ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1381 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:36 pm

Keldeo1997 wrote:Levi just posted a video and the TLDW of it is "Wait till it gets past PR and see if it still there" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhA59vi2_j0


Seems to be the only reasonable forecast
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1382 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:38 pm

Keldeo1997 wrote:Levi just posted a video and the TLDW of it is "Wait till it gets past PR and see if it still there" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhA59vi2_j0



I don't have time to watch it at the moment, but is Levi Bullish or Bearish on TD 13 and 14?
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1383 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:39 pm

Blown Away wrote:My 11pm position guess: 17.9N/56.1W


I think it’s closer to 16.7 and 55w. It’s really hard to tell
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1384 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:40 pm

Sure wish recon had done one more pass.. becasue it found that wind shift with the distinct 850 to 925mb vort on satellite.. all it needed was some convection.. and although currently sheared that will be ending and I bet one more pass would have been a much more defined circ..

Check both loops. Shhhhh the second link is my secret nighttime mixture for "circ hunting"

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/y1wnR2


https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 669&y=7022


Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1385 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:40 pm

Shear might be favorable with an anticyclone overhead but we still have some northwesterly mid-level shear.

Image
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1386 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Sure wish recon had done one more pass.. becasue it found that wind shift with the distinct 850 to 925mb vort on satellite.. all it needed was some convection.. and although currently sheared that will be ending and I bet one more pass would have been a much more defined circ..

Check both loops. Shhhhh the second link is my secret nighttime mixture for "circ hunting"

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/y1wnR2


https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 669&y=7022


https://i.ibb.co/Lkj5mzb/Capture.png


Do I see storms firing around the low level center in the past hour?
That is the exact spot Levi highlighted as the center
Last edited by sma10 on Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1387 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:42 pm

sma10 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Sure wish recon had done one more pass.. becasue it found that wind shift with the distinct 850 to 925mb vort on satellite.. all it needed was some convection.. and although currently sheared that will be ending and I bet one more pass would have been a much more defined circ..

Check both loops. Shhhhh the second link is my secret nighttime mixture for "circ hunting"

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/y1wnR2


https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 669&y=7022


https://i.ibb.co/Lkj5mzb/Capture.png


Do I see storms firing around the low level center in the past hour?


you sure do.. tell tell sign..
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1388 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:43 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Keldeo1997 wrote:Levi just posted a video and the TLDW of it is "Wait till it gets past PR and see if it still there" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhA59vi2_j0



I don't have time to watch it at the moment, but is Levi Bullish or Bearish on TD 13 and 14?


He's bearish on 14, Neutral "Wait and see" on 13
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1389 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:44 pm

sma10 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Sure wish recon had done one more pass.. becasue it found that wind shift with the distinct 850 to 925mb vort on satellite.. all it needed was some convection.. and although currently sheared that will be ending and I bet one more pass would have been a much more defined circ..

Check both loops. Shhhhh the second link is my secret nighttime mixture for "circ hunting"

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/y1wnR2


https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 669&y=7022


https://i.ibb.co/Lkj5mzb/Capture.png


Do I see storms firing around the low level center in the past hour?
That is the exact spot Levi highlighted as the center


Yes noticed this to.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1390 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
sma10 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Sure wish recon had done one more pass.. becasue it found that wind shift with the distinct 850 to 925mb vort on satellite.. all it needed was some convection.. and although currently sheared that will be ending and I bet one more pass would have been a much more defined circ..

Check both loops. Shhhhh the second link is my secret nighttime mixture for "circ hunting"

https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/y1wnR2


https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 669&y=7022


https://i.ibb.co/Lkj5mzb/Capture.png


Do I see storms firing around the low level center in the past hour?


you sure do.. tell tell sign..


Levi conjectures that the big ball of convection to the south is associated with the midlevel vortex and might dumbbell up and around overnight and meet up with the low level tomorrow
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1391 Postby Cat5James » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:45 pm

Could those 2 areas of convection be the mid level circulation looking to merge with the lower level circulation? we shall see
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1392 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:45 pm

Keldeo1997 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Keldeo1997 wrote:Levi just posted a video and the TLDW of it is "Wait till it gets past PR and see if it still there" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhA59vi2_j0



I don't have time to watch it at the moment, but is Levi Bullish or Bearish on TD 13 and 14?


He's bearish on 14, Neutral "Wait and see" on 13



Hmm, sounds like he was much more bullish about it last night then. At least towards the end of the last night's video. I don't blame him though. Nothing really to make one feel bullish about either one right now.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1393 Postby KAlexPR » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:46 pm

Looks like the center may be relocating underneath the recent burst of convection.

Image
Last edited by KAlexPR on Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1394 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:48 pm

sma10 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
sma10 wrote:
Do I see storms firing around the low level center in the past hour?


you sure do.. tell tell sign..


Levi conjectures that the big ball of convection to the south is associated with the midlevel vortex and might dumbbell up and around overnight and meet up with the low level tomorrow


I have not seen his video.
but that convection appears to be nothing but a squeeze play between the elongated monsoon trough vort SE of barbados and the low to mid level circ to the north.

and yeah it could get pulled north to the larger vortex highlighted.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1395 Postby toad strangler » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:49 pm

If any real strengthening happens with 13 it won’t start until tomorrow night says Levi. Whatever is there then, if anything substantial is left, will find near ideal conditions in the Bahamas. So go to bed :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1396 Postby Cat5James » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:50 pm

Worth noting that pressure has dropped from 1009 mb to 1004 mb.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1397 Postby stormhunter7 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:51 pm

11pm update.... "WHILE THE PLANE COULDN'T LOCATE A DEFINITE CENTER, THERE'S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND CURVATURE IN THE PLANE'S WIND FIELD DATA TO HOLD ONTO THE SYSTEM AS 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR NOW. "

THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER 24 HOURS TONIGHT, LED BY THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS. I'M NOT INCLINED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES SINCE THE MODELS ARE ABOUT TO INGEST THE INFORMATION FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION, PLUS THE INITIAL DISORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER, BUT THE NEW TRACK IS STILL ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST, NORTH OF MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1398 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:54 pm

toad strangler wrote:If any real strengthening happens with 13 it won’t start until tomorrow night says Levi. Whatever is there then, if anything substantial is left, will find near ideal conditions in the Bahamas. So go to bed :ggreen:


exactly when the model consensus said so.. :P
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1399 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:54 pm

Great discussion written by Eric Blake tonight, mentions the mid level shear and dry air over the next couple of days.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1400 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:55 pm

Even if this opened up, I would think the NHC would maintain advisories as long as there is strong potential of re-genesis since watches would be needed.
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