ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I hope recon flies back through that vort on satellite.. definite wind shift. with some convection building on the NE side.

Are they heading home?

[eastcoastFL]

"..our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well"

Who is "our"?

Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.

Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?

I think it’s an experimental NOAA product.

[sgastorm]

I hope recon flies back through that vort on satellite.. definite wind shift. with some convection building on the NE side.

Are they heading home?

Yes they are. Another mission tomorrow morning.

[eastcoastFL]

"..our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well"

Who is "our"?

Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.

Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?

This is the link to the model he is talking about
https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

[SFLcane]

"..our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well"

Who is "our"?

Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.

Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?

See my previous post. Yes he is the creator of some of these models. Accuracy is rather good

[eastcoastFL]

I hope recon flies back through that vort on satellite.. definite wind shift. with some convection building on the NE side.

Are they heading home?

Yes they are. Another mission tomorrow morning.

It always seems like the storms start firing off when recon heads home.. too bad but it’ll still be there when they get back.

[sma10]

But i mean seriously ... where the heck is the center of this thing?

[SFLcane]

Ok 13L...

[eastcoastFL]

Ok 13L...

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/21/2f4ac17042d34403e7e3bae7838fd5bb-full.png

You offended it earlier. Way to go man

[DestinHurricane]

This is definitely the best it has looked so far.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

"..our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well"

Who is "our"?

Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.

Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?

I couldn't speak to that. The model is just an experimental one ran by the HRD and doesn't appear to be generally used for TC guidance.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.

Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?

This is the link to the model he is talking about
https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

Weird. It looks like it stays broad then does an almost dorian-like center relocation to avoid Puerto Rico

[ozonepete]

Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.

Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?

See my previous post. Yes he is the creator of some of these models. Accuracy is rather good

Yeah it's Andy Hamilton, whom I like. You forgot to put it in quotes. But he states on twitter (where I guess you got that stuff) that his opinions are purely his own and not opinions of NOAA or HRD. That's important to note for our followers here.

[Blown Away]

I hope recon flies back through that vort on satellite.. definite wind shift. with some convection building on the NE side.

What is the coordinates of the area you are talking about?

[eastcoastFL]

Looking pretty darn favorable where we’re seeing that convection right now

[DestinHurricane]

Looking pretty darn favorable where we’re seeing that convection right now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Will likely have facorable conditions from here on out. Might strengthen a little ahead of schedule.

[eastcoastFL]

Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?

This is the link to the model he is talking about
https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

Weird. It looks like it stays broad then does an almost dorian-like center relocation to avoid Puerto Rico

It fakes left and goes right with PR then again with Cuba. I’d love to know what the models see that makes them predict movement like this.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking pretty darn favorable where we’re seeing that convection right now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Will likely have facorable conditions from here on out. Might strengthen a little ahead of schedule.

Looks like clear sailing from here till about Hispaniola but by then that pocket of shear could be gone too.

[Keldeo1997]

Levi just posted a video and the TLDW of it is "Wait till it gets past PR and see if it still there" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhA59vi2_j0

[Blown Away]

My 11pm position guess: 17.9N/56.1W