ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

another 45 min added on..

Circ becoming more defined.. im sure there are some eddys to the north. but they have no convection..

this area is coming together.

https://i.ibb.co/JB4fRZT/ezgif-com-gif-maker-10.gif

The center is so far south of forecast that it could change everything down the line.

I guess that’s good news and bad news.
Bad news in that it means more flooding rains for the islands, but Good news is that would increase the probability of what remains of Laura to get shredded to nothingness as it crosses the length of the islands

[CrazyC83]

another 45 min added on..

Circ becoming more defined.. im sure there are some eddys to the north. but they have no convection..

this area is coming together.

https://i.ibb.co/JB4fRZT/ezgif-com-gif-maker-10.gif

The center is so far south of forecast that it could change everything down the line.

It should still rotate around to the NE then North as it deepens. so it shold end up in the same general area.. but may end up making it slower..

In other words, giving more time for the ridge to build in. The center on radar looks like it is just east of Dominica.

[bella_may]

https://twitter.com/nwsneworleans/statu ... 75200?s=21

[shiny-pebble]

I wouldn't count on the islands shredding this if it goes over them. We've seen multiple times where the center reforms north of the islands. Just something to think of.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Aric Dunn]

The center is so far south of forecast that it could change everything down the line.

It should still rotate around to the NE then North as it deepens. so it shold end up in the same general area.. but may end up making it slower..

In other words, giving more time for the ridge to build in. The center on radar looks like it is just east of Dominica.

yeah technically.. though td 14 clearly is not following the rules and is well right and north of track.. probably going to shoot the Yucatan Channel. that might keep the ridge from spreading too quickly.

a lot of variables.

[StPeteMike]

What’s the chances of the trough not dying as fast as forecasted? Ultimately that would mean a ridge not as west. Seems like the trough now is stronger than expected.

[DestinHurricane]

Just my opinion:

Texas: 20%
Louisiana: 50%
SELA into MS: 20%
AL and Panhandle: 10%

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[Sanibel]

The center should show up on Puerto Rican Long Range and clear up a lot of things tomorrow...

[ConvergenceZone]

The center should show up on Puerto Rican Long Range and clear up a lot of things tomorrow...

Yep, let the wobble watching commence lol

[Aric Dunn]

ALso remember .. although there is a good llc that is forming east of Guadalupe..

Dorian went through the islands the center jump north quite a bit.

So as this passes over the islands seeing another reformation somewhere is quite possible.

as well as the system doing the "Puerto Rico bounce around"

[Hammy]

View from angle, you can see some of the lower clouds that aren't covered by the canopy

https://i.imgur.com/kg22Ee6.mp4

edit: I tried to get a gif but it gave me an mp4 instead

[TJRE]

[

I wish they would give us a consolidated GOM map with both storms predicted tracks and all watches and warnings shown so you can get the big picture.

\\

blend from Cowan's workshop-https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
a bit crude ....OFCI at 120hrs
shaded boxes at 96hrs

[ConvergenceZone]

I still say that Laura and TD 14 aren’t acting as if we a moving into the end of August at all. They are both behaving as if it’s June or July. I did not expect this

[Hammy]

ALso remember .. although there is a good llc that is forming east of Guadalupe..

Dorian went through the islands the center jump north quite a bit.

So as this passes over the islands seeing another reformation somewhere is quite possible.

as well as the system doing the "Puerto Rico bounce around"

Low is probably mid-level at the moment--weaker storms indicating the low cloud flow is still out of the south over Guadeloupe. It seems like the LLC and MLC might actually be rotating around each other at the moment, something the CMC showed yesterday.

[msbee]

Well, so far Laura is a non event for St Maarten.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF a little north this run now just missing the peninsula and going through the upper keys vs south of key west last run

[tropicwatch]

Structurally I think TD 14 is better than Laura right. HH had no problem finding a distinct center in 14 and it is not far from the current blow up of convection. HH having trouble finding a distinct center in Laura.

[JaxGator]

Structurally I think TD 14 is better than Laura right. HH had no problem finding a distinct center in 14 and it is not far from the current blow up of convection. HH having trouble finding a distinct center in Laura.

They might find a new center or a forming one in the convection East of the Islands.

[eastcoastFL]

So at the 111hr HWRF heading for bama/Florida border as 935mb hurricane

That would be terrible

[Aric Dunn]

Eddys all over the place like Dorian at the moment. east we have the circ with solid banding at any moment if convection build west of the islands we could see some jump as well.