ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1361 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:09 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I hope recon flies back through that vort on satellite.. definite wind shift. with some convection building on the NE side.


Are they heading home?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1362 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:10 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
"..our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well"

Who is "our"?


Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.


Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?


I think it’s an experimental NOAA product.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
sgastorm
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 66
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:30 pm
Location: Valdosta, GA

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1363 Postby sgastorm » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:11 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I hope recon flies back through that vort on satellite.. definite wind shift. with some convection building on the NE side.


Are they heading home?


Yes they are. Another mission tomorrow morning.
0 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1364 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:11 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
"..our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well"

Who is "our"?


Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.


Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?



This is the link to the model he is talking about
https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1365 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:12 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
"..our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well"

Who is "our"?


Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.


Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?


See my previous post. Yes he is the creator of some of these models. Accuracy is rather good
0 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1366 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:12 pm

sgastorm wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I hope recon flies back through that vort on satellite.. definite wind shift. with some convection building on the NE side.


Are they heading home?


Yes they are. Another mission tomorrow morning.


It always seems like the storms start firing off when recon heads home.. too bad but it’ll still be there when they get back.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1367 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:13 pm

But i mean seriously ... where the heck is the center of this thing?
2 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1368 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:14 pm

Ok 13L...

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1369 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:15 pm



You offended it earlier. Way to go man :D
6 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1370 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:16 pm

This is definitely the best it has looked so far.
2 likes   
Michael 2018

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3354
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1371 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:17 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
"..our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well"

Who is "our"?


Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.


Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?


I couldn't speak to that. The model is just an experimental one ran by the HRD and doesn't appear to be generally used for TC guidance.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1372 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:17 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.


Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?


This is the link to the model he is talking about
https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

Weird. It looks like it stays broad then does an almost dorian-like center relocation to avoid Puerto Rico
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1373 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:18 pm

SFLcane wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.


Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?


See my previous post. Yes he is the creator of some of these models. Accuracy is rather good


Yeah it's Andy Hamilton, whom I like. You forgot to put it in quotes. But he states on twitter (where I guess you got that stuff) that his opinions are purely his own and not opinions of NOAA or HRD. That's important to note for our followers here. :)
3 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10152
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1374 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I hope recon flies back through that vort on satellite.. definite wind shift. with some convection building on the NE side.


What is the coordinates of the area you are talking about?
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1375 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:23 pm

Looking pretty darn favorable where we’re seeing that convection right now

Image
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1376 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:24 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Looking pretty darn favorable where we’re seeing that convection right now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF


Will likely have facorable conditions from here on out. Might strengthen a little ahead of schedule.
0 likes   
Michael 2018

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1377 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:25 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?


This is the link to the model he is talking about
https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

Weird. It looks like it stays broad then does an almost dorian-like center relocation to avoid Puerto Rico


It fakes left and goes right with PR then again with Cuba. I’d love to know what the models see that makes them predict movement like this.
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1378 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:27 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Looking pretty darn favorable where we’re seeing that convection right now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF


Will likely have facorable conditions from here on out. Might strengthen a little ahead of schedule.


Looks like clear sailing from here till about Hispaniola but by then that pocket of shear could be gone too.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Keldeo1997
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 637
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1379 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:32 pm

Levi just posted a video and the TLDW of it is "Wait till it gets past PR and see if it still there" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhA59vi2_j0
3 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10152
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1380 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:35 pm

My 11pm position guess: 17.9N/56.1W
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 235 guests