ATL: MARCO - Models

[Nederlander]

Looks like models today are starting to converge on a SETX/SWLA landfall.

GFS - Vermillion Bay TS
GFS Para - Port Arthur Cat 2/3
Euro - Freeport TS
ICON - Bolivar/Galveston but weak signal
CMC - Drunk

I think the GFS parallel strength makes the most sense, but path wise maybe the operational GFS does (more so into LA than TX). All depends on the relationship of the strengths of 14 and the ridge to the NE.

[Steve]

ICON at 108. It's like eyes looking at you.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=108

I'm thinking that's not happening. And if you animate, they're hypnotized. That's got to be in the Top 5 [tm] of all time great model runs.

[stormlover2013]

Gfs upper Texas Coast

[Steve]

GFS with the 999 hit in SE Texas Tuesday morning. You can certainly buy the plausibility.

[Steve]

Gfs upper Texas Coast

Must be dry there because it doesn't show almost any rain.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=114

[stormlover2013]

Could be but still longs way out, heck models change so much today with this who knows what’s in store tommorow lol

[Steve]

Canadian also brings both systems into the Gulf continuing the wild theme with the models. Only good thing so far is that with the models showing both systems in the Gulf is that the energy is split enough that neither storm gets super intense. But the Canadian does get Florida pretty bad with 98L as it's coming up west Florida. 980's hit in South and SW FL and then upper 980's hit around Bay County. Meanwhile #14 stays weaker and eventually rotates down toward Vera Cruz as the next system comes off the Yucatan and interacts with remnant low pressure from #14 and also moves toward there.

So also LOL at the Canadian, but I'll throw it its due if it ends up being right. It keyed in a while ago on a weaker 14 sliding back toward Brownsville and NE Mexico with a stronger #13 coming up from the SE toward the N or NE Gulf.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2012&fh=96

[SoupBone]

Gfs upper Texas Coast

Must be dry there because it doesn't show almost any rain.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=114

There's a lot of dry air in Texas, and has been for several weeks. It's definitely not a moisture rich environemnt. It's been bone dry.

I think that's what some of the models are picking up on as far as intensity.

[captainbarbossa19]

Gfs upper Texas Coast

Must be dry there because it doesn't show almost any rain.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=114

There's a lot of dry air in Texas, and has been for several weeks. It's definitely not a moisture rich environemnt. It's been bone dry.

I think that's what some of the models are picking up on as far as intensity.

I'm waiting for someone to mention Tropical Storm Don (2011).

[ConvergenceZone]

I’m definitely much more bullish on this than TD 13. We will see how it plays out, we saw how quick Hanna got her act together in the HOT GOM

[HurricaneBrain]

Haha, Wxman did a couple hours ago.

Must be dry there because it doesn't show almost any rain.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=114

There's a lot of dry air in Texas, and has been for several weeks. It's definitely not a moisture rich environemnt. It's been bone dry.

I think that's what some of the models are picking up on as far as intensity.

I'm waiting for someone to mention Tropical Storm Don (2011).

[Texashawk]

Haha, Wxman did a couple hours ago.

There's a lot of dry air in Texas, and has been for several weeks. It's definitely not a moisture rich environemnt. It's been bone dry.

I think that's what some of the models are picking up on as far as intensity.

I'm waiting for someone to mention Tropical Storm Don (2011).

“The Don is dead.” Best. Disco. Ever. :-D

[Tireman4]

Haha, Wxman did a couple hours ago.

I'm waiting for someone to mention Tropical Storm Don (2011).

“The Don is dead.” Best. Disco. Ever. :-D

You realize if you bring up Don ( I remember we all remarking, "Wait, what the? That High Pressure Ridge just ate him. For you newbies, you really have to go find that thread. Seriously, the heartache we all felt...the shock and dismay at seeing a tropical system being eaten alive...LOL) , the High Pressure of Death Ridge or 2011, Porta will personally scold you. Just warning you folks. LOL...Yeah, the models have shifted. Lots of models runs to go

[FixySLN]

Must be dry there because it doesn't show almost any rain.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=114

There's a lot of dry air in Texas, and has been for several weeks. It's definitely not a moisture rich environemnt. It's been bone dry.

I think that's what some of the models are picking up on as far as intensity.

I'm waiting for someone to mention Tropical Storm Don (2011).

That was a July Storm though. I'm not buying it.

[NDG]

18z HWRF likes TD 14 better, 65 mph before hitting the Yucatan.

[Steve]

HMON with the 150 mile west shift from Mobile Bay to Grand Isle with Landfall Monday at 1pm. Looks like a North/NE weighted depiction and weakening coming in. Maybe more shifts west are in store?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2018&fh=96

[PTrackerLA]

HMON with the 150 mile west shift from Mobile Bay to Grand Isle with Landfall Monday at 1pm. Looks like a North/NE weighted depiction and weakening coming in. Maybe more shifts west are in store?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2018&fh=96

Good signs for now that these models have 14 weakening on approach to northern gulf coast. Won't hang my hat on it yet but if the system emerges out of the Caribbean and there's no core this is probably what you're gonna get.

[Steve]

So far the HWRF skims the coast of Honduras and winds up tight for a Cat 1 landfall near the Belize/Mexico border near San Pedro and Xcalak (don't think it's super populated there) only to cross the Yucatan SE-NW and lose its intensity emerging off as barely a TS (1007) and heading generally NW as a weaker entity.

102 hours it's a weak 1006mb TD probably at 26N 92.8W. Of course the HWRF devotes all the energy to 13 which it makes a solid Cat 2 coming up through the Keys.

[Steve]

HMON with the 150 mile west shift from Mobile Bay to Grand Isle with Landfall Monday at 1pm. Looks like a North/NE weighted depiction and weakening coming in. Maybe more shifts west are in store?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2018&fh=96

Good signs for now that these models have 14 weakening on approach to northern gulf coast. Won't hang my hat on it yet but if the system emerges out of the Caribbean and there's no core this is probably what you're gonna get.

It also favors TD #13 and has it cruising NW across the Gulf toward the LA Coast at the end of the 18z run. 985 so certainly it would bring some weather to people east of landfall on this run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=126

FWIW, HWRF (which like we said also prefers TD #13) has it in Cat-3 Major territory at 117 hours at 958 and about 27.6N and 85.6W. That's not good.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=114

[FixySLN]

Won't be the last flip flop we see in these runs. There's alot going on at once, making it hard to reach a consensus.