ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

NHC track is way south of the 06z HWRF

[HurricaneFrances04]

This is what I call a forecast on a pattern from a strong Bermuda ridge, which many people doubted it was going to show up.

https://i.imgur.com/kCaR5CB.png

So much for the pattern being similar to Oct 2016. Track looks more like Georges.

[AutoPenalti]

NHC track is way south of the 06z HWRF

Still missing the islands, just barely.

[chaser1]

I posted earlier about Laura but it got deleted. But I said that we ended up getting Laura out of TD 13 after all.

Yeah, i'll be honest..... I would have certainly pegged TD 14 to have been named first. Then again, I would have never upgraded "Laura" to a TD to begin with. Not arguing with the winds north of center, just a matter of old school definition of structure (but that's a horse well beaten and stirred LOL).

[SFLcane]

Which makes sense since HWRF has been considerably way to strong.

[Dean4Storms]

Agree with Aric here..... The energy swinging around counterclockwise now East of the Recon LLC fix is likely to take over once it gets North of the current LLC and make a jump in latitude. It's still a string out system and very disorganized.

ASCAT shows that area recon found is the dominant center though. Definitely some reorganization possible but for now there is no center to the east.

There is a circulation out east of the Recon fix, could be above the surface. However, if you look at WV imagery the moisture feed is coming directly into it and the Recon fix center is slowly getting choked off by it from the moisture feed. Really looks like a broad center between them causing a loop around each other. We will see later what happens.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=MIMICTPW2E.100&center=21.37124437061832,-64.75341796875001&zoom=5&width=1661&height=920&basemap=bw&labels=line&view=leaflet&timeproduct=MIMICTPW2E&timespan=-30t&animationspeed=100&animate=true

[Category6]

Is it too early to signal the "all clear" for Miami-Dade and Broward counties? It certainly appears that our luck will continue!

[ConvergenceZone]

If it goes down the middle of the cone, it’s toast, a goner! A barely established tropical storm will fall apart even with that much partial land interaction,

[AutoPenalti]

Is it too early to signal the "all clear" for Miami-Dade and Broward counties? It certainly appears that our luck will continue!

To answer your question, Yes.

[Nimbus]

NHC track is way south of the 06z HWRF

Still missing the islands, just barely.

I had thought a few days ago that the center would track inland along the south shore of Puerto Rico.
Fortunately it doesn't look like hurricane conditions, but folks in PR might want to watch the wind directions as a wind from the East would be a lot stronger than if the track had stayed well north of the islands.
I wouldn't know which end of the house to put shutters on at this point.

[supercane4867]

Any significant intensification may not occur until it enters the Gulf. Frederic 79 could be a good analog for this.

[Cat5James]

Is it too early to signal the "all clear" for Miami-Dade and Broward counties? It certainly appears that our luck will continue!

Yes too early... center reformations still possible which will have an effect on the overall track

[chaser1]

Most Mainland SFL "Dade and Broward" counties now officially out of the cone. The luck just continues for us but could be a big problem for the gulfcoast if the circulation survives.

(Forecasted by NHC) Marco will just be emerging off the N. Coast of Yucatan Sunday 8:00 am. I have to think that this will cause Laura to begin lifting a tad more northerly beginning late Sunday evening. This could put a greater risk to the lower Keys, but you're right..... Miami Dade and Broward will have hopefully dodged another bullet. I still think that Marco will result in Laura to track a bit more east and track closer to Panama City initially, and then a last minute track adjustment toward Pensacola from the ESE

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/1296828960903397377

[EquusStorm]

Plowing across the Greater Antilles didn't affect Fay '08 very much. Still pretty early to call anything definitive.

[chaser1]

Is it too early to signal the "all clear" for Miami-Dade and Broward counties? It certainly appears that our luck will continue!

Definitely is too early to suggest any "all clear" for South Florida. One can really only extrapolate from the most recent recon fix, satellite image, modeling, etc to suggest that a risk to South Florida has lessened. I certainly think that a track through the Florida Straits seems more likely at this time (emphasis on "at this time" lol). Honestly though, this is no different then watching a football game and the momentum that one particular team has at that moment in time. It can all change in a matter of hours. Until we really have a well defined COC, then it's really hard to project how it will be impacted by land or steering mechanisms.

[Aric Dunn]

There are Still soo many scenarios that could play out in the next 24 hours..

not only do we have to watch for reformation in a general gyre sense..

we have to watch for reformation do to eddy formations as it passes the NE islands.

then we have to watch for the GOOD OLE Puerto Rico bounce around. This occurs from the northerly wind across the island which more often than not cause a nearby system to bounce around to the north side of the island.

12z models are not going to be much use. so look at them for fun..

come 18z models. we should have some G-IV data and hopefully a better defined (possibly reformed) center for the models.

Then by 00z... we have another recon, the G-IV data, and we will know much better the shape placement and movement of the "center" as it approaches PR.

Come tomorrow we will know the track with good confidence.

[cheezyWXguy]

Which makes sense since HWRF has been considerably way to strong.

https://i.imgur.com/etiWg1q.jpg

I think it’s actually in the realm of possibilities, albeit at the upper end. If it were strengthening right out the gate I’d agree with you, but it’s handled Laura’s evolution reasonably well so far and doesn’t show any real strengthening until it’s near Puerto Rico.

[Jr0d]

Is it too early to signal the "all clear" for Miami-Dade and Broward counties? It certainly appears that our luck will continue!

To answer your question, Yes.

Way too early! North of Palm Beach is likely in the clear.

The center will likely reform again...the South 'adjustment' that was made was a result of a center reforming further south.

After it clears Hispaniola then I would feel more confident about the track and intensity. This can be shredded into an open wave and South Florida won't see much or it could end up just north of the mountains and be in an environment favorable for rapid intensification as an intact cyclone.

This makes a particularly difficult decision for Monroe County/the Florida Keys. If Laura misses the mountains we will likely experience a strengthening hurricane that warrants evacuations by tomorrow morning, however if it gets shredded by the mountains this will bring some heavy squalls and not much more.

So far I have not heard any official statement or plan of action from Monroe county or the City of Key West.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Radars:

Guadeloupe / Martinique:
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

Eastern Carib Composite from Barbados site:
https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... 700&MAPP=1

Carib Composite from Curacao site:
https://www.meteo.cw/rad_comp_loop.php? ... CC&Sws=R11

Eventually Puerto Rico:

NWS Short range:
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?ove ... roduct=N0R

NWS Long range:
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?ove ... roduct=N0Z

Weather Underground Short range (long range in drop down menu):
https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/pr/san-juan/jua





Satellite:

NOAA STAR:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL132020

RAMMB/CIRA:
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... r=al132020

CIMSS:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

SSEC RealEarth GOES East Full Disk (every 10 minute):
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... ter=20,-73

SSEC RealEarh Global Imagery (like AVN, hourly):
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center ... obalir-avn

RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER (hard to operate sometimes):
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/

College of DuPage:
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

Tropical Tidbits:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

NASA visible:
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... te=ir1.pal
From: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/





1 minute satellite imagery:

1 minute visible:
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

1 minute IR:
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/s ... ct=10p35um

Various:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/m ... 7N&lon=60W

GeoColor:
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 000&y=1000