ATL: LAURA - Models

[Cat5James]

This HMON run doesn't look like it's going to end well for our friend TD 13... Appears like Hispaniola is in its future.

On second thought...Hold the phone. The patient has life after a reformation around Puerto Rico. Emerging on the North side of the islands between PR and DR.

Always a plot twist.

[Blown Away]

This HMON run doesn't look like it's going to end well for our friend TD 13... Appears like Hispaniola is in its future.

On second thought...Hold the phone. The patient has life after a reformation around Puerto Rico. Emerging on the North side of the islands between PR and DR.

Must have initialized a center farther SW then what we were watching on visible.

[ConvergenceZone]

Through 36 hrs HWRF is much weaker than previous 12z run, an open wave through the Lesser Antilles.

Knew this was coming. Just a matter of time.
In MY opinion, the NHC will drop the maximum intensity down to 60 mph by tomorrow morning if doing a average of all models

[DestinHurricane]

Looks like HMON is weaker due to more land interaction. Maybe it initialized too far south.

[NDG]

Through 36 hrs HWRF is much weaker than previous 12z run, an open wave through the Lesser Antilles.

Knew this was coming. Just a matter of time.

But still develops it into a TS as tracks just offshore of P.R. early Saturday morning.

[cp79]

I think it’s dying a slow death. She’s struggling and more models starting to follow the Euro now.

[NDG]

Further south also so far on this run.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF further south, looks like it’s Island bound.

[rolltide]

I think now with more NOAA and Hurricane Hunters flying around the clock, they will have much better data to add to the models. That should help.

[NDG]

HWRF further south, looks like it’s Island bound.

So far staying away from the G.A., but much weaker so far.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think now with more NOAA and Hurricane Hunters flying around the clock, they will have much better data to add to the models. That should help.

I may be wrong, but I don’t think their data will make it into the models until 0z.

[NDG]

I think now with more NOAA and Hurricane Hunters flying around the clock, they will have much better data to add to the models. That should help.

I may be wrong, but I don’t think their data will make it into the models until 0z.

Correct, some of that data being collected by the current recon will be added to the 0z models.

[NDG]

Develops it into a hurricane late Sunday night. Still further south than previous 12z run.

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF caved? Not so fast...

[NDG]

[Blown Away]

Looks like HMON is weaker due to more land interaction. Maybe it initialized too far south.

I thought TD13 was on track moving WNW for the most part and would clear big islands to the N... There must have been an adjustment anticipating a center reformation the SW thus changing the angle of ascent bringing TD13 closer to big islands.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF bombs out in the Gulf.

[cp79]

The problem with 13 is going to be 14. I could see 13 developing around Florida if there were no other storms but the fact 14 is so big in size and has such a big outflow right and will be spinning In the Gulf is going to make it tough.

[tolakram]

I posted this warning in the discussion thread, same thing applies here.

Do not criticize other users, period. Report posts you feel are violating rules, otherwise don't post if all you are doing is criticizing. Post will be removed and users will be warned and/or lose posting privileges if this continues. THose of you who've been around a while know this is a last resort measure but s2k is here to provide friendly and vigorous discussions, not petty griping and ridiculing of others opinions.

Thanks.

[NDG]