ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Like I said a while back, if this system keeps missing forecast points to N and E colossal bust could be setting up track wise. Don’t like to lean so hard against modeling but that trough seems to be having a pretty big impact on path here

[shiny-pebble]

How much time does this have left before it hits higher shear?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Kazmit]

I did not expect this thing to have gravity waves when I woke up.

[GCANE]

57 mm/hr rain rate and not even in the meat of the tower.
Pinhole to boot.
Cat 2 not out of the question.

[tiger_deF]

How much time does this have left before it hits higher shear?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The farther North and East it goes the better it can orient itself with the anticyclone and in the direction of the trof and therefore face lower shear

[ronjon]

If Marco is going more NE does that mean the ridge is weaker than we expected?

Or trough stronger and slower to lift out to the north than forecast.

[northjaxpro]

I find these tiny cyclones so fascinating. They have and create their own unique environment. The models never can grasp a great handle on them in forecasting becuase of their size, and they can intensify rapidly if given fairly decent upper level conditions.

[wxman57]

Looks like recon has confirmed that Marco has weakened to a tropical wave.

I have it at hurricane strength later today. Good news is that the excellent outflow provided by the deep trof to the west will soon turn into shear, which may cause Marco to weaken to a weak TS or a depression when it reaches Texas Tuesday evening. Hope we at least get some rain. GFS indicates very little moisture by then.

[northjaxpro]

If Marco is going more NE does that mean the ridge is weaker than we expected?

Or trough stronger and slower to lift out to the north than forecast.

This. The trough was stronger than anticipated and will be slower to lift out.

[ronjon]

Like I said a while back, if this system keeps missing forecast points to N and E colossal bust could be setting up track wise. Don’t like to lean so hard against modeling but that trough seems to be having a pretty big impact on path here

There is one model that supports this solution more or less. The 06z NAVGEM. It strengthens Marco and tracks it north into PCola.

[tropicwatch]

Haven't seen a vortex message from there last pass yet. Nevermind:

288
URNT12 KNHC 221324
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142020
A. 22/12:50:10Z
B. 20.48 deg N 085.13 deg W
C. 850 mb 1393 m
D. 995 mb
E. 258 deg 22 kt
F. OPEN S
G. C6
H. 57 kt
I. 061 deg 31 nm 12:39:30Z
J. 155 deg 69 kt
K. 086 deg 10 nm 12:46:30Z
L. 52 kt
M. 237 deg 4 nm 12:51:30Z
N. 317 deg 48 kt
O. 247 deg 3 nm 12:51:00Z
P. 18 C / 1537 m
Q. 22 C / 1531 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF309 0514A MARCO OB 11
MAX FL WIND 69 KT 086 / 10 NM 12:46:30Z
;

[aspen]

Such a tiny and sharp pressure gradient means Marco can very quickly bomb out. However, the one thing that’s holding him back is a pretty lackluster western quadrant, which has very little winds. Convection needs to fire there and help close off the eye recon apparently found trying to form; then we could get Hurricane Marco.

[GCANE]

In other words it right under the center of the ARWB

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1297161698311208963

[GCANE]

6 nm wide eye

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297163538243387392

[tiger_deF]

6 nm wide eye

https://i.imgur.com/eAZNsEM.png

Not even a hint of a westerly component

[Nederlander]

Like I said a while back, if this system keeps missing forecast points to N and E colossal bust could be setting up track wise. Don’t like to lean so hard against modeling but that trough seems to be having a pretty big impact on path here

There is one model that supports this solution more or less. The 06z NAVGEM. It strengthens Marco and tracks it north into PCola.

Missing forecast points right now shouldn’t have a whole lot of bearing on future track as Marco is expected to miss the weakness and get blocked by the ST ridge building back in causing him to bend back westward.

[ThetaE]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297163538243387392

Second pass looked more symmetric. Still not perfect, but solid TS winds on the SW side now.

[Steve]

Radial / Gravity Waves on the top layer of the CDO from a continuous firing hot tower.
100% sure RI is underway.
Somebody needs to wake up Aric.

Damnit G. The other G word. I stayed up past 2 and set the alarm to get up at 6:15 and go to the store and get a few more cases of water, booze and red bulls. Plan was to crash for 3-4 more hours. Instead I made a cup of coffee. haha No sleep during tropical threats for weather geeks :/

[hurricanehunter69]

Microcane Marco...MGC

Coincidently.....Yet again...Another small TC named Marco?