ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Levi just posted a video and the TLDW of it is "Wait till it gets past PR and see if it still there" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhA59vi2_j0

Seems to be the only reasonable forecast

[ConvergenceZone]

Levi just posted a video and the TLDW of it is "Wait till it gets past PR and see if it still there" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhA59vi2_j0

I don't have time to watch it at the moment, but is Levi Bullish or Bearish on TD 13 and 14?

[eastcoastFL]

My 11pm position guess: 17.9N/56.1W

I think it’s closer to 16.7 and 55w. It’s really hard to tell

[Aric Dunn]

Sure wish recon had done one more pass.. becasue it found that wind shift with the distinct 850 to 925mb vort on satellite.. all it needed was some convection.. and although currently sheared that will be ending and I bet one more pass would have been a much more defined circ..

Check both loops. Shhhhh the second link is my secret nighttime mixture for "circ hunting"

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/y1wnR2


https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 669&y=7022

[TheStormExpert]

Shear might be favorable with an anticyclone overhead but we still have some northwesterly mid-level shear.

[sma10]

Sure wish recon had done one more pass.. becasue it found that wind shift with the distinct 850 to 925mb vort on satellite.. all it needed was some convection.. and although currently sheared that will be ending and I bet one more pass would have been a much more defined circ..

Check both loops. Shhhhh the second link is my secret nighttime mixture for "circ hunting"

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/y1wnR2


https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 669&y=7022


https://i.ibb.co/Lkj5mzb/Capture.png

Do I see storms firing around the low level center in the past hour?
That is the exact spot Levi highlighted as the center

[Aric Dunn]

Sure wish recon had done one more pass.. becasue it found that wind shift with the distinct 850 to 925mb vort on satellite.. all it needed was some convection.. and although currently sheared that will be ending and I bet one more pass would have been a much more defined circ..

Check both loops. Shhhhh the second link is my secret nighttime mixture for "circ hunting"

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/y1wnR2


https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 669&y=7022


https://i.ibb.co/Lkj5mzb/Capture.png

Do I see storms firing around the low level center in the past hour?

you sure do.. tell tell sign..

[Keldeo1997]

Levi just posted a video and the TLDW of it is "Wait till it gets past PR and see if it still there" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhA59vi2_j0

I don't have time to watch it at the moment, but is Levi Bullish or Bearish on TD 13 and 14?

He's bearish on 14, Neutral "Wait and see" on 13

[SFLcane]

Sure wish recon had done one more pass.. becasue it found that wind shift with the distinct 850 to 925mb vort on satellite.. all it needed was some convection.. and although currently sheared that will be ending and I bet one more pass would have been a much more defined circ..

Check both loops. Shhhhh the second link is my secret nighttime mixture for "circ hunting"

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/y1wnR2


https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 669&y=7022


https://i.ibb.co/Lkj5mzb/Capture.png

Do I see storms firing around the low level center in the past hour?
That is the exact spot Levi highlighted as the center

Yes noticed this to.

[sma10]

Sure wish recon had done one more pass.. becasue it found that wind shift with the distinct 850 to 925mb vort on satellite.. all it needed was some convection.. and although currently sheared that will be ending and I bet one more pass would have been a much more defined circ..

Check both loops. Shhhhh the second link is my secret nighttime mixture for "circ hunting"

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/y1wnR2


https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 669&y=7022


https://i.ibb.co/Lkj5mzb/Capture.png

Do I see storms firing around the low level center in the past hour?

you sure do.. tell tell sign..

Levi conjectures that the big ball of convection to the south is associated with the midlevel vortex and might dumbbell up and around overnight and meet up with the low level tomorrow

[Cat5James]

Could those 2 areas of convection be the mid level circulation looking to merge with the lower level circulation? we shall see

[ConvergenceZone]

Levi just posted a video and the TLDW of it is "Wait till it gets past PR and see if it still there" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhA59vi2_j0

I don't have time to watch it at the moment, but is Levi Bullish or Bearish on TD 13 and 14?

He's bearish on 14, Neutral "Wait and see" on 13

Hmm, sounds like he was much more bullish about it last night then. At least towards the end of the last night's video. I don't blame him though. Nothing really to make one feel bullish about either one right now.

[KAlexPR]

Looks like the center may be relocating underneath the recent burst of convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Do I see storms firing around the low level center in the past hour?

you sure do.. tell tell sign..

Levi conjectures that the big ball of convection to the south is associated with the midlevel vortex and might dumbbell up and around overnight and meet up with the low level tomorrow

I have not seen his video.
but that convection appears to be nothing but a squeeze play between the elongated monsoon trough vort SE of barbados and the low to mid level circ to the north.

and yeah it could get pulled north to the larger vortex highlighted.

[toad strangler]

If any real strengthening happens with 13 it won’t start until tomorrow night says Levi. Whatever is there then, if anything substantial is left, will find near ideal conditions in the Bahamas. So go to bed

[Cat5James]

Worth noting that pressure has dropped from 1009 mb to 1004 mb.

[stormhunter7]

11pm update.... "WHILE THE PLANE COULDN'T LOCATE A DEFINITE CENTER, THERE'S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND CURVATURE IN THE PLANE'S WIND FIELD DATA TO HOLD ONTO THE SYSTEM AS 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR NOW. "

THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER 24 HOURS TONIGHT, LED BY THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS. I'M NOT INCLINED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES SINCE THE MODELS ARE ABOUT TO INGEST THE INFORMATION FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION, PLUS THE INITIAL DISORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER, BUT THE NEW TRACK IS STILL ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST, NORTH OF MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.

[Aric Dunn]

If any real strengthening happens with 13 it won’t start until tomorrow night says Levi. Whatever is there then, if anything substantial is left, will find near ideal conditions in the Bahamas. So go to bed

exactly when the model consensus said so..

[NDG]

Great discussion written by Eric Blake tonight, mentions the mid level shear and dry air over the next couple of days.

[CrazyC83]

Even if this opened up, I would think the NHC would maintain advisories as long as there is strong potential of re-genesis since watches would be needed.