until Saturday.

Code: Select all

NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND TD 13 FOR
          23/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 22/1730Z.

Lack of G-IV missions this season is confusing me.

[TheDreamTraveler]

If TD14 forms faster and strengthens a lot it's really going to effect 13. Not sure to what extent though but definitely could hurt its development chances unless 13 can strengthen alongside it but right now 14 is looking way better

[Nuno]

FWIW, looks like G-IV won't depart Lakeland until Saturday.

Code: Select all

NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND TD 13 FOR
          23/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 22/1730Z.

Lack of G-IV missions this season is confusing me.

Mindboggling, how can you expect models to reflect accurate conditions when there is such a lack of sampling? Can anyone explain why G-IV missions are so sparse? Covid or funding?

[Blown Away]

I think TD13 has gained enough latitude and enough model support to be somewhat certain it will pass N of the big islands. NHC has been stating the uncertainty of this in past Disco's and I think now they have to address the elephant in the room, no go with EURO/GFS...

[AdamFirst]

If TD14 forms faster and strengthens a lot it's really going to effect 13. Not sure to what extent though but definitely could hurt its development chances unless 13 can strengthen alongside it but right now 14 is looking way better

TD14 is having problems on its own, more details in the TD14 thread. We'll see which one blinks first

[caneseddy]

From the 5:00 PM discussion. 75 mph hurricane into South Florida on Monday afternoon

Although the depression has changed little in strength since it
formed yesterday, the overall environment ahead of the system
favors gradual strengthening. The cyclone is forecast to remain
over warm water and in an area of light to moderate vertical wind
shear. Most of the guidance suggests a little more favorable
upper-level wind pattern once the system is north of the Greater
Antilles, but a track farther south would result in more land
interaction, which increases the intensity forecast uncertainty.
The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly slower rate of
strengthening over the next couple of days, but is unchanged at the
latter periods. The overall confidence in both the track and
intensity forecasts remain lower than normal.

[NDG]

From the 5:00 PM discussion. 75 mph hurricane into South Florida on Monday afternoon

The environment consisting of light to moderate vertical wind shear
is expected to allow for gradual strengthening over the next few
days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical
storm later today or tonight. The upper-level wind pattern is
expected to remain favorable in the latter portion of the forecast
period, and if there is minimal land interaction, a faster rate of
strengthening is possible at that time. The NHC intensity foreast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane by 96 hours, but it is a
little lower than the consensus aids at days 4 and 5 due to
uncertainty in how much the system will interact with the Greater
Antilles.

Copy and paste from previous forecast discussion.

[Do_For_Love]

Conditions past the Islands will be much more similar to Dorian than Isaias conditions.

Thats what I was thinking. Eerily similar.

Dorian was moving slower than 13 currently is and is projected to be moving though, right?

[DestinHurricane]

Conditions past the Islands will be much more similar to Dorian than Isaias conditions.

Thats what I was thinking. Eerily similar.

Dorian was moving slower than 13 currently is and is projected to be moving though, right?

Yes but that doesn't mean it still can't strengthen. Forward speed is less of a problem than sharar and dry air.

[Evil Jeremy]

Copy and paste from previous forecast discussion.

Can't really blame the NHC. I mean, has anything really changed since 11am?